I appeared on Fox and Friends to discuss the meeting between McCain and Obama, as well as the possibility of Obama tapping Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State.  Here are my thoughts and the video:

Obama/McCain Meeting

• Obama is doing what every great President aspires to do, reunite the country after a tough campaign. Nearly every President-elect in modern times has done the same.

• I wouldn’t expect much to come out of this meeting. There is virtually no chance that Obama would offer McCain a job in the administration. It is probably just as farfetched to think that McCain would accept the position.

• However, I do think that Obama is being sincere. He’s facing a country that is in a dire economic crisis, entrenched in two wars, and facing a plethora of other problems domestically. The first thing you want to do is to bring the powers that be in DC together, make friends and allies and prepare to deal with the problems.

• This meeting with McCain is likely on-par with his meeting with Hillary Clinton. He wants to bring all of his enemies back into the fold, because he’s going to need a lot of support.

• Don’t expect Obama to put together a “Team of Rivals.”  Remember that this is the same guy that dimissed members of the media from his campaign if their publication failed to endorse him.  Obviously, he doesn’t suffer opposition well.

• A “Team of Rivals” in this day and age is likely impossible, because every argument and disagreemtn would be leaked to the press.

Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State

• Hillary would be a horrible choice for Secretary of State. Sure - she’s likely qualified to do the job and do it well; however, the last thing you want is to add someone to your cabinet that is spending four or eight years running for your job.

• I think she would accept. She can’t get any higher in Senate leadership currently, so the only way to get more exposure is to take a job like this. It would be great for her, but bad for Obama - and possibly the country.

• The Secretary of State has to be unencumbered. The person in that position has to not be distracted with political consequences of tough decisions, especially in a world whose economy is suffering.

• I think Obama met with Hillary Clinton for the same reason he is meeting with John McCain, repairing his relationship with two movers and shakers who can persuade members of their respective parties to support Obama’s policies, budgets and legislation. It is critical to get them both on-board.

There are two scenarios that could help McCain win the election, while still losing the popular vote:

1) McCain will earn a great majority of undecided voters, putting him over the top in all the states that have close races.

2) There is a real and substantial Bradley effect that will keep Obama from getting many of the remaining undecideds.  One could say that this happened in 2006 to Harold Ford, Jr in the race for US Senate in TN.

I’m more inclined to believe that the undecided voters breaking to McCain is more likely.  The reason for this is the same as it was in 96 when Dole won nearly all the undecided votes and in 1980 when Reagan did the same.  With Obama outspending McCain nearly 5 – to – 1 and the enthusiasm behind Obama’s race, those who say they are undecided are not likely to vote for him.  They are afraid to tell the pollster that they are bucking the “popular� candidate, and generally break away from the race leader.

This would allow McCain to win several key states that could put him over the top in terms of Electoral College votes.  This race will be, and really has been for the past several weeks, a state-by-state strategy.  Both campaigns are looking at the states they need to win and NOT the national polling averages.  As we found out as recent as 2000, you can win the popular vote and still lose the Presidency.

States McCain is above 50% in (pollster.com regression estimate based on public polls):
UT, ID, OK, AL, WY, NE (all CDs), KS, TN, LA, AK, TX, KY, SC ,AR, WV=122 Evs

States where he has a significant advantage though not 50%:
GA, AZ, SD bring his total to 150.

Now, in the worst case scenario that’s it for McCain and Obama wins a 388 vote electoral landslide….that’s not beyond the realm of possibility.

But, if we buy one of two scenarios I listed above, then we can give McCain other states where Obama remains under 50%:  IN, MT, FL, MO, NV, NC, ND which get’s him only to 225…you can begin to see how big the challenge is.

So we have to make some assumptions about the effects of strategy and messaging.

• If there is a really big Bradley effect and the McCain “Joe the Plumberâ€� plus “Obama pals around with terroristsâ€� strategies can work, OH (where Obama leads by 5 and has 50% in the pollster.com average estimator) could go McCain.  That gets him to 245 and now we start talking a path to victory.

From there there are two paths.

1. Put it all on PA: Team McCain could be right about their ability to score a shocking win in PA.  If that’s true it puts McCain at 266 and he needs one of the following states to break his way (all of which Obama leads by single digits and is above 50% in….): CO, NM, VA, WA, MN, WI, MS

2. Swing States Strategy: If Team McCain is wrong (and it seems like their fundamental assumption about PA isn’t being borne out), then he could win by grabbing states where Obama is only at 50%: NM and MS plus adding two of MN, WI or CO (or NH plus 1 Maine CD)…all places where Obama has single-digit leads and is around 51%.

