Can a leaderless army win?  Sun Tzu and a number of other legendary military strategist would say no.

The problem is that despite a transforming political environment that could allow the GOP to pick up dozens of seats, the party has no real leader according to a new Washington Post survey of Republican voters:

Nearly three in 10 of those surveyed expressed no opinion about who in the GOP best reflects the party’s principles or volunteered that no one does.

At the recent Republican Governors Association meetings in Austin, party officials discounted the absence of a single clear leader, arguing that what is most important is for Republicans to resist Obama’s domestic agenda, reaffirm conservative principles and begin to articulate an alternative set of ideas. These officials expect to pick up seats in Congress and win more governorships in next year’s elections, and think new, formidable leaders will emerge from those victories.

The leaderless army of Republicans begin to soul search in a manner that is devisive:

Republicans are now debating whether and how much candidates should be allowed to stray from party doctrine. That issue caused a split in the special election in New York’s 23rd Congressional District. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich and others backed the Republican candidate and other leaders, including Palin, endorsed the Conservative Party candidate.

We have departed, as a Party, from the teachings of Reagan who reminded us that our 80% friend (someone who we agree on 80% of the issues) is NOT our 20% enemy.  To survive, we have to allow moderate positions on a few things.  The fact is that touting social issues will help us lose more races than we will ever win.

The bottom-line here is that a split base will deal Republican candidates (and even Conservative candidates) a loss everytime.  Independent voters may now be with us, but until we put our house in order we are destined to lose a number of races we should most certainly win.

I wrote earlier this week that the power of the Tea Party would be displayed if they were able to split the vote, but I think that we can safely say that the conservatives can claim a win by pushing out Dede Scozzafava regardless of Tuesday’s results.

But, I still wonder if there is enough time for Hoffman to recoalesce the base to win on Tuesday.  Even if Scozzafava was pulling between 12-13%, a majority of those voters will have to vote for Hoffman to give him the win.  If they don’t turnout, we may be in trouble.

Here’s hoping that the Scozzafava gets on-board quickly so we can begin to attract her most ardent supporters.  That’s really the only way we can win.

Alex Isenstadt at the Politico wrote an interesting piece about the New York 23 special election being the first test of the Tea Party’s power.  I couldn’t agree more, but I’m not sure how positive the effect may be.

Tea party activists from across the nation are rallying around the House special election in upstate New York, viewing it as the first electoral test of the nascent conservative movement’s political muscle.

Organizers up and down the East Coast report that activists are making their way into the campaign offices of Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, with the volunteers focusing their efforts in Oswego, Madison and Jefferson counties. While tea party organizers say the election is a unique opportunity to hold the Democratic and Republican parties to account, much of their energy is being directed against Dede Scozzafava, the GOP establishment-backed nominee whom they view as a squishy moderate who represents all that is wrong with the Republican Party.

I don’t necessarily disagree with how the Tea Party members are expressing their anger and backing a candidate they believe in; however, their work will split the Republican vote and give NY CD23 to the Democrats.

The reason I believe the Republican and Conservative party candidates will fail is because they draw support from the same vote base.  If you split the conservative and moderate Republicans in just about any race in the nation, the base erodes and the candidate will lose.  This is not unique to Republicans.  Democrats will lose in many cases if you split the moderate and liberal Democratic base vote.  That’s why Green party candidates are often seen as spoilers in races where the Democrat must earn a solid base vote to win.

The fact is that a major party candidate cannot win with a wounded or split base.  This may be the goal of many of the volunteers in New York currently; however, I bet that most don’t understand that they are working AGAINST Scozzafava, not FOR Hoffman.

The Tea Party activists are, without a doubt, a powerful volunteer force.  Republican candidates should reach out to these activists and bring them into the fold.  Otherwise, this population will siphon votes off many races Republicans can win in 2010.  The same can be said of the libertairans that still have more in common with the Republican party candidates than Democrats.

A newly released survey indicates that while many Americans believe that the views of the Democratic Party are “too liberal,” the Democrats are still perceived as being more “just about right” than Republicans.  This is yet another indication that the Republican brand continues to viewed as being extreme and possibly elitist.

Don’t lose me here.  The news isn’t the number of people who say that Democrats are “too liberal” or the number who say that Republicans are “too conservative.”  Those people aren’t going to vote for those parties anyway.  It’s those in the middle that we should be concerned about.  Those are the swing voters - the people who decide elections.  Now, thinking in those terms you will note that what’s more troubling for Republicans is the fact that the number who say that the views of the Republican party are “about right” has declined since the election.  This is problematic for a party that is struggling to rebrand itself by searching desperately for a leader, a purpose, and a new way to connect with voters.

A quick look at the critically important bloc of Independent voters reveals a 13-point gap between the number who view the Democratic party views as “about right” and those who view the Republican party views the same way.  This is another warning sign that those voters who dealt the GOP loses in 2006 and 2008 still have problems connecting ideologically with the party and its candidates.

