NPEA Air Wars WRS Insider Blog


Corzine, Dodd TV ads score below average
Chris Christie, Jon Corzine, Chris Dodd


Christie's Corruption-fighting Scores on TV
Chris Christie, Charlie Crist, DSCC, Marco Rubio, Health Justice, Terry McAuliffe


Air Wars Analysis March 26-31, 2009
Barack Obama, Jim Tedisco, Scott Murphy, Card Check, Harry Reid


Early GOP ad on stimulus uninspiring
Harry Reid, America's Power, Chamber of Commerce, Reality Coalition, American Rights At Work


Hastings Wyman, Southern Political Report 'Grits'
James Inhofe (R-OK), Tom Feeney (R-FL)


Air Wars Analysis September 29 - October 30, 2008
John McCain, Barack Obama, Tom Feeney (R FL), Tim Bee (R AZ), Chris Shays (R CT), Gabrielle Giffords (D AZ)


Air War: Feeney’s mea culpa ad scores, honestly
John McCain, Barack Obama, Tom Feeney (R FL), Tim Bee (R AZ), Chris Shays (R CT), Gabrielle Giffords (D AZ)


Air Wars Analysis September 17, 2008
McCain, Palin, Obama, Dole (R-NC), Fimian (R-VA)


The Air War: "Coleman's shot at Franken's 'juicy porn' not quite a bull's-eye"
Barack Obama, John McCain, Ronnie Musgrove, Norm Coleman, Al Franken


The Hill: Air War: MoveOns Not Alex ad scores big with independents
MoveOn.org, Obama, McCain, Gordon Smith, Harri Anne Smith


Air Wars Analysis July 17, 2008
John McCain, Barrack Obama, Harri Anne Smith (R-AL), Gordon Smith (R-OR)


The Airwar: Warner keeps it going with first ad offering
Warner (D-VA), Dole (R-NC), Sununu (R-NH)


Air Wars Analysis, June 18, 2008
RNC, Sununu, NRSC, Warner, MoveOn.org


Air Wars Analysis, June 3, 2008
Barack Obama (D), John McCain (R), Bob Schaffer (R-CO), Mark Udall (D-CO), Jay Love (R-AL)


04-16-08 President
Barack Obama (D), John McCain (R)


11-18-07 President
Edwards(D), Clinton(D), Thompson(R), Paul(R)


03-18-08 ‘3 a.m.’ ad unconvincing
Clinton


10-23-07 President
Obama(D), Clinton (D), McCain (R), Richardson (D), Romney (R)


9-21-07 President
Thompson (R)


8-22-07 The Best
and Worst
Campaign Ads
of 2006
(Winning Campaigns)


8-15-07 President
Anti-Huckabee
LA Gov
Jindal (R), Boasso (D)
MS Gov
Eaves (D)


7-24-07 President
Obama (D), Edwards (D)
KS 02
Anti-Jenkins
DCCC Veterans Ad


6-28-07 President
Richardson (D), Kucinich (D), Dodd (D), Clinton (D)


5-30-07 President
Richardson (D), Anti-Bush (D), Dodd (D), Thompson (R)


5-17-07 President
Edwards (D), Richardson (D), Giuliani (R)


4-25-07 President
Anti-Clinton (D)


3-7-07 President
Romney (R), Hunter (R)


2-16-07 President
Obama (D), McCain (R)


11-16-06 110th Congress

11-7-06 MD Senate
Cardin (D), Steele (R)


10-25-06 NY CD 26
Davis (D), Reynolds (R)


10-12-06 TX CD 17
Edwards (D), Taylor (R)


10-5-06 NY CD 20
Gillibrand (D), Sweeney (R)


9-14-06 MO Senate
McCaskill (D), Talent (R)


7-27-06 CT Senate
Lamont (D), Lieberman (I)


6-29-06 IA Gubernatorial
Culver (D), Nussle (R)


6-15-06 AZ Senate
Pederson (D), Kyl (R)


5-18-06 CA CD 50
Busby (D), Bilbray (R)


5-4-06 PA Gubernatorial
Swann (R)


4-19-06 Abramoff

3-30-06 MI Gubernatorial
DeVos (R)



Wilson Research Strategies and The Hill Ad Review - Blog


 

Posts Tagged ‘Tyler Harber’

Explanation of Voter ID Shifts

Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

I again joined Chris Malagisi (the Chairman of the Young Conservatives Coalition) on the Winston Group’s webshow (the Right Idea) hosted by Kristen Soltis to discuss why there is a shift in the way voters identify themselves.

The Republican Youth Vote…is it just a myth?

