The 2008 Presidential Election saw an influx in the number of Millennial voters (voters born after 1982) getting involved in politics and voting at the polls. But how much of this will transfer into this year’s Midterm Elections, and how exactly will these voters decide which candidates and issues they want to support on the ballot. Analyzing the voting patterns of millennial voters has always been a specialty of mine—I conducted several papers and theses on the topic while in college. But further research demonstrates that these voters are constantly evolving, and it is important for campaigns to know how these voters think politically to win over their support now and in the future.

Internet killed the video star

Robert Putnam wrote in his book Bowling Alonethat Americans were living in a “weak ties� nation, where they were becoming isolated from their communities and apathetic towards politics. The last few years has brought a resurgence of a “strong ties� nation among millennial voters, however, largely as a result of the growth of the Internet and social networking. Facebook, MySpace and other similar websites have connected people, especially the younger generations, in an unprecedented fashion that IMs, telephones and emails could never achieve. Most campaigns have picked up on this, and have created Facebook profiles for them to disseminate information to the voters and create a community of volunteers to rely upon for grassroots efforts. The Pew Research Center reported in its February 2010 study on millennials that one in three (32%) have posted a message of some type on a social network in the past 24 hours and more than half (56%) have sent an email during that same timeframe. These numbers only further the case that the Internet is the best tool for reaching out to Millennial voters and will continue to be so as time passes, as the study found that the older voters got, the less likely they were to use the Internet and social networking sites.

Liberty, Equality, Fraternity

Millennial voters tend to be much more socially liberal than older voters. Just over half (52%) of them are pro-choice and 50% support gay marriage according to the same Pew study. The number of millennials who are pro-choice, however, is only slightly higher than that of older adults, as 48% of people between the ages of 30 and 64 are pro-choice. MIllennials are more liberal with respect to their support for gay marriage, as only 43% of Generation X-ers (ages 30-49) and 32% of Baby Boomers (ages 50-64) support gay marriage. A possible explanation for the fact that millennials are more open to gay marriage is that two-thirds (65%)of them say they have at least one friend or family member who is gay. Millennials are also much less religious overall, as only 37% of them actively participate in religious activities (including daily prayer) and one in three (31%) consider themselves to be unaffiliated with any religion.

It’s the economy, stupid

Overall, millennial voters tend to vote Democratic in general elections. The Pew study found that 51% plan to vote for the Democratic Congressional candidate in their district in November while only 37% plan to vote Republican. The number of who identify themselves as Republican/Lean Republican has also risen since 2007 from 30% to 35%, while the number of who identify themselves as Democrats/Lean Democrat has dropped by the same amount. Yet these voters are trending Republican, as only one in three (33%) planned to vote Republican in 2006.

A large part of this can be attributed to their preference for fiscal conservatism and the current state of the economy. In a study conducted by USA Todayin October of 2008, 50% of all Millennial voters said that the most important issue in deciding who to vote for that November was the economic crisis, and four in ten (39%) were most worried about the rise in unemployment. WRS polling over the past year has found that this is still true, as nearly all of our federal and statewide polls have demonstrated that this is the most important issue to them as well. This also explains to some degree why made up the largest chuck of “Paulites�—supporters of Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul in 2008 and potentially in 2012. Paul, and subsequently his son Rand—who is the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Kentucky this year—made a name for himself as being a libertarian Republican who advocates for a smaller government and less government regulation of the financial markets. They are also the most likely (44%) out of all generations to believe that the private businesses make a fair amount of profits and are not too powerful, further proving their capitalistic nature.

So what really matters to millennial voters?

Here at WRS we use a proprietary tool called the “Values Centered Issue Analysis� (or VCIA for short) that helps us have a better idea of the motivations and thought process of voters as they consider the most important issues to them in the upcoming elections. Looking specifically at the responses of voters 18-34 from studies conducted in a variety of Congressional Districts throughout the United States, we discovered that the economy and unemployment is still the largest concern to them and what they would like to see fixed first. Millennial voters want to see the economy improve because they are worried about their friends (and in some cases, themselves) who are unemployed and struggling to make ends meet, and how this is having a negative impact on their communities. They would like to see the economy improve so that they can have better financial futures as they start their families and enter middle-age. Millennial voters are also very concerned with the fact that they believe the Federal Government has failed them in recent years, and helped contribute to the current economic situation. Again this impacts their communities and thus, in their minds, having a government that works for them will not only improve the economy but restore prosperity to the country both in their minds and in the minds of the rest of the world.