Clearly, whatever we have been doing (or not doing) as a party is not working.  Voters are still moving away from us, and time is running out.  There is no doubt that the recent Ensign, Sanford and even the bizarre move by Palin over the weekend has hurt the way some voters view the Republican party.  We are desperately in need of a new direction, a new strategy, and a leader that we can get behind that isn’t reactive, emotional, extreme or divisive.

Two newly released national surveys give Republicans mixed news.

First, the good news…

Obama’s image and job approval are beginning to slip as voters exhibit growing concerns about his policies, specifically the growing national debt:

Obama Job Approval
6/09:  56 approve / 34 disapprove
4/09:  61 approve / 30 disapprove
2/09:  60 approve / 26 disapprove

Obama Image
6/09:  60 favorable / 29 unfavorable
4/09:  64 favorable / 23 unfavorable
2/09:  68 favorable / 19 unfavorable

Voters are less inclined to believe that Obama inherited all the problems, and are less excited about the stimulus:

President/Congress should worry more about boosting the economy  35%
President/Congress should worry more about keeping budget down   58%

Obama Inherited economic situation
6/09:  72%
2/09:  84%

Stimulus
6/09:  37 Good Idea / 39 Bad Idea
4/09:  38 Good Idea / 39 Bad Idea
2/09:  44 Good Idea / 36 Bad Idea
1/09:  43 Good Idea / 27 Bad Idea

Now, the bad news for Republicans…

Despite the fact that the stars are beginning to align for anti-Obama and anti-Democratic talking points, the image of Republicans is still falling.  Voters may agree with Republicans that Obama and Democrats are spending too much; however, if we can’t convince voters to like the GOP, it’s a waste of breath and time becauase voters still make decisions based on who they like better.

This chart clearly demonstrates the necessity to adopt a whole new strategy.  Having the right talking points won’t win it alone.

Pew releases a new assessment of party identification, pointing out that the spike in the number of voters saying they are “Independent” doesn’t necessarily mean that they will be voting any differently than before:

The proportion of independents now equals its highest level in 70 years. Owing to defections from the Republican Party, independents are more conservative on several key issues than in the past. While they like and approve of Barack Obama, as a group independents are more skittish than they were two years ago about expanding the social safety net and are reluctant backers of greater government involvement in the private sector. Yet at the same time, they continue to more closely parallel the views of Democrats rather than Republicans on the most divisive core beliefs on social values, religion and national security.

These voters are the legions of “soft” Republicans who are more concerned with fiscal issues and could care less about abortion, guns, and gay marriage.  As I’ve written about before, these voters know that Republicans are the pro-life, pro-gun, pro-traditional marriage party, but want to know what else we can provide.  This doesn’t mean that we have to moderate our views.  It simply means that Republicans have to start connecting with these voters about economic and kitchen table issues they care about.

Related posts:

Can Republicans Win by Moderating?

2010 Looking Better for Republicans as Independents Lean Right

A newly released survey indicates that Republican Congressional Leadership may not be the best positioned to lead the party back to power.  When asked if the “policies being proposed by” Democratic or Republican leadership in the US House and Senate would move the country in the right direction or wrong direction, Americans came down hard on the GOP:

Democrats:  57% Right Direction/40% Wrong Direction
Republicans:  39% Right Direction/53% Wrong Direction

Another survey I analyzed a few weeks ago points out that Congressional Republicans even face higher unfavorability among their own party than Democrats do among their party faithful.  This new data is another indication that leading the party out of the wilderness may have to come from leaders outside of our current Congressional leadership.  It’s not that these men and women are unable to provide meaningful guidance and solutions, but rather that the public (most noteably the critically important Independents) have little faith in this group.

A recent survey indicates that Republicans are less enthusiastic about their representation in Congress (read: Republicans in Congress) than Democrats are about Democratic members.

Republicans in Congress
Very Fav among Republicans: 26%
Smwt Fav among Republican: 36%

Democrats in Congress
Very Fav among Democrats: 41%
Smwt Fav among Democrats: 40%

This shows that the base is likely still struggling with how our leadership is dealing with Obama and minority status.  Another survey gives us a sense of which Congressional Republicans’ responses are resonating and which are hurting the party image:

Now, I’d like to read you a list of things people say are encouraging about how the Republican Party has acted during President Obama’s first 100 days in office.  After I read this list I’d like you to tell me, in your opinion, which two are the MOST ENCOURAGING ABOUT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY:

21%  Opposed Obama’s budget and offered an alternative with less government spending
20%  Working to keep taxes low
19%  Protecting defense spending and weapons systems that Obama and Democrats are trying to cut
18%  Providing checks and balances to a Democratic president and Congress
13%  Opposing Democratic efforts to increase the size of government

Now, I’d like to read you a list of things people say are encouraging about how the Republican Party has acted during President Obama’s first 100 days in office.  After I read this list I’d like you to tell me, in your opinion, which two  WORRY YOU THE MOST ABOUT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY:

22%  Instead of working with Obama, obstructing his agenda
22%  Lack of leadership and direction
19%  After promising bi-partisanship, voted unanimously against Obama’s economic recovery plan and budget
19%  Not offering alternative ideas and solutions
19%  Already gearing up to defeat Obama’s health care and energy reform plans
13%  Leadership follows the most conservative voices in their party

There is a clear message here.  Voters are attracted to Republicans when they offer alternatives that seek to keep spending down, taxes low, and government in check.  Voters are upset that there seems to be no clear party leadership and direction perpetuating the “party of no” theme by not offering an alternative to Democratic proposals.

