Hispanics have traditionally leaned more toward Democratic candidates than Republicans; however, between 1999 and 2006, Hispanic voters were progressively becoming more Republican with each election.  This trend has come to an end, as Hispanic voters have made a dramatic shift to become significantly more Democratic than any time in the past decade in just the past two years.

A Pew Center survey of Latino voters reveals that in 2006, Hispanics were leaning less Democratic since 1999 as 49% identify themselves as being a Democrat, and 28% Republican.  But in only two years, 65% of Hispanics now say they lean Democratic with only 26% indicating they are Republican. 

This sixteen-point shift is significant for any bloc of voters to move over a short amount of time and is a clear indication that Democratic candidates, principles, and issues are attracting more Hispanics than ever before.  The Pew survey attributes the movement to overall dissatisfaction with the county’s direction and increasing trust in the Democratic party to bring solvency to a number of Latino community issues.  However, the number of Hispanics that believe the country is headed on the wrong track (70%) is not drastically different from the overall number of voters in the US that believe the same (74%) [Source: NBC/Wall St Journal Survey - July 2008].  This means that Hispanics, like the majority of voters all over the country, are frustrated with the status quo - which includes a Democratic controlled Congress.

The fact that Hispanics are moving away from the Republican Party is another indication that the GOP brand is damaged and continuing to falter at a macro identification level; however, this doesn’t necessary mean that 65% of Hispanics will vote for a Democrat over a Republican in November.  The truth is that Hispanics, just like most swing voters, develop indirect personal connections with candidates.  These personal motivations contribute more to how these voters will cast their ballot than how they identify themselves (i.e., Democrat, Republican, Independent, etc).

Most swing voters (including Hispanics) won’t turn their full focus on the Presidential race until mid-to-late September at the earliest.  By then, both parties will have their conventions and ground operations will be in “full-swing.”  Television, radio, mail and print ads will begin to be more plentiful than interns on Capitol Hill.  These tactics will influence how these voters view and ultimately choose their next President.