From politico.com - the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the healthcare “overhaul” will be $115 billion more than original projections.

For a man who won just two years ago, Obama is facing a bevy of sagging numbers when it comes to voters’ disposition on re-electing him in 2012.

The most significant change is his support among the Independents, who 54% say Obama does not deserve re-election.  The 2008 exit polling shows Obama winning Independents 52% - 44%.

Health care reform, cap & trade, and the stimulus have created a perfect storm against Democrats and Obama.  The Democratic party is looking at loses that could exceed 40 in Congress, while the President is becoming more unpopular with each passing day.

There is no doubt that the 2010 election is a referendum on Obama’s policies.  The 2010 election could also spell trouble for a President that won with 53% of the vote.

Find the complete analysis and charts here.  Remember to check back tomorrow after 6p for results of the Southern Republican Leadership Conference 2012 Presidential Straw Poll.

The summary of findings, which are also in the executive summary, are below:

Republicans hold the lead on the Generic Ballot for the first time since 1994
* The Republican base is re-energized and engaged as Independents solidly back Republican candidates over Democrats.
* In fact, support for the generic Democratic candidate has shrunk to fewer than one in five voters.

Health Care, Cap & Trade and a Failed Stimulus = Democratic Loses
* Congressmen face the public’s anger over Health Care, Cap & Trade and the Stimulus that most believe has failed.
* Each of these three issues presents a significant hurdle for dozens of Democratic Congressmen to overcome, especially for those incumbents in conservative-leaning seats.
* In fact, 51 Democrats hold seats in districts that McCain won or where Obama won with less than 55% have voted for two or more damaging pieces of legislation.

Obama’s drop in popularity sets the stage for double-digit Republican take-backs in 2010
* Concerns with out of control spending, the fear of higher takes drives and the continued economic slump pushes Obama’s approval down as Americans realize that the change Obama is bringing is not necessarily the change they wanted.
* History reveals that Republicans are on the heels of a monstrous take-back if Obama is unable to turn his image around.
* Based on current data, we estimate the GOP to gain approximately 36 seats in November.

Health Care may be the straw that broke the Donkey’s back.
* Initially the health care legislation was popular; however, Republicans and opponents to the reforms have successfully eroded the support as most surveys showed a majority of Americans opposing the legislation the day it passed.
* A majority now disapprove of the President on the issue of health care, making it difficult to effectively put a positive spin on the vote in an attempt to make it more palatable before November.
* Even after the vote, a solid majority say they oppose the reform and believe that the new law will result in increased costs and decreased quality of care.

Disapproval with Health Care Reform erodes trust in Obama about economy.
* A majority of Americans believe that the new health care legislation will drive-up debt, balloon spending and force Congress to increase taxes. This is a driving reason why voters are trusting Obama less on the economy.
* In fact, spending, debt and taxes have risen as top issues in many campaigns across the country as a solid majority worry about the effects health care will have on our economic future.

Republicans hold the edge in the 2012 Presidential.
* If the election were held today, the generic Republican Presidential candidate would beat Barack Obama by nearly 10-points.
* Support for Obama, even his base support, is weaker than the base support for the generic Republican candidate. This indicates a fatigue among Democratic party faithful, some of whom think he didn’t go far enough with health care and other pieces of legislation, while other more conservative Democrats believe he has gone too far. Regardless, his base is eroding.
* Much like we measured for the generic Congressional candidate, Independents are swinging back to red as trust and support for Obama is now at 24% despite his winning of this bloc with over 50% in 2008.

2012 swing voters?
* The target voters for 2012 are among the same population that Obama targeted to beat Hillary Clinton.
* The swing voter has a tendency to be female independents who are single living in the west and northeast with lower incomes and education.
* These voters cast their ballot for Obama in 2008, but aren’t sold on voting for him – or the Democrats – again in 2010 or 2012.
* The are clearly disturbed by the “change� Obama brought to Washington, as they believe that government is doing too much to intervene in the economy.

CNN releases polling this morning that shows a solid majority (59%) oppose the health care reform pushed through Sunday night.  This is bad news for Democrats who are taking the credit (or blame) for the landmark bill’s passage.

