Polls and anecdotal reports indicate heavy Democratic losses in November, but it isn’t because Americans have new found love for Republicans.  In fact, Americans have the least confidence in Republicans in Congress to make the right decisions for the country’s future leaving both Obama and Democrats in Congress better equipped to deal with our problems.  But, these same respondents say that they are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate in November.

What gives?!?

The bottomline is that Americans haven’t forgiven incumbent Republicans for a number of transgressions that allowed the Democrats to take control of Congress and the White House in the past four years.  But, the key word here is “incumbent.”  The nation is fatigued of incumbents, with only 25% of registered voters saying that they would re-elect their representative for Congress while 62% would “look around for someone else to vote for.”  This means Republican incumbents are as much at risk as their Democratic counterparts.  We have seen this vulnerability manifest itself through the defeat of a number of establishment-choice candidates in primaries to date.  We have also noted that Republicans are more negative than Democrats about their own members in Congress, but are setting records for enthusiasm for the November election.

So, why are Republican voters excited about November if they are angry at their own members in Congress?

Bad memories of years past help keep the Republican brand negative, but the potential to vote for a non-incumbent Republican candidate is attractive - not only to the Republican base, but also to Independent/unaffiliated voters.

The Tea Party movement has also helped boost enthusiasm and focus on non-incumbent Republican candidates by helping ignite a renewed sense of fiscal conservatism that fell by the wayside during the 2000s.  The Tea Party-fueled anger has been proven to be more of a frame of mind than an actual defection from the Republican party; however, this has helped oust or weaken moderate and establishment Republicans. At the center of the movement is a belief that the “rank and file” should be in control, not the party fat-cats.  This sentiment hurts the Republican brand internally as well as taint a number of incumbent members by the behavior of the party at-large in previous years despite their own personal records.

The renewed interest by the Republican rank and file could help the Grand Old Party take back Congress.  But whatever the outcome of November, I expect pressure for new leadership to be palpable.  However, we have seen that change for change’s sake is not always the best choice.

A newly released survey indicates that while many Americans believe that the views of the Democratic Party are “too liberal,” the Democrats are still perceived as being more “just about right” than Republicans.  This is yet another indication that the Republican brand continues to viewed as being extreme and possibly elitist.

Don’t lose me here.  The news isn’t the number of people who say that Democrats are “too liberal” or the number who say that Republicans are “too conservative.”  Those people aren’t going to vote for those parties anyway.  It’s those in the middle that we should be concerned about.  Those are the swing voters - the people who decide elections.  Now, thinking in those terms you will note that what’s more troubling for Republicans is the fact that the number who say that the views of the Republican party are “about right” has declined since the election.  This is problematic for a party that is struggling to rebrand itself by searching desperately for a leader, a purpose, and a new way to connect with voters.

A quick look at the critically important bloc of Independent voters reveals a 13-point gap between the number who view the Democratic party views as “about right” and those who view the Republican party views the same way.  This is another warning sign that those voters who dealt the GOP loses in 2006 and 2008 still have problems connecting ideologically with the party and its candidates.

Clearly, whatever we have been doing (or not doing) as a party is not working.  Voters are still moving away from us, and time is running out.  There is no doubt that the recent Ensign, Sanford and even the bizarre move by Palin over the weekend has hurt the way some voters view the Republican party.  We are desperately in need of a new direction, a new strategy, and a leader that we can get behind that isn’t reactive, emotional, extreme or divisive.