Monday, September 28th, 2009

I was invited to talk about the Republican youth vote and coalition building with Chris Malagisi (the Chairman of the Young Conservatives Coalition) on the Winston Group’s webshow (the Right Idea) hosted by Kristen Soltis

Campaign Staffing Strategies

Friday, September 18th, 2009

Check out Tyler Harber (@tharber)’s new post about campaign staffing strategies on Politics Magazine’s Campaign Insider Blog.

Campaign Insider Tips

Friday, September 4th, 2009

Check out Tyler Harber’s newest post on Politics Magazines’ Campaign Insider Blog.

 

Roll Call: Consultants’ Hobbies

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

Check out this Roll Call article highlighting WRS VP Tyler Harber…

There’s Nothing Bush League About Consultants’ Hobbies

By Shira Toeplitz

If campaigns are a gamble, then Republican pollster Tyler Harber is a true professional. During odd-numbered years, Harber uses his free time away from politics to play in professional poker tournaments.

“It’s like table-top warfare,” Harber said. “For campaign professionals or hacks, we’re attracted to the warfare aspects of the campaign … anything that is highly competitive that pits you against someone else is highly attractive.”

The vice president at Wilson Research Strategies said that while his poker playing is not very profitable, he makes enough to pay for his trips. What’s more, Harber said he has even procured some business playing poker in the same way that some professionals ink deals on the golf course.

“I’ve definitely gotten work from the felt top, if you will, and probably just as much work as some people get on the green,” Harber said. “It’s just a different kind of green.”

Harber is not the only consultant who is enjoying the off year in the campaign cycle. While campaigns are in low gear, consultants will often take advantage of the down time to pursue nonpolitical activities or investments.

“Back among the first and second generation of political consultants, there was almost a tradition of doing interesting stuff, particularly in the odd-numbered year,” longtime Democratic media consultant Gary Nordlinger said.

Nordlinger puts in between 750 and 1,250 hours each year as a volunteer in the Coast Guard, depending on whether he is in cycle. Nordlinger was on one of the many crews that manned the Potomac River in hypothermal gear during this year’s inauguration.

Some of the most successful political consultants have picked choice investments, such as buying a stake in a minor league baseball team or funding a pet documentary film project. Democratic media consultant David Heller jointly owns the Quad Cities River Bandits minor league baseball team along the Illinois-Iowa border.

“I spent a lot more time on it in the early part of an off than in an even year,” Heller said.

Fortunately for Heller, his client Rep. Phil Hare (D-Ill.), represents the Quad Cities, and he recently landed Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson’s (D) bid for Illinois Senate this cycle.

“It was an attraction for Phil knowing that his media consultant is someone who reads the Rock Island Argus and the Quad City Times cover to cover,” Heller said. “It’s fair to say I know more about Phil’s district than any other media consultant ever would or ever could.”

Photo Courtesy Ken Aravelo

Democratic consultant David Heller jointly owns minor league baseball team the Quad City River Bandits, who play in this stadium in Davenport, Iowa.
Not surprisingly, Heller also produced award-winning advertisements for his team. And talk about a campaign gimmick: The franchise recently hosted a “mega candy drop” by releasing 100 pounds of candy from a helicopter over the baseball field for 1,000 children to collect and take home.

“In minor league baseball, you are selling a fan experience,” Heller said. “It is far less important about whether the team wins or loses than it is the experience the fan has at the game. In politics, you’re in part selling the idea that you’re going to make the experience better under one candidate than it is under another.”

What was supposed to be an off-year project for Duane Baughman has become a full-time obsession for the direct-mail firm president who is producing two controversial documentaries on events in Pakistan and Rwanda. Baughman started thinking about the film on his biannual post-election vacation in 2006, when he went “gorilla trekking in the highlands of Rwanda and Uganda.”

Baughman, who runs the San Francisco-based Democratic mail firm Baughman Co., has poured almost $2 million of his own funds into the two projects — an activity that he calls “film-an-thropy.”

“I work it in with my political business and because [the film projects are] international,” Baughman said. “When everybody is sleeping here, I’m working on their daytime schedule over there.”

Baughman could not talk about the specifics of his two films because, he said, negotiations with networks and distributors were still in the works. But he plans to have a theatrical release in order to be considered for the Academy Awards.

Other consultants have found a way to put their money where their mouth is. Brian Donahue and a couple of other consultants are partial investors in Hook, the high-end Georgetown seafood restaurant. Will Robinson, a veteran Democratic media consultant with the New Media Firm, has a stake in the wine bar Cork with a few other consultants.

Millions watched Philadelphia Democratic media consultant Neil Oxman caddy for professional golfer Tom Watson this year at the British Open. Oxman said he was not available to comment for this story, but the Philadelphia Inquirer reported that the two men have known each other since 1972, when Oxman was caddying to pay his way through law school.