The worst number in the polling results is the percentage of Americans that believe the amount they pay for medical care will increase:

“From what you know of that legislation, do you think the amount you pay for medical care would increase, decrease, or remain the same if it becomes law?”
Increase: 62%
Decrease: 16%
Remain the Same: 21%
Unsure: 1%

This could cripple the bill even more in the minds of voters, many who are still struggling to pay bills as the nation still faces double-digit unemployment.  The Democrats now face spending all summer trying to convince voters that the bill will not hurt them.  This data shows that to be an uphill battle:

“From what you know of that legislation, do you think you and your family would, in general, be better off, worse off or about the same if it becomes law?”
Better off: 19%
Worse off: 47%
About the Same: 33%

This keeps looking better for Republicans.  But, it is still imporant to understand that voters are angry at incumbents of both parties.  Candidates and incumbents shouldn’t stand behind a cookie cutter repeal statement put out by national party leaders (not that those statements are wrong).  Instead, they should stand on their own (even saying the same thing), putting distance between them and a city that is on every voters’ hit list.

President Obama has announced a bi-partisan health care summit. 

 

“I want to come back [after the Presidents Day congressional recess] and have a large meeting — Republicans and Democrats — to go through, systematically, all the best ideas that are out there and move it forward,� Obama said in an interview.

 

Although he has expressed frustration at Republicans for not wanting to “compromise,” the main battle brewing seems to be within the ranks of Obama’s Democrat party. 

 

Many have asked the question: Should the Republicans participate in the summit?  Public opinion polls show that American’s do not support the Democrat’s health care legislation, and this is reflected in President Obama’s approval rating on the matter.  Unless the President throws out the current House and Senate versions and starts over from scratch, the “summit” charade is meaningless based on the public’s dissatisfaction with the legislation.

 

While the American people do not support the current Democrat health care plans, they also don’t feel the Republicans have laid out a plan at all.  Sources tell me this is about to change. 

 

Congressional Republicans must decide whether the summit that the President is hosting is the proper venue for releasing the details of their health care reform plan.  Being that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other congressional Democrats have stated that certain aspects of the bill (portions that are the most unpopular with the American public) must remain, it’s highly unlikely that the President will allow the Republicans to upstage his own party at his own “summit.”  

 

Republicans must ask the President for 2 things if he wants their participation in the summit:

 

1) Totally scrap the current legislation and start over from scratch

2) Allow the Republicans to unveil their health care reform bill

 

If the answer to either is “NO,” the GOP would be better off taking a pass on the summit and releasing their plan on a different forum.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced late last night that Democrats have reached a “broad agreement” on their health care “reform” bill. 

With a self-imposed deadline approaching, Senate Democrats are on the edge of their seats waiting to hear back from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) about how much the proposed provisions would cost taxpayers. 

At a time when Americans disapprove of the President’s handling of the health care issue, Senate Democrats seem to be pushing a new national health care plan that would expand Medicare and Medicaid.  Republican Olympia Snowe, a moderate from Maine whom the Democrats are courting for a vote described it this way:

“My deep concern is about the breadth and scale of this legislation, taking it in a more expansionistic approach for government’s role rather than the reverse,�

There will be no spin from the Democrats on this issue: their bill will cost more, spend more and put government in charge of our health care system.  Being that it appears the Democrats will have to take this plan to the floor without a single Republican vote, watch to see if they can hold their Caucus together on what has become a very unpopular piece of legislation.

Much has been discussed among pundits, elected officials and consultants on which issues will drive the national debate leading into 2010.  For starters, there’s the pending health care vote in the US Senate, and while Senate Democrats and their House counterparts will continue to whip the votes necessary for their respective body’s final passage, public opinion isn’t on their side. 

While the health care vote(s) is an immediate snap shot about how the public views the role of government involvement on that specific issue, the major problem the Democrats are dealing with is the ECONOMY - JOBS - SPENDING issues.  A recent piece in The Hill gives a back-and-forth among experts who debate whether jobs or the deficit will be more of a driving issue.

After a post-election analysis of the New Jersey and Virginia victories by the GOP, it’s clear that independents, seniors and suburban voters broke toward the Republican candidates by decisive margins.  The reason: ECONOMY - JOBS - SPENDING.  While public opinion shows Americans can substantiate the different reasons behind each of issue, they equate them as a single issue: “Government is doing a bad job on the economy, thus the county is losing jobs, and we don’t trust the federal government’s continued spending of our hard earned dollars.”

