We are happy to serve as the pollster to Congressman Mike Sodrel who is seeking to retake his seat from Baron Hill.  The 9th district of Indiana has proven itself to be a (if not THE) bellweather district.  Republicans have won this seat in years that the GOP performed well nationally, and have lost it in years the DEMs experienced pick-ups.

This year is ripe for a GOP takeover, especially since Hill voted YES for Cap & Trade, Stimulus, Health Care, and a number of other bills that aren’t so popular in this Republican-leaning district that went for McCain 50% - 48%.

Hill-Sodrel rematch a virtual tie in GOP poll
By Aaron Blake - 03/24/10 02:29 PM ET

Former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-Ind.) trails Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.) by just one point, 43-42, according to a poll conducted for Sodrel’s campaign.

The Wilson Research Strategies poll also shows Sodrel in solid position in his May 4 primary with attorney Todd Young and activist Travis Hankins. Sodrel’s name recognition from four previous campaigns in the district has spurred him to a 46-19 lead over Hankins. Young, who is a member of the NRCC’s Young Guns program, is in third, at 13 percent.

In the general election, only 22 percent of voters say they will definitely vote to reelect Hill. That number was 28 percent in a Wilson poll in 2008, before Hill beat Sodrel 58-38 for a third victory in four matchups.

The more recent poll was conducted between Feb. 28 and March 3, before the healthcare vote and immediately after Hill declared that he wouldn’t run for the state’s open Senate seat.

The poll actually finds Sodrel a little worse-off than a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the liberal website Firedoglake.com in January. That poll had Sodrel leading 49-41.

Republican strategist Tyler Harber said the GOP has yet to rebuild its image, and it’s getting a taste of the side effects.

“The base has fragmented as Republicans still face significant morale issues,� said Harber, who is working for special election candidate David Harmer (R) in California. Harmer’s race is the same day — Nov. 3 — as the New York race, but hasn’t lured much national involvement.

Full article here

We are proud to be serving as Pollster for David Harmer

 By Aaron Blake (The Hill) - 10/08/09 10:01 AM ET

A new survey suggests Republicans could have a shot in the special election for former Rep. Ellen Tauscher’s (D-Calif.) seat.

Republican David Harmer’s campaign sponsored a poll in late September that showed Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D) with a seven-point lead on Harmer, 41-34.

The Wilson Research Strategies poll notes that its numbers assume Republicans will turn out at about 29 percent – their share of the registration. But if the numbers are weighted according to primary turnout, when Republicans represented 35 percent of voters, Garamendi’s lead is down to 39-37.

The poll also says Garamendi’s favorable number dropped by 3 percent between early August and late September (he finished first in an open primary Sept. 1), while his unfavorable number rose 6 percent. The generic ballot, over that span, changed from a 55-29 Democratic advantage to a 44-40 Democratic edge.

Harmer has money and has been added to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s (NRCC) Young Guns program, but the race is not yet a top target. In 2008, the district went 65 percent for President Obama, and it has a D+11 Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI).

Tauscher took a position as an undersecretary in the State Department.