PA certainly allows them to concentrate resources, but it also seems like a real long shot at this point.  A strategy around NM, MS, and two others is more complicated logistically and that may be why they have chosen to focus on PA.  But there’s another advantage to a swing-state strategy rather than a PA strategy—McCain could contribute resources and his presence to as many as four or even five (if he includes NH) embattled GOP Senators and could help a number of House candidates with close races with this strategy.

In PA he does little for the Party other than possibly (depending on resource allocation within the state) help a couple of Congressional candidates.

I covered this briefly in my appearance on Neil Cavuto’s show on Fox News.  Also, major Kudos to Bryon Allen for his analysis:

 McCain’s closing days strategy is two-fold: 1) respond to the economic crisis by focusing on Obama’s plans to increase taxes – highlighting that the middle class and small business owners, like Joe the Plumber, will be faced with substantial hikes. 2) keep the heat on Obama by continuing to demonstrate that he is not ready to be President – that Obama just doesn’t have the experience to deal with a major crisis. The Biden comment that Obama will be tested by an International Crisis plays into McCain’s hands. Polling shows that McCain is still viewed by voters as having the right experience, as the electorate maintains that he is better suited to deal with major issues and crisis that the US could face now and in the future.
 The problem McCain faces is that the economy is a monster issue, and the Obama campaign is trying to keep the focus on the economy, relating our current crisis to failed Republican policies. He has to address the economy by making Obama’s response a negative. Talking about possible tax hikes seems to be the only way, currently, of doing that. And, I think we can expect to see more of that language from the McCain campaign from now until the Election.
 The Obama campaign lost its best asset as Senator Obama is in Hawaii; however, the news of Obama taking time off to spend with his sick grandmother is a homerun. I know it isn’t a set-up or strategy, but the sheer media coverage of his decision helps him seem stronger on family issues – framing him as placing significant importance on the family. This will help his image with many undecided and persuadable voters.
 While Obama is gone, the campaign need to move Biden to an undisclosed location and shut him up. He has, since day one, been the biggest liability to Obama campaign. He really isn’t helping Obama, and does nothing but give the Republicans ammunition.
 Polling indicates that last week was a good week for John McCain. Despite a number of surveys indicating that Obama won the last Presidential debate, McCain has made significant gains in the battleground states. He is now slightly ahead or within striking distance in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, and Colorado – a group of states that have to be won to secure the Presidency.
 The polling also indicates two aspects that are driving the strategy of both campaigns – voters trust Obama on the economy, but believe that McCain has the right experience to be President. Another remarkable aspect is that McCain is making headway on the economy. Obama still maintains the lead in trust, but McCain has narrowed the margin in many of the battleground states including Florida where voters are split evenly over which candidate can best deal with the economy. Clearly, McCain’s focus on Obama’s tax hike plan is having an effect.
 If McCain continues to marginalize Obama’s advantage in dealing with the economy, he should be able to strengthen his support in these critically important states.

WRS CEO Chris Wilson appeared on Fox News Your World with Neil Cavuto today to discuss a strategy in which McCain can still win.  This has been a campaign of swings, and you can expect at least one or two more between now and Election Day. This has also been called the “so you’re saying there’s a chance” strategy.

For this scenario to be plausible, you have to assume McCain wins West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina. That understood, McCain then needs to win…

1. Missouri
   1. The race remains in the Margin of Error of recent polling;
   2. Missouri is a very pro-life state, voters are not fans of Obama position on live birth abortions;
   3. McCain can use life issue, cloning, stem cell research, etc.
2. Ohio
   1. McCain was leading into late September in trend data, showing the electorate to be very volatile;
   2. Obama comments that voters “clinging to guns and religion� – make this about Obama being unacceptable;
   3. McCain need to capitallize on Obama’s connections to Bill Ayers, Fannie Mae executives and ACORN (voter registration fraud).
3. Florida
   1. Like Ohio, Florida has been very back and forth since the conventions;
   2. Florida voters are more hawkish on foreign policy than rest of country;
   3. McCain’s pro-Israel, pro-military stances will help here;
   4. Obama has not been seen as a strong supporter of Israel while McCain has—this matters to a large portion of swing voters in Florida.
4. Colorado
   1. This is a state Obama should have locked up through the convention, while McCain has lead in some polls as recently as last week.  However, it’s very up and down;
   2. Issue wise, domestic energy development in some parts of the state are big and this is an edge for McCain that needs to be pushed;
   3. Also social conservative issues in southeastern part of the state are key to winning—McCain has to drive up turnout CD 5 if he hopes to win.  This is a place Palin can help big.

New Hampshire is also winnable because McCain is personally popular there, but if McCain wins the first three and loses Colorado then you have a 269-269 tie and Obama wins when it’s thrown to the House.

Watch Wilson’s comments below:

 

Nightly tracking continues to show a stable lead for Barack Obama.