What to say to Millennial Voters this Fall

Winning over Millennial voters in the polls is possible if campaigns focus on a few different things. First, the more a campaign connects with millennial voters through the Internet, the more likely they are to turn these voters into both supporters and volunteers. One note of caution is that they should not push a large focus on fundraising with these voters—considering the economic state of the country and the high numbers of unemployment among, the last thing a Millennial voter wants to hear from a candidate is “Would you be willing to donate to my campaign?� Republican candidates should also target the younger voter with a message about improving the economy and working to decrease the unemployment rate nationwide, as that is by far their biggest concern and the issue that will likely make or break their support for you in November. Reminding these voters that you would like to see the economy improve will also help them become more optimistic about their own individual lives and the lives of their families, friends and communities. And if all these steps are followed, the millennial vote should be winnable by the GOP in November.

Earlier this week, MSNBC published an article about political traits that divide Americans politically. The article discusses how liberals and conservatives were bound to disagree on polarizing issues such as health care from the get-go based on their “deep-seated personality differences contrasting moral views, polarized political parties and today’s 24/7, tell-it-all-in-great-detail media.�

At Wilson Research Strategies we pride ourselves on the fact that we stay ahead of the behavioral research curve. WRS uses its own proprietary psychographic inventory to help campaigns understand and influence voter behavior. Past campaign history has shown us that voters respond best to advertising appeals that are based on emotions or that “best represent their values.� By using our proprietary psychographic battery we can tell our campaigns how to frame their messaging and advertisements to best appeal to the values and emotions of voters which will help them to win more races.

Our psychographic battery is based on a series of questions derived from the Portrait Values Scale, a validated and widely used psychological inventory used in studying cultures and groups worldwide. These questions then provide us with the ten different values that are crucial in determining how to communicate with the voters.

The Others-Centered Values:

• Universalism
• Benevolence
• Conformity
• Tradition
• Security

The Self-Centered Values:

• Power
• Achievement
• Hedonism
• Stimulation
• Self-Direction

Using the above values, we can help media consultants and campaigns alike determine how best to advertise their campaign—from the language in direct mail ads to images that will appeal to the voters’ deepest seated emotional needs. We can also compare the psychographic values of different subgroups, such as younger men or social conservatives, with the overall population of the electorate to learn what messages and themes should be used to target these key subgroups.

So how does this all relate to polling? We have found that Republicans tend to have higher values on the “others� scale—meaning that they are more concerned with tradition, security, conformity and benevolence in their lives. Using an ad that reminds voters of the good ole days tends to be effective among most Republican subgroups nationwide. Conversely, Democrats tend to have higher scores with the “self� values—stimulation, hedonism, self-direction, achievement. These voters tend to be more concerned with fulfilling their personal needs. Showing an ad that depicts what an elected official has done or will do for them is likely to be more effective with Democrats than Republicans. WRS uses this Psychographic data, additional data we collect about the electorate, as well as the data we gather of other similar subgroups in races across the country to help our clients frame their messaging in a way that most effectively moves the vote.

(With help from William Burr and Daniel Narvaiz).

WRS is proud to be the pollster for the Southern Republican Leadership Conference.

You will be able to access the data we release right here on our blog:

• Friday at 5p EDT - Release of National Polling Data

• Saturday at 8p EDT - Release of Presidential Straw Poll Results

We will also be Tweeting the results live here: @WRSpolling

The healthcare debate may be over for now, but there is still something to be said for how it all unfolded. While Republicans are hoping that the vote will bring them victory in November and Democrats in swing seats are working on saving face, the American people appear to be squarely against it. Almost all polls taken over the past six months have a majority of Americans opposing the reforms just passed by Congress last month, and a Quinnipiac poll taken just after the bill passed has 49% of registered voters disapproving of the changes.