Americans like a two party system, believing that it strikes a balance, but they have a hard time with Republicans when no alternatives are produced.  This data proves, again, that we cannot survive by just being loyal opposition.  We have to offer smart, new ideas on how to address the issues facing the country.  This will help us with the image among our own base, as well as the voter population at-large.

While a handful of high profile Republicans have earned headlines recently with talk of moderation and embracing gay marriage, party strategists know that future success lies more with targeted advertising than hedging on key issues important to the traditional Republican voter.

The base still responds best to social conservative issues; however, those same issues push Independents and softer Republicans away from GOP candidates. Therefore, a targeted message execution can deliver the right messages to the right populations.

Some of our losses in the past four years can be attributed to poor communication plans that relied heavily on mass marketing a few message points that drove away votes critical to victory (aka - Independents). The key is that you have to engage voters with issues they care about. This is not moderation, this is campaign strategy.

An article on Politico.com this weekend suggests that a “rebellion is brewing” in the Republican party between traditionalist that refuse to hedge on social issues and their moderate counterparts that don’t see eye-to-eye regarding abortion, gay marriage, and even gun rights.  I couldn’t disagree more.  No one in the party structure (RNC) is pushing for us to abandon our social conservative roots.  The media has been distracted by a few news-makers.

The bottom-line is that not everyone in the Republican party is motivated by abortion and gay marriage.  But, there are likely some issues that the majority can agree on (economy comes to mind!).  The key in each campaign is to develop messages that effectively engage sub-segments of the electorate necessary to win.  Rarely will one message bridge all groups necessary to get 50% + 1.  So, the idea that the only way Republicans can win is to embrace gay marriage and abortion is silly.

I wrote about this exact same thing before the RNC Winter meeting in January (see here).  The problem we are facing as a party is that moderates and Independents haven’t been engaged effectively.  Generally speaking, they are attracted to our messages about fiscal conservatism, but we haven’t done a great job of demonstrating that they are more like us (Republicans) than Democrats.  Again, all this means is that we should target economic messages to these groups instead of clumping them in with the social conservative messages we use to motivate our base.  They know we are the pro-life/pro-traditional marriage party.  They just need to know what else we stand for before making a decision.

As I mentioned last week, Democrats have the edge in voter identification.  In fact, when we include leaners (those who say they are Independent, but lean more toward Democrats than Republicans) a majority of Americans say they are Democratic (52%), while only 40% say they are Republican (source).

A new survey released by Gallup indicates that the nation that twice elected George W Bush as President has become decidedly blue.

How can this happen?

As we’ve discussed before, The Republican party’s brand is badly damaged.  It has less to do with President Bush and more to do with the fact that we have alienated voters by focusing more on our socially conservative issues rather than issues and messages that attract voters to the party of Lincoln.  This does NOT mean that the Republican party has to moderate its stance on abortion, guns, and gay marriage; however, it does mean that we have to do a better job at targeting voters with our messages. 

It’s no big surprise that voters have different interests, but Republicans have insisted on running messages that draw in only the hard-core conservatives, driving our center-right supporters away from us.  For the GOP to ever be competitive again, we have to embrace a full spectrum of issues.  This does NOT mean we have to become any less conservative.  But, it does mean that we have to conduct more research and adapt our campaigns to an electorate that is not single minded.  Reagan put it best when he said, “my eighty percent friend is NOT my 20 percent enemy.”  We have to attract those who love our conservative stance on some issues, but may disagree with us on other messages.  They, too, can be Republican.

For those Republicans who believe that all will be better now that Bush is out of the White House, I can safely say that you are WRONG.  Bush is gone, but the fact that the majority of Americans view Republicans as being extremists had little to do with him.  We have to change our message and our approach or we will go the way of the Whig party.  In fact, the very way we wage campaigns and recruit candidates has to be overhauled.  We need to assemble the great strategic minds of the party and bring in a new generation of ideologists and campaign operatives to start the discussion of how we rebuild.  We have to have new ideas.

On Friday, a new RNC chairman will be elected.  The absolutely best thing the man can do is to wipe clean the current structure of the RNC, and start over (don’t read this wrong - I advocate a new structure, not necessarily new employees.  There are a lot of talented people at the RNC).  Whatever we’re doing is clearly not working, but we’ll never achieve solvency if we don’t listen to new ideas and embrace new techniques.