For Martin Hamburger and Kelly Gibson of the Hamburger Co., the campaign off season is, luckily, peak season for their moonlighting gigs. The two Democratic media consultants teach weekly ski lessons at Liberty Mountain in Pennsylvania from the end of December to the beginning of March.

Hamburger jokingly confessed to looking for candidates running in states with great ski slopes, such as current client Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.).

“I definitely make an effort. I say we should really try to pitch the cold pointy states and stay away from the warm flat ones,” Hamburger said. “I pitched a client skiing in Washington state, and we got the race.”

That’s probably a good thing, because Hamburger and Gibson aren’t in it for the money — they make a paltry $7 per hour teaching lessons on the slops. But Hamburger said he has run into Paul Begala and Doug Sosnick on the slopes, the latter of whom, he said, did a double-take before he recognized him in his full ski instructor uniform.

It’s a situation that Hamburger knows well. One quiet evening at his Bethesda, Md., home a few years ago, Hamburger’s partner on Sen. Benjamin Cardin’s (D-Md.) 2006 campaign knocked on his door: Pollster Eily Hayes was on her own fundraising campaign.

Hayes, a vice president for Global Strategy Group, was raising money for the all-volunteer Bethesda-Chevy Chase Rescue Squad.

“I’d been working with Martin all year for Ben Cardin,” Hayes said. “And then I knocked on his door in full rescue squad uniform driving an ambulance.”

For the past five years, Hayes has responded to 911 medical emergencies such as car accidents on the Beltway, house fires and even driving an ambulance to the metro crash in June. But far from an off-year hobby, Hayes is required to work at least a dozen hours each week for the rescue crew.

In the off years, Bill Fletcher said he likes to do interesting side projects to “keep me fresh.” The CEO of the Democratic media firm Fletcher Rowley Riddle managed the Eric Hamilton Band for several years in the 1990s.

The band was signed to a record label and a talent agency, but the hallmark event for Fletcher was the campaign-style cross-country concert tour.

“The band played 50 states in 50 days, which was a logistical nightmare but earned us some pretty significant coverage in Billboard Magazine,” Fletcher said.

Nevertheless, Fletcher decided not to quit his day job.

“It cost me a lot of money and then the band didn’t make it, but I got a nice leather jacket out of it with the band’s logo on it,” he said.

Astroturfing is Campaigning

Friday, August 21st, 2009

Check out Tyler Harber’s latest post at Politics Magazine’s Campaign Insider Blog about how Astroturfing is actually just good campaign tactics.

Astroturfing has quickly become a four-letter word used synonymously with cheating by creating a false perception. Accusations of astroturfing find their way into the news (especially here in D.C.) on a regular basis. However, if you examine the strategy and effect of astroturfing, you’ll quickly realize that it is actually just good campaigning and has been used by candidates and organizations for decades to grow actual bases of support.

Astroturfing is generally defined as the use of various tactics to create the perception of a grassroots movement or opinion. Tactics include pre-written letters to the editor, distance-signed direct mail, insider-written blog posts, patched-through phone calls and staged events using campaign insiders or close associates. But, astroturfing isn’t just for lobbying campaigns trying to pressure Congress on an issue of a piece of legislation. Astroturfing is used by political campaigns, too. It’s just rarely termed that way.

Building a legitimate grassroots movement of support for first time or unknown candidates means first creating the perception that there are people out there that are already supporting them. This means finding creative ways to build that perception by using a number of techniques, including events filled with friends and family to show a crowd, letters to the editor written by campaign operatives and signed by supporters, and even blog posts written by a son or daughter of a close friend. These are a few tactics, commonly referred to as astroturfing, that work to create the perception that people are backing this unknown candidate.

As I’ve pointed out before, “Americans love winners.” More importantly, voters have a tendency to back candidates that appear to have momentum and are perceived to be in front. In the campaign world we don’t call it astroturfing, we call it base building. But no matter what you term it, using astroturfing tactics to start the ball rolling in building a base of support is a critical part of creating a winning campaign from scratch.

 

Waging War in Townhalls

Friday, August 7th, 2009

Check out Tyler Harber’s recent post on Politics Magazine’s Campaign Insider’s Blog:

Waging War in Townhalls

As Congress adjourns for a month long recess, the most important battles over healthcare reform will be played out in townhall meetings in congressional districts all across the country. Why is this important? Simple answer: It’s all about earned media. Townhall attendance isn’t enough to actually change national opinion regarding healthcare, but reports of protests and chaotic townhall sessions make headlines that can effect perception.