The American voters generally agree on the need for healthcare reform. This has never been the issue at stake. Where the debate comes in is over the implementation of the reform. And that is where spin doctoring comes in…

Republican pollster Frank Luntz once said that “It’s not what you say, it’s what people hear.� There are few times that this is truer than now. If we wrote a survey that asked the question “Do you agree or disagree that health care reform is needed?� a majority of voters would likely agree. Voters would also be likely to agree if the question read “Do you agree or disagree that healthcare reform is needed to make the process less bureaucratic?� or “Do you agree or disagree that health care reform is needed so everyone has the opportunity to have healthcare insurance?�

Yet, looking at the polls conducted over the past year on healthcare, this is not the case. Let us look at one recent poll in particular:

Q. As you may know, the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate are trying to pass final legislation that would make major changes in the country’s health care system. Based on what you have read or heard about that legislation, do you generally favor or generally oppose it? (CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, 19-21 March 2010, n=1053 adults, MoE=+3.0%)

39% Favor
59% Oppose
2% No Opinion

A follow-up question was then asked to those voters who opposed the reform:

Q. (IF OPPOSE) Do you oppose that legislation because you think its approach towards healthcare is too liberal, or because you think it is not liberal enough?

39% Favor (from previous question)
43% Oppose, too Liberal
13% Oppose, not Liberal enough
5% No Opinion

As you can tell, there is bias to these questions—albeit not a political one. In the follow-up question, the pollster is trying to elicit a specific response from the voters about the political situation in Washington, D.C.—they want to know whether they think the Democrats in Washington have overstepped their bounds while writing the legislation. The same follow-up question could also be used to elicit responses on environmental policy, or gun control, or educational reforms, further spinning the debate away from the crux of the debate.

And this is how all of the questions used by pollsters nationwide are being worded—less about the legislation and more about the reaction. And that my friends, is spin. Rather than looking at whether the American people want healthcare reform, we are asking about healthcare reform to spin the debate away from the general desire for reform to the public option, or whether the legislation has become political, or even if the Federal Government should be involved in the process of healthcare reform at all?

Spin is omnipresent and fits in well in the political world. To me, there is no politics without spin. And to some extent, there is no spin without politics.

A new Pew Research Center study provides evidence that Republican voters are smarter about current affairs, issues and news:

Republicans, on average, answered one more question correctly than Democrats (5.9 vs. 4.9 correct). These differences are partly a reflection of the demographics of the two groups; Republicans tend to be older, well educated and male, which are characteristics associated with political and economic knowledge. Still, even when these factors are held constant, Republicans do somewhat better than Democrats on the knowledge quiz.

Among the largest gaps comes over knowledge of who leads the U.S. Senate. About half (48%) of Republicans are able to identify Reid as the current majority leader, while only a third of Democrats can name their own party’s Senate leader. More Republicans can name Reid (48%) than Steele (37%), the RNC chairman.

The one question in the survey in which Democrats slightly outperform Republicans is about the number of women now serving on the U.S. Supreme Court. Close to six-in-ten Democrats (58%) know that more than one woman serves on the high court, compared with 50% of Republicans. Though the Democratic Party is made up of more women than men, this finding does not appear driven mostly by gender. Republican men and women are about equally likely to answer this question correctly (about half each), while solid majorities of both Democratic men (60%) and women (57%) get this question right.

Politico has rolled-out an aggregator site that keeps track of the lastest public polls.  I find this to be another great tool, and recommend bookmarking it.

 

A new study out shows that a solid majority (77%) of seniors (65+) online say they shop, read news, manage their finances, and even play free games on the internet.  This is the highest percentage among any age group!

The reserach found that older Americans - including both Seniors (also referred to as “Matures�) and the younger Baby Boomer cohort - have overwhelmingly made the internet an integral part of their everyday lives and often rival younger generations in online activities.

The study finds that seniors may lag behind younger generations in adapting to new technology (texting, social networking, etc), but this mature population is becoming more dependent upon the web for information.  Seniors also happen to be the largest voting bloc in most key Congressional districts across the country.

This highlights the importance of a strong web strategy for campaigns that includes easy-to-navigate pages for the online senior population that may not be into all the bells and whistles.  The single most important aspect for any campaign website is its ability to convey information clearly and effectively.

Check our latest article in Politics Magazine…

Many of the campaigns we are involved in this time of the year are primary races with crowded fields. As researchers, these can be some of the most challenging and most interesting races to study because of the variety of ways that voters process information and make decisions among multiple candidates.

Often campaigns and consultants make one of two mistaken assumptions about the way primary voters make choices and these lead to poor strategy and poor performance….MORE

With numerous surveys showing Congressional job approval near an all time low and the President’s job approval rating slipping, Democrats will now drop everything and pin their hopes on a successful legislative session on one issue: health care. 

