One of the things that I find most amazing about the Republican victories this cycle is that they have generally come in the least likely of places. Who would have thought just a year ago that the voters of Massachusetts would elect a REPUBLICAN to replace Teddy Kennedy!

Yesterday, Republicans once again won in Democratic territory—this time in the Empire State. The New York Republican Assembly Campaign Committee (RACC) successfully won three of the four special elections in the New York City area despite a massive snowstorm keeping people away from the polls. We at Wilson Research Strategies are extremely proud of RACC and congratulate them on their successes, especially Assemblyman-elect Dean Murray’s victory in the 3rd Assembly District, whose polling we conducted on behalf of RACC.

One month ago, there was a lot of talk about how Scott Brown’s nearly flawless campaign (compared to the disaster that was Martha Coakley’s) was the main reason why he won. I’m not saying this wasn’t the case, but I think a lot had to do with the fact that our base is finally motivated again. And just how motivated…that is a question that we need to answer sooner rather than later.

Wilson Research Strategies recently conducted an Optimal Republican Voting Strength (ORVS) analysis of New York for RACC. ORVS analysis is a way of creating partisan strength on the local district level based upon past success in statewide races. In all three of the seats that Republicans won or held yesterday, the Republican Voting Strength (RVS) was at least 49%.

You are probably wondering what this all means now. Let’s start with Assembly District 3, which encompasses the towns of Brookhaven and Patchogue in Suffolk County. Voter turnout was lower than expected, but in the end Dean Murray had a 186-vote lead over Democrat Lauren Thoden. The RVS in this district is 52.5%, which means that it is a winnable seat with a solid campaign and a motivated electorate. And that is exactly what happened here yesterday.

The other two Republican wins yesterday only provide further evidence that the winds are blowing in our favor right now. On the other side of Long Island, Republican Michael Montesano won Assembly District 15 with 70% of the vote over Michael Meng to keep the seat in Republican hands. Turnout was so low in this district that it wasn’t even monitored by officials according to Newsday, the local paper. This Nassau County District has a RVS of 58.3%, but the percentage of the vote that Montesano won, compared to that of his predecessor (60%) in 2008 further demonstrates how motivated our base is. And if this weren’t enough evidence, the biggest upset yesterday occurred in Westchester County’s 89th Assembly District (RVS 49.2%), where Republican Robert J. Castelli defeated Peter B. Harkham 55%-45%. This seat, which includes the towns of Bedford, New Castle, and White Plains, has not only been in Democratic hands for decades but in 2008 the Republicans didn’t even put up a candidate! And yesterday, we won it.

These three victories are something we should be proud of. They occurred because Republicans ran solid campaigns in tough seats and turned out the vote. But to win more seats like this, we need to continue getting our voters energized and then find a way to keep them excited for another eight months. And if we can do that, the sky may be our only limit in future elections to come.