The ECONOMY - JOBS - SPENDING issues will continue to be a force in districts and states with a high concentration of suburban and independent voters, as well as seniors.  The current health care debate will continue to force the Democrat-controlled Congress’ hand on how to deal with these issues.  The longer these issues stay in the forefront of voter’s minds, the better ammo the Republican candidates will have to contrast themselves to the national Democrat’s problems. 

Gallup released survey results that show Republicans leading in the generic ballot by 4 points and registering a 22 point advantage over Democrats among independant voters.

from the PRIsm Political Report:

Saturday’s healthcare reform vote in the House will continue to spark debate as to which members correctly calculated their individual positions, if only from a purely political context.  A great deal of attention will fall upon two groups of Democratic members, the Blue Dog Coalition, made up of self-described fiscal moderates, and those majority party members who represent congressional districts that GOP presidential nominee John McCain carried in last November’s election. 
 
Of the 52 Blue Dogs, 24 voted against the Speaker’s healthcare reform bill on Saturday night.  In the session’s other most controversial issue, the Cap & Trade climate change vote held earlier in the year, 29 Coalition members opposed the Leadership position.  Seventeen Blue Dogs supported both bills.  A total of 18 voted NO on both.  The “Noes” are:
 
                   Bobby Bright - AL-2            Mike McIntyre - NC-7
                   Parker Griffith - AL-5           Dan Boren - OK-2
                   Mike Ross - AR-4                 Jason Altmire - PA-4
                  Jim Marshall - GA-8              Tim Holden - PA-17
                  John Barrow - GA-12           Stephanie Herseth Sandlin - SD-AL
                  Walt Minnick - ID-1                Lincoln Davis - TN-4
                  Charlie Melancon - LA-3     John Tanner - TN-8           
                  Travis Childers - MS-1         Jim Matheson - UT-2
                  Gene Taylor - MS-4               Glenn Nye - VA-2
 
Of the 49 Democrats representing McCain districts, 31 voted against the healthcare reform measure.  The 18 members from this category that voted in favor of the Pelosi package are:
 
                  Marion Berry - AR-1                Charlie Wilson - OH-6                  
                  Vic Snyder - AR-2                   Zack Space - OH-18
                  Ann Kirkpatrick - AZ-1            Kathy Dahlkemper - PA-3
                  Harry Mitchell - AZ-5               Chris Carney - PA-10
                  Gabrielle Giffords - AZ-8        John Murtha - PA-12
                  John Salazar - CO-3               John Spratt - SC-5
                  Brad Ellsworth - IN-8               Tom Perriello - VA-5
                  Baron Hill - IN-9                        Alan Mollohan - WV-1
                  Earl Pomeroy -ND-AL             Nick Rahall - WV-3
 
Just seven members who appear to be in the most vulnerable political districts, from a presidential race perspective, and supported both Cap & Trade and Saturday’s healthcare measure are (in order of statistical vulnerability):
 
                  Tom Perriello - VA-5                Vic Snyder - AR-2
                  Zack Space - OH-18                Gabrielle Giffords - AZ-8
                  John Spratt - SC-5                  John Murtha - PA-12
                  Baron Hill - IN-9
 
Only one Republican supported the healthcare bill.  Rep. Ahn “Joseph” Cao, who represents a New Orleans district where President Obama scored 75% of the vote, was the sole member of the GOP to vote with the Democrats on this particular issue.  Cao is clearly the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the 2010 election cycle.

Yesterday, the Senate Finance Committee passed its version of health care “reform” legislation.  Does this mean the battle has been won for President Obama and Congressional Democrats?  Hardly.

Much has been made about Finance Committee Chair Baucus’ ability to gain one Republican vote, but Senate Democrats still must hold their Caucus together for the expected full vote on the Senate floor.  A large amount of work has to be done internally BEFORE it gets to the floor, as many Democrat Senators are not yet committed to voting for this legislation.

If they are looking at public opinion surveys, their concerns are legitimate.  A recent Rasmussen survey shows opposition to the Democrats plan is still high.  The data also shows that the public firmly believes the cost of health care will rise, while the quality of care will get worse if the legislation is enacted.

While the Democrats won in Committee yesterday, the battle is far from over and survey trends indicate that the public is still very much against their actions.