As General George S. Patton said, “America loves a winner.” That’s true of politicians and even positions on issues. The vast (and growing) population of independents has a tendency to back what they perceive to be the “winning” side. That’s why you hear consultants harp on “momentum” in the closing days of a campaign. Because late-breaking voters cast a ballot for whom they think is winning. The same principle applies to the battle over healthcare.

Over the past several weeks, reports have surfaced of a growing number of incidents at townhalls hosted by congressmen supporting the president’s healthcare plan. The townhalls in the spotlight have seen everything from yelling, asking the congressman loaded questions, and general disruption in opposition to the proposed legislation. Alone, these townhalls would normally have little impact—other than perhaps embarrassing the congressman in front of a few dozen people. But, traditional and non-traditional media has helped proliferate reports of protest.

Noting the success of the protests in the townhalls, Republicans are now encouraging more of those who are miffed about the healthcare reform to attend their Democratic congressman’s townhall and ask tough questions. Democrats are trying to gain control of the situation by attempting to paint townhall rioters as extremists who are obstructing constructive conversation about the future of our nation’s healthcare system. Unfortunately for the Democrats, local newspapers and television stations are more likely to cover a townhall that has the potential to be explosive than not. The reason is because it makes for good entertainment. So, until the “new” wears off on intra-townhall riots, the Democrats will have to brace for the worst.

But, watch for Democrats to change from in-person townhalls to telephone townhalls, where they can control the questions much like a call-in radio show. They still get to send out a press release saying they hosted a townhall where they heard from constituents regarding healthcare.

Soc-Nets and Web Strategies Cannot Replace Door-to-Door

Friday, July 17th, 2009

Tyler Harber’s latest post on Politics Magazine’s Campaign Insiders’ Blog:

Every election cycle some new strategy or technique becomes all the rage. Several cycles ago it was “microtargeting,” now its “social networking.” Smart consultants have learned to introduce the new techniques into their strategic advice but work hard to maintain the balance and discipline it takes to win. The goal is to still get your candidate elected. Having 4,000 Facebook friends, half of who aren’t even in your district, does little to help you on Election Day if you fail to build your brand, communicate your message (in-person), and get out the vote.

Two recently released surveys on how Americans perceive brands and make decisions gives us geeky political junkies an idea of how different campaign tactics work to win votes. The first survey, released by Harris Interactive last week, indicates that while adults “use a mixture of traditional media and new media, including those that would constitute ‘push’ (advertising and websites) and ‘pull’ (information from neutral, informal communication),” Americans are persuaded (and informed) most by face-to-face communication.

This means that the time, the resources and the importance the campaign places on attracting Facebook friends, posting video-blog clips and tweeting every move the candidate makes still cannot move voters the way volunteers knocking on doors can. A closer look at the survey data shows that younger voters—those you would expect to be most swayed by the widget, blog and tweet strategy—are even more moved by face-to-face communication than their older counter-parts despite being heavier users of Facebook, LinkedIn, MySpace and Twitter. This is a strong reason to keep door-to-door at the top of your campaign’s priority list!

The second survey that caught my eye last week, released by WorkPlace Media, reveals that Americans’ perception of a brand remains largely unchanged by social network presence. This reinforces the necessity of traditional media (TV, radio and direct mail) and face-to-face communications (events and door-to-door) as the primary method to build your candidate’s brand. Your campaign’s social network and web presence will only reinforce the candidate’s brand perception and does little to actually frame it.

Don’t get me wrong here. Your campaign should employ a strong social network and web strategy. That’s how you raise money on-line and motivate volunteers and supporters. However, don’t let your soc-net strategy distract you from tried and true campaign tactics like door-to-door that continue to be the most effective at winning hearts, minds and—most importantly—votes.

Other recent posts by Harber for Politics Magazine:

Fundraising Totals: To release or not to release

Parade Strategy

Polling Budget Dilemma: Robo vs Live

The Strategic Values of Financial Filings

The First-Time Blind

The Rise of the Free-Market Candidate

 

Financial Totals: To Release or Not to Release

Friday, July 10th, 2009

Check out Tyler Harber’s latest post on Politics Magazine’s Campaign Insider’s Blog covering the strategy of releasing financial totals early and how to get traction even if your campaign’s haul is topped by the opponent.

Other recent posts by Harber for Politics Magazine:

Parade Strategy

Polling Budget Dilemma: Robo vs Live

The Strategic Values of Financial Filings

The First-Time Blind

The Rise of the Free-Market Candidate

Polling Budget Dilemma: Robo vs. Live

Friday, June 26th, 2009

Check out Tyler Harber’s latest blog post on Politics Magazine’s Campaign Insider Blog about Robo versus Live-interview polling, and the kind of data each produces.

Other recent posts by Harber:

The Strategic Values of Financial Filings

The First-Time Blind

The Rise of the Free-Market Candidate