The following article is based on the results of our most recent air war survey.

Air War: Obama's message is undeveloped; McCain's is risky

February 16, 2007 

 

Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) needs his message to match his appeal, and Sen. John McCain's (R-Ariz.) campaign may be in trouble if troop escalation continues to be an unpopular policy, according to Wilson Research Strategies Inc. Comparing two ads, one from DraftObama lauding the Illinois lawmaker as a potential presidential candidate and the other from MoveOn.org taking McCain to task for his support of President Bush's plan to send additional troops to Iraq, Wilson Strategies conducted a survey that demonstrates the potential weaknesses of both men as they travel the campaign trail. The DraftObama ad illustrates Obama's "freshness," and, according to the survey, scored above average in all categories, including "strong message" and "appealing." The ad scored particularly high among responders identified as lobbyists and senior K Street executives, as well as with those identified as political activists. But according to Wilson Research Strategies Chief Executive Chris Wilson, when compared to the strong message score, the appealing score indicates Obama's campaign will need to go beyond the senator's early successes and strive to define his campaign's stands on policy. "Obama's own advertising is going to have to do a much better job of capturing a message and delivering a message than this ad does," Wilson said. The ad begins with a picture of President Bush before moving on to images of Obama among "average" people. The audio is comprised of excerpts from his now-famous speech from the 2004 Democratic National Convention. At the end, the screen fades to a two-word promotion: "Believe again." By contrast, MoveOn.org's ad criticizing McCain for supporting Bush's plan to send additional troops to Iraq indicates that the strategy was actually McCain's brainchild and shows several images of McCain and the president in some form of embrace. The ad closes by saying, "The McCain Plan to escalate. Going from bad to worse." While the ad registered below average in most categories, including credibility and appeal, it did elicit higher-than-average responses from those surveyed in the category of strength of message, particularly among Democrats and political activists. "I don't think it's a question that it clearly resonates," Wilson said. "If the issue of troop escalation is as strong of a campaign issue 18 months from now as it is today, ads like these would create serious issues for a McCain-for-president campaign." On the bright side for McCain supporters, the ad got average marks from Republicans and independents surveyed for strength of message, effectiveness, appeal, memorability and credibility. When the ads were compared side by side, 67 percent of those surveyed thought the DraftObama ad was more effective, compared to 27 percent who thought the MoveOn.org ad was more effective. Sam Youngman Working with The Hill for its Air War feature, Wilson Research Strategies e-mails campaign or issue ads to survey participants who view the ads and rate their effectiveness on several criteria.