Politico released a survey this morning that included an oversample of 227 “DC Elites.”  This gives us a unique ability to see how the elites stack up against the American public (represented by 1,011 adults - geographically and demographically representative of the nation at large).

First, let’s examine the demographics of both populations to give perspective to the results:

Gender
General Population (GP): 48% Male - 52% Female
Washington DC Elites (DCE): 40% Male - 60% Female

Age
GP:
18-34:  34%
35-54:  41%
55-74:  25%
DCE:
18-34:  29%
35-54:  38%
55-74:  33%

Income
GP:
<$35,000:  41%
$35,000-$74,999:  40%
$75,000-$149,999:  16%
$150,000+:  3%
DCE:
<$35,000:  0%
$35,000-$74,999:  1%
$75,000-$149,999:  54%
$150,000+:  45%

Ethnicity
GP:
White:  74%
Black/AA:  12%
Asian:  4%
Hispanic:  6%
Native American:  <1%
DCE:
White:  85%
Black/AA:  1%
Asian:  6%
Hispanic:  0%
Native American:  0%

Party Identification
GP:
Strong Dem: 14%
Lean Dem: 21%
Independent: 23%
Lean GOP: 18%
Strong GOP: 14%
DCE:
Strong Dem: 26%
Lean Dem: 25%
Independent: 19%
Lean GOP: 17%
Strong GOP:  9%

Overall, the DC Elite are older, richer, whiter and more Democratic than the general population.  The elite also happen to be more female.

Now, let’s examine the opinions of both groups…

Direction of the Country?
Right Direction: 27% GP - 49% DCE
Wrong Track:  61% GP - 45% DCE

Direction of Economy?
Right Direction: 24% GP - 44% DCE
Wrong Track:  65% GP - 46% DCE

How has the economic downturn affected you?
More than most Americans: 27% GP - 6% DCE
Less then most Americans: 24% GP - 74% DCE
About the same as others:  47% GP - 20% DCE

Do you think the political system in DC is broken?
Yes, Broken:  72% GP - 64% DCE
No, not Broken:  15% GP - 31% DCE

Most Important Issue Facing Country?
Economy/Jobs:  87% GP - 86% DCE
Education:  67% GP - 59% DCE
Healthcare:  65% GP - 64% DCE

How Favorable are you of…
Barack Obama:  25% GP - 36% DCE
Sarah Palin:  14% GP - 3% DCE
Nancy Pelosi:  5% GP - 12% DCE
John Boehner:  4% GP - 1% DCE
Harry Reid:  3% GP - 5% DCE

If election were held today for Congress, would you vote…
Democratic Candidate:  32% GP - 53% DCE
Republican Candidate:  31% GP - 26% DCE

Clearly, the DC Elites are very Democratic leaning in regards to their view of the economy, direction of the country and even showing partiality to Democratic leaders in Washington over their Republican counterparts.  The bottomline is that the DC Elite represent the party in power.  And, for the moment, that party is the Democrats.  Aside from being heavy with female respondents, I see no problem with the oversample’s representative nature.

While Elites are “a world apart,” according to the Politico, they are easily able to identify top issues shared by the general population.  However, the Elites are much more optimistic about the state of the economy primarily because they have been among the least affected.

It is remarkable to see that a majority of Elites agree with the general population that “the political system in DC is broken.”

WRS is happy to post a guest post by Field Strategist Amelia T. Chasse.

Last week, Sen. Lindsey Graham predicted that the Tea Party movement would “die out� in the near future. Graham is probably keeping his fingers crossed that his prediction becomes reality before his 2012 re-election campaign, as the strength of Tea Party is creating difficulties for incumbents and political insiders like the South Carolina Senator. Take Graham’s close friend and Senate ally, John McCain, for example. Two years ago, the perennially popular Arizona Senator was the Republican nominee for President. Now, McCain is facing a difficult primary challenge in the form of Tea Party-backed J.D. Hayworth, who as been able to energize the state’s increasingly conservative base and successfully portray McCain as a spineless moderate.

Voters won’t decide McCain’s fate until August 24th, but the 2010 primary season has already seen its share of upset losses for political insiders. In April, Florida Governor Charlie Crist announced his withdrawal from the state’s Republican Senate primary to run as an Independent. The moderate Governor faced an almost certain loss to Tea Party-backed Marco Rubio, so he chose to opt out and take his chances as a third party candidate rather than suffer a humiliating primary defeat. The trend continued in the Kentucky Senate primary in May with activist Rand Paul’s insurgent victory over Secretary of State Trey Grayson.

Those who attributed Paul’s victory to a famous father and a conservative electorate got a wake up call on June 8th, when California voters nominated businesswomen Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman over former Congressman Tom Campbell and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner in the respective Senate and Gubernatorial primaries. The same day, Nevada and Maine, two states generally rife with moderate Republicans, both nominated Tea Partiers in key primaries contrary to the predictions of the most recent polls. In Nevada, activist Sharron Angle beat former State GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden to take on Sen. Harry Reid in November, and small town Mayor Paul LePage’s insurgent, below-the-radar campaign came out on top against well-known state Senator Peter Mills and two millionaire self-funders in the Pine Tree State’s gubernatorial primary.

The next major test of this emerging pattern could be the August 10th Colorado Senate primary, where activist Ken Buck seems poised to beat former Governor Jane Norton; a recent Survey USA poll has him up by sixteen points.

Many, like Sen. Graham, chalk up the strength of the Tea Party to the anger-fueled “throw the bums out� mentality that is gripping the GOP electorate in the wake of the Obama administration’s liberal policy initiatives. While that dynamic certainly plays a major role, it does not account for the fact that insiders aren’t the only candidates being defeated en masse by Tea Partiers. Businessmen candidates, whom many analysts predicted would be strong in 2010 due to the troubled economy, are also falling short when faced with conservative activist opponents. Several of the contests mentioned above included at least one competitive candidate running on private-sector business credentials. Las Vegas businessman Danny Tarkanian finished in third place in Nevada, and Maine’s LePage also defeated well-funded businessmen Les Otten and Bruce Poliquin.

California is an interesting exception, with two pragmatic former CEOs emerging as the GOP nominees for Senate and Governor. Whitman did not have a Tea Party challenger in her race, but Fiorina took on activist Chuck DeVore, who finished third. A possible explanation is that, historically, only moderate Republicans have been able to get elected in the Golden State, leading GOP voters to be more strategic about their choices. Additionally, California’s notoriously expensive media market requires candidates to be extremely well-funded to be competitive, and both Fiorina and Whitman were able to pour millions of their own money into their primary bids, which their competitors could not match.

The lesson to be drawn from California is that the Tea Party draws its strength from right-wing grassroots activism and candidates who excel at retail politics, and thus is at its least effective in states that trend moderate and rely heavily on the wholesale politics of paid media. However, even in those states, the electorate is still choosing political outsiders.

With the 2010 election season about to go into full swing, these primary races provide an opportunity to take the temperature of likely voters, which aids political analysts in predicting the outcome of the races ahead, and candidates in refining their messages to appeal to the electorate. At the very least, the GOP primaries to date have made it clear that the Tea Party will play a major role in this election cycle, so pundits may want to revise their earlier assessments about the legitimacy and effectiveness of the movement, and incumbents and insider candidates may want to reconsider running on past experience, and pivot to talk about what they will do for the future.

Amelia Chasse can be reached at atchasse@gmail.com.

WRS is happy to