Obama leads in all age brackets (Obama/McCain):
18-29 year olds: 60/34
30-49 year olds: 50/44
50-64 year olds: 47/45
65+ year olds: 45/44

Men slightly favor McCain with 47%, while women support Obama with 53%.

McCain is winning the white vote with 50% support, while the African American (89%) and Hispanic (64%) vote are going to Obama. Gallup tracking will continue show Obama following the same trend as we head to Election Day.

The debate is on! Politico and Drudge Report have reported that McCain will be at the debate this evening. The question becomes will the debate affect voters? Historically speaking, most debates do little to move the numbers either way, with the exception of 1960, 1976, 2000 and 2004. In those election cycles, the debates moved the numbers because either the elections were extremely tight to begin with or because the debates were very influential in public opinion.

However, none of the debates were the same week of a major national crisis with a contentious presidential election. No debates were the same week of one of the most risky campaign moves seen in presidential campaign history- McCain’s suspension.

An assortment of debate moments over the years, whether the elections were tight or not, have made an impression with Americans.

In 1960 Nixon looked sweaty, pasty (Nixon had requested no makeup before the debate- which was a very bad decision) and rigid compared to Kennedy. Radio audiences reported Nixon won the debate, but TV audiences gave it to Kennedy.

1980- Because Carter did not debate Reagan until there was less than one week before the Election, there is not a data that shows how the debate affected voters’ decisions. Reagan led Carter by 3 points the week prior to Eday. He then won by 10 points. Again, without data to show the debate moved public opinion, it did not help Carter. The debate footage shows Reagan at ease, confident and ready to be President. He did well with “Here you go again,� while shaking his head and smiling to the American people.

Reagan Debates

1992, President George H. W. Bush kept looking at his wrist watch.

2000, Al Gore…sighed. A lot.

Tonight, regardless of everything that has happened in Washington, McCain needs to make sure he watches his temper. Obama needs to be able to say what he means in a short amount of time and pay attention (he has been accused of staring into space while others speak). Watch to see Obama interrupt McCain to push his buttons and McCain to force Obama to his point.
After McCain’s campaign suspension and the failure to come to a consensus on a financial bailout plan, the stakes are extremely high for McCain. He put a lot of political collateral in on his suspension this week and it does not appear to go as planned. To make sure that he ends this week on a high note and to mitigate the potential for tracking numbers to dip again, he needs to have a stellar performance tonight.

Obama is in a great situation going into the debate. As long as he does not have any major gaffes and is able to provide substance in his answers, he could very well continue his trend and move undecideds on to his side.

At the highest rate so far, 53% of Americans rate the economy of poor. Gallup reports, “that it one point higher than we’ve seen on the current economy ever.� From their tracking, Obama has held a 3 point lead over John McCain. Obama’s numbers peaked over McCain last week when the Wall Street collapses began to hit the news and have faltered only slightly.

Now that John McCain has suspended his campaign to deal with the economic bailout plans, he may be able to sway public perception. This could be a game changer. The possibility exists that McCain comes off looking like a Maverick, not a politician playing games. Obama could lose trust if he is seen trying to dance around the issues and not help with the financial crisis. Good campaign move or not, more than half of Americans see our economy as poor. As the candidates strategize and campaign (or in the case of John McCain, show up at work and work on the bailout legislation), know that many pessimistic voters are watching how they handle the situation.

The tracking numbers for the next few days will be very interesting- whether or not there is a debate in Mississippi.

As of right now, less than you would think.

Across the board, we see that the economy as the most important issue. Last night, the federal government, under the direction of Secretary Paulson and at the directive of President Bush, met with lawmakers in an emergency meeting. Today, Secretary Paulson held a press conference to lay out the federal government’s next moves to insert itself in to the economy and inject tax dollars.

For months, the presidential campaigns have focused on the economy. Obama has worked to tie McCain to Bush. McCain has worked against that image. Today, we see the Gallup’s numbers from a survey conducted on Wednesday that shows the political effect of the financial crisis. While 4 in 10 voters do not see the current situation affecting their vote, Obama sees a 7 point advantage among those who would let the current meltdown influence their vote. Regardless of the advantage that Obama holds over McCain, voters do not see a difference in who they believe could handle the Wall Street crisis, with 43% saying Obama would handle it best and 42% responding that McCain would.

This week, both candidates have been on the road explaining why their platform is best for handling the current situation. Both have come across problems, with McCain having to dance around regulation issues and Obama avoiding detailed answers. Both have also attacked each other aggressively, with Obama taking more of an offensive position. Regardless of what the candidates say or do for the next few weeks, they can’t pull the trigger on any of their plans. The Bush administration will proceed as it sees fit and hopefully derail further financial disaster.