While it isn’t news that congressional Democrats want to pursue legislation designed to bring more government control into the system, it is rather interesting that they are picking a fight on the one issue the Republicans and their outside conservative allies are ready for.  Since the now infamous “Hillary-Care” battles of the early 90’s, conservative grassroots organizations have been building an army of activists for this exact issue. 

Democrats have huge majorities in the House and Senate AND have President Obama in the White House ready to sign away anything they send him.  But numerous studies indicate that the public is against the spending decisions made by this President, which to date is the Congressional Democrats biggest legislative “achievement.”  With such huge majorities, congressional Democrats have mismanaged the CIA/torture debate, couldn’t pass card-check legislation that their union allies insisted on, and lost support within their own caucus on climate change legislation.  Pick any one of the above issues and the Democrats had full ability to roll the Republican minority under the table on the House and Senate floor. 

Because the Democrats haven’t been able to manage their own caucus effectively, it’s very interesting they are choosing the battle which will unify the conservative base of the Republican Party, as well numerous independent grassroots coalitions opposed to more government control of health care.  Polling data shows solid support in fixing the current system, but there are vast differences between Republicans and Democrats as to HOW to fix it.  Democrats want more government control; Republicans want more private, free-market-based solutions.  While Democrats may be successful in winning the votes on the floors of the House and Senate, they may lose the battle of public perception.  Stay tuned.

UPDATE: After a few discussions about our initial impressions, I want to make a few clarifications because I think my general overview was too critical of a number of operations that went very well.

First, the RNC and NRCC did their jobs well.  They supplied experienced people and made strategic recommendations that were dead-on.  I know that the campaign had asked for the NRCC to pull its ads down attacking Murphy, saying that the ads were hurting Tedisco.  But, I definitely side with the Committee on this point.  Their message was clear and timely.  Furthermore, these guys don’t often make messaging mistakes.  They conduct message testing research and then produce an ad that has proven effectiveness.

Second, both the NRCC and RNC flew in teams of people for the 72-hour GOTV push.  They again showed their committment to winning this race.  The points I made earlier (below) were accounts about actual operations within the campaign and had nothing to do with the assistance the campaign received from the RNC and NRCC which were well executed.

The bottom-line here is that in every close race it is important to take a critical analysis of what we can do better.  This analysis is not to place blame (which is a useless endeavor), but rather to prepare ourselves for future battle.

Original Post:

As the door of opportunity appears to be closing on our chances to pick up a Congressional seat in the NY20 special election, there are several important lessons we can take away (even if we are able to pull out a win in the 11th hour):

• Having the advantage in registration does NOT guarantee victory. Republicans were giddy with hope going into the special election.  They had a solid candidate in a district that McCain came only three-points from taking and a significant advantage over Democrats in voter registration.  Early polling also indicated that we were on top by double digits.  All this good news may have been the reason for our failure as the campaign and strategy we executed was less than competitive, proving that having more voters in the district does little to help when we roll-out a less-than-stellar campaign.
• Targeting works. By some accounts, our eyes were blinded by our natural advantages (see above) so much that we skipped the all important step of targeting the electorate.  This turned out to be disastrous.  The Democrats ran deep segmentations of the electorate, testing messages, themes and strategies that worked to pull in a huge number of Independent voters in addition to their base.  This is a complete role-reversal for Republicans who rolled out sophisticated microtargeting starting in 2000 in Presidential and major races all over the country.  We have the technology, but we failed to use it here and it hurt us.  Even if we didn’t use actual microtargeting, our approach to segmenting the likely voters was less than effective.
• Experienced Campaign Staff and Consultants are a Must. Everyone hates campaign consultants - I get that.  But, these guys and gals have decades of experience and a tool-belt full of proven strategy and tactics that make a difference in the races they work.  I have friends that worked on this race, and I know that this campaign was a weird marriage of only a handful of very experienced staffers and consultants and a ton of people that have little or no experience running a race like this.  There was no excuse for allowing novices to hold leadership roles in the campaign.  There are more suitable races to learn on.
• Finally, GOTV (Get Out The Vote) is King. The bottom-line here is that despite our tried and true 72-hour program, we were out-gunned in GOTV.  Scores of volunteers from all over the country showed up in NY-20 to knock doors and make calls, but without the targeting I mentioned above much of their time was spent with voters that were less than likely to vote.  Our failure at the GOTV level is the culmination of the points I list above.  We were too cocky, untargeted, inexperienced, and flat out-worked.