As I mentioned last week, Democrats have the edge in voter identification.  In fact, when we include leaners (those who say they are Independent, but lean more toward Democrats than Republicans) a majority of Americans say they are Democratic (52%), while only 40% say they are Republican (source).

A new survey released by Gallup indicates that the nation that twice elected George W Bush as President has become decidedly blue.

How can this happen?

As we’ve discussed before, The Republican party’s brand is badly damaged.  It has less to do with President Bush and more to do with the fact that we have alienated voters by focusing more on our socially conservative issues rather than issues and messages that attract voters to the party of Lincoln.  This does NOT mean that the Republican party has to moderate its stance on abortion, guns, and gay marriage; however, it does mean that we have to do a better job at targeting voters with our messages. 

It’s no big surprise that voters have different interests, but Republicans have insisted on running messages that draw in only the hard-core conservatives, driving our center-right supporters away from us.  For the GOP to ever be competitive again, we have to embrace a full spectrum of issues.  This does NOT mean we have to become any less conservative.  But, it does mean that we have to conduct more research and adapt our campaigns to an electorate that is not single minded.  Reagan put it best when he said, “my eighty percent friend is NOT my 20 percent enemy.”  We have to attract those who love our conservative stance on some issues, but may disagree with us on other messages.  They, too, can be Republican.

For those Republicans who believe that all will be better now that Bush is out of the White House, I can safely say that you are WRONG.  Bush is gone, but the fact that the majority of Americans view Republicans as being extremists had little to do with him.  We have to change our message and our approach or we will go the way of the Whig party.  In fact, the very way we wage campaigns and recruit candidates has to be overhauled.  We need to assemble the great strategic minds of the party and bring in a new generation of ideologists and campaign operatives to start the discussion of how we rebuild.  We have to have new ideas.

On Friday, a new RNC chairman will be elected.  The absolutely best thing the man can do is to wipe clean the current structure of the RNC, and start over (don’t read this wrong - I advocate a new structure, not necessarily new employees.  There are a lot of talented people at the RNC).  Whatever we’re doing is clearly not working, but we’ll never achieve solvency if we don’t listen to new ideas and embrace new techniques.

Losing the White House and the ousting of President George W. Bush is not enough to bring voters back to the Republican party.  It may be too early to tell whether the GOP naturally recovers, but a recent poll indicates that 36% of Americans identify themselves as Democrats while only 28% say they are Republican.

The Democrats’ eight-point party identification advantage could spell huge trouble for Republicans in 2010 and beyond, meaning that the GOP has to carry the majority of its base vote in addition to significant numbers of Independents to win races. 

This makes reaching out to moderates and Independents key to victory.  This does NOT mean that the Republican party has to become moderate, but it must focus on more main-stream issues like economy, conservation, and the environment and leave talk about abortion and guns to targeted mail pieces of those voters who care about those issues.  The fact is that many Americans currently view the Republican party as a group of extremists because we have used the anti-abortion and pro-gun messages as our lead approach.  This turned away droves of voters who now say they are Independent or even Democratic.  What’s worse is that these voters will be hard to bring back to the party.

Next week, Republicans gather in Washington, D.C. to choose a new Chairman of the RNC.  Here’s hoping that all those vying for the position realize that we can still be the conservative party, remaining unmoved on our current issues, without turning people away by pushing messages and issues that are meant for smaller sub-groups. 

Check out the FlashReport blog for an overview of a presentation by Chris Wilson regarding the election and recommendations of where the Republican Party goes from here.