Gallup has released institution confidence results that show that Americans have very little confidence in Congress.  In fact, it is the lowest point on record:

Despite being at the bottom of the list, Congress did not have the largest drop from last year.  That honor belongs to “the presidency” who dropped 15 points from 51% confidence to 36% confidence in a single year.  That is more than double the movement of any other institution on the list.

The drop in confidence partners with one of the lowest approval rates in the past thirty years means that most Americans maintain strongly negative feelings for Congress.

Politico released a survey this morning that included an oversample of 227 “DC Elites.”  This gives us a unique ability to see how the elites stack up against the American public (represented by 1,011 adults - geographically and demographically representative of the nation at large).

First, let’s examine the demographics of both populations to give perspective to the results:

Gender
General Population (GP): 48% Male - 52% Female
Washington DC Elites (DCE): 40% Male - 60% Female

Age
GP:
18-34:  34%
35-54:  41%
55-74:  25%
DCE:
18-34:  29%
35-54:  38%
55-74:  33%

Income
GP:
<$35,000:  41%
$35,000-$74,999:  40%
$75,000-$149,999:  16%
$150,000+:  3%
DCE:
<$35,000:  0%
$35,000-$74,999:  1%
$75,000-$149,999:  54%
$150,000+:  45%

Ethnicity
GP:
White:  74%
Black/AA:  12%
Asian:  4%
Hispanic:  6%
Native American:  <1%
DCE:
White:  85%
Black/AA:  1%
Asian:  6%
Hispanic:  0%
Native American:  0%

Party Identification
GP:
Strong Dem: 14%
Lean Dem: 21%
Independent: 23%
Lean GOP: 18%
Strong GOP: 14%
DCE:
Strong Dem: 26%
Lean Dem: 25%
Independent: 19%
Lean GOP: 17%
Strong GOP:  9%

Overall, the DC Elite are older, richer, whiter and more Democratic than the general population.  The elite also happen to be more female.

Now, let’s examine the opinions of both groups…

Direction of the Country?
Right Direction: 27% GP - 49% DCE
Wrong Track:  61% GP - 45% DCE

Direction of Economy?
Right Direction: 24% GP - 44% DCE
Wrong Track:  65% GP - 46% DCE

How has the economic downturn affected you?
More than most Americans: 27% GP - 6% DCE
Less then most Americans: 24% GP - 74% DCE
About the same as others:  47% GP - 20% DCE

Do you think the political system in DC is broken?
Yes, Broken:  72% GP - 64% DCE
No, not Broken:  15% GP - 31% DCE

Most Important Issue Facing Country?
Economy/Jobs:  87% GP - 86% DCE
Education:  67% GP - 59% DCE
Healthcare:  65% GP - 64% DCE

How Favorable are you of…
Barack Obama:  25% GP - 36% DCE
Sarah Palin:  14% GP - 3% DCE
Nancy Pelosi:  5% GP - 12% DCE
John Boehner:  4% GP - 1% DCE
Harry Reid:  3% GP - 5% DCE

If election were held today for Congress, would you vote…
Democratic Candidate:  32% GP - 53% DCE
Republican Candidate:  31% GP - 26% DCE

Clearly, the DC Elites are very Democratic leaning in regards to their view of the economy, direction of the country and even showing partiality to Democratic leaders in Washington over their Republican counterparts.  The bottomline is that the DC Elite represent the party in power.  And, for the moment, that party is the Democrats.  Aside from being heavy with female respondents, I see no problem with the oversample’s representative nature.

While Elites are “a world apart,” according to the Politico, they are easily able to identify top issues shared by the general population.  However, the Elites are much more optimistic about the state of the economy primarily because they have been among the least affected.

It is remarkable to see that a majority of Elites agree with the general population that “the political system in DC is broken.”

Polls and anecdotal reports indicate heavy Democratic losses in November, but it isn’t because Americans have new found love for Republicans.  In fact, Americans have the least confidence in Republicans in Congress to make the right decisions for the country’s future leaving both Obama and Democrats in Congress better equipped to deal with our problems.  But, these same respondents say that they are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate in November.

What gives?!?

The bottomline is that Americans haven’t forgiven incumbent Republicans for a number of transgressions that allowed the Democrats to take control of Congress and the White House in the past four years.  But, the key word here is “incumbent.”  The nation is fatigued of incumbents, with only 25% of registered voters saying that they would re-elect their representative for Congress while 62% would “look around for someone else to vote for.”  This means Republican incumbents are as much at risk as their Democratic counterparts.  We have seen this vulnerability manifest itself through the defeat of a number of establishment-choice candidates in primaries to date.  We have also noted that Republicans are more negative than Democrats about their own members in Congress, but are setting records for enthusiasm for the November election.

So, why are Republican voters excited about November if they are angry at their own members in Congress?

Bad memories of years past help keep the Republican brand negative, but the potential to vote for a non-incumbent Republican candidate is attractive - not only to the Republican base, but also to Independent/unaffiliated voters.

The Tea Party movement has also helped boost enthusiasm and focus on non-incumbent Republican candidates by helping ignite a renewed sense of fiscal conservatism that fell by the wayside during the 2000s.  The Tea Party-fueled anger has been proven to be more of a frame of mind than an actual defection from the Republican party; however, this has helped oust or weaken moderate and establishment Republicans. At the center of the movement is a belief that the “rank and file” should be in control, not the party fat-cats.  This sentiment hurts the Republican brand internally as well as taint a number of incumbent members by the behavior of the party at-large in previous years despite their own personal records.

The renewed interest by the Republican rank and file could help the Grand Old Party take back Congress.  But whatever the outcome of November, I expect pressure for new leadership to be palpable.  However, we have seen that change for change’s sake is not always the best choice.

Recently released polling data indicates that Obama may no longer be helpful to Democratic candidates.  Sure he can still raise money, but President Obama is currently holding net negative ratings for a number of major issues facing candidates on the campaign trail:

Obama handling Economy
43 Favorable - 54 Unfavorable (was 50 fav - 49 unfav in June)

Obama handling Health Care
45 Favorable - 50 Unfavorable (was 49 fav - 49 unfav in June)

Obama handling Federal Budget Deficit
40 Favorable - 56 Unfavorable (largely unchanged from June)

Obama handling Regulation of Financial Industry
44 Favorable - 50 Unfavorable (was 48 fav - 48 unfav in April)

Those numbers aren’t great for the guy who is meant to give gravitas to candidates about key issues.  Furthermore, overall confidence in Obama is on the decline:

Confidence in Obama
43 Confident - 57 Not Confident (was 47 confident - 53 not confident in January)

The bottomline is that Obama can still raise money for Democratic candidates, but will have a hard time convincing the same “wave” voters that elected him to show up for his comrades.  This takes away the Democrat’s last weapon (positive power of a popular President).

Look for Democratic candidates in traditionally Republican districts to distance themselves and even refuse a visit from Obama in their districts.  The bad news just keeps on coming for our Democrat friends!

The news coverage about the BP spill has forced favorbility toward drilling to fall by nearly twenty points in roughly two months.

Naturally, we have seen a correllation between favorability and cost of gas, meaning that as gas prices spike this summer more Americans will trend back toward drilling.  The BP disaster is a bad thing, but stopping all future drilling is a foolish and generic response to a specific problem.  My bet is that by the end of the summer, Obama will be facing a public that is paying significantly higher prices for gas just months before a major election that could strip him of a friendly Congress.

Gallup releases new data that shows a significant drop-off in enthusiasm among young voters in the US.  This represents the latest in a series of indicators proving that the Obama wave will not make a reappearance in 2010.

Bottomline: Democrats are facing histroic loses.

The seats that the Democratic party won in 2008 due to Obama’s coattails will likely change parties.  Well-funded incumbents facing idiot challengers that shouldn’t have made it through their primaries will save a handful of seats.  But, overall, the Democrats should start bracing for the worst.

The White House should also create a “plan-b,” because Obama will be near lame-duck status at the beginning of the next Congress.

For a man who won just two years ago, Obama is facing a bevy of sagging numbers when it comes to voters’ disposition on re-electing him in 2012.

The most significant change is his support among the Independents, who 54% say Obama does not deserve re-election.  The 2008 exit polling shows Obama winning Independents 52% - 44%.

Health care reform, cap & trade, and the stimulus have created a perfect storm against Democrats and Obama.  The Democratic party is looking at loses that could exceed 40 in Congress, while the President is becoming more unpopular with each passing day.

There is no doubt that the 2010 election is a referendum on Obama’s policies.  The 2010 election could also spell trouble for a President that won with 53% of the vote.

We expect to have the results of the Presidential Straw Poll two-hours earlier than we had originally estimated.  So, look for the results here at 640p EDT, or follow @WRSpolling to see the results live on our Twitter feed.

Find the complete analysis and charts here.  Remember to check back tomorrow after 6p for results of the Southern Republican Leadership Conference 2012 Presidential Straw Poll.

The summary of findings, which are also in the executive summary, are below:

Republicans hold the lead on the Generic Ballot for the first time since 1994
* The Republican base is re-energized and engaged as Independents solidly back Republican candidates over Democrats.
* In fact, support for the generic Democratic candidate has shrunk to fewer than one in five voters.

Health Care, Cap & Trade and a Failed Stimulus = Democratic Loses
* Congressmen face the public’s anger over Health Care, Cap & Trade and the Stimulus that most believe has failed.
* Each of these three issues presents a significant hurdle for dozens of Democratic Congressmen to overcome, especially for those incumbents in conservative-leaning seats.
* In fact, 51 Democrats hold seats in districts that McCain won or where Obama won with less than 55% have voted for two or more damaging pieces of legislation.

Obama’s drop in popularity sets the stage for double-digit Republican take-backs in 2010
* Concerns with out of control spending, the fear of higher takes drives and the continued economic slump pushes Obama’s approval down as Americans realize that the change Obama is bringing is not necessarily the change they wanted.
* History reveals that Republicans are on the heels of a monstrous take-back if Obama is unable to turn his image around.
* Based on current data, we estimate the GOP to gain approximately 36 seats in November.

Health Care may be the straw that broke the Donkey’s back.
* Initially the health care legislation was popular; however, Republicans and opponents to the reforms have successfully eroded the support as most surveys showed a majority of Americans opposing the legislation the day it passed.
* A majority now disapprove of the President on the issue of health care, making it difficult to effectively put a positive spin on the vote in an attempt to make it more palatable before November.
* Even after the vote, a solid majority say they oppose the reform and believe that the new law will result in increased costs and decreased quality of care.

Disapproval with Health Care Reform erodes trust in Obama about economy.
* A majority of Americans believe that the new health care legislation will drive-up debt, balloon spending and force Congress to increase taxes. This is a driving reason why voters are trusting Obama less on the economy.
* In fact, spending, debt and taxes have risen as top issues in many campaigns across the country as a solid majority worry about the effects health care will have on our economic future.

Republicans hold the edge in the 2012 Presidential.
* If the election were held today, the generic Republican Presidential candidate would beat Barack Obama by nearly 10-points.
* Support for Obama, even his base support, is weaker than the base support for the generic Republican candidate. This indicates a fatigue among Democratic party faithful, some of whom think he didn’t go far enough with health care and other pieces of legislation, while other more conservative Democrats believe he has gone too far. Regardless, his base is eroding.
* Much like we measured for the generic Congressional candidate, Independents are swinging back to red as trust and support for Obama is now at 24% despite his winning of this bloc with over 50% in 2008.

2012 swing voters?
* The target voters for 2012 are among the same population that Obama targeted to beat Hillary Clinton.
* The swing voter has a tendency to be female independents who are single living in the west and northeast with lower incomes and education.
* These voters cast their ballot for Obama in 2008, but aren’t sold on voting for him – or the Democrats – again in 2010 or 2012.
* The are clearly disturbed by the “change� Obama brought to Washington, as they believe that government is doing too much to intervene in the economy.

As the Democratic Congressional Leadership considers a number of options to pass the President’s health care reform, campaign challengers and third-party organizations prepare a number of attacks that weaken party members everyday (like this one).

It seems as Democrats are currently painted in a corner as they ponder failure or passage of the legislation through a parliamentary loophole (aka, without a real vote). From my perspective, the Dems are in a lose-lose-lose position.

First, Dems lose everyday health care reform is still alive. Dozens of Republican opponents (and even some conservative Democratic primary opponents) are campaigning that they would be the “no” vote. In virtually every competitive district in the nation, a majority of voters oppose the health care reform for a number of reasons. Even if the reform is passed, the benefits won’t start fast enough to put down the nay-sayers.

Second, Dems lose if they pass reform without a vote. Now that Republican Scott Brown holds the magical 60th vote in the Senate, Democrats are considering the use of a parliamentary loophole that would enact the legislation without a real vote. This serves to only rally the voters who strongly oppose the reform and excites a group of people hell-bent on ousting every Dem who allows passage in this way.

Finally, Democrats lose if they fail. Despite being the best option, failing to pass health care reform emboldens Republicans and renders the White House powerless and vulnerable for the 2012 elections.

There is no doubt that health care reform, no matter its fate, will be seen as a major reason for the coming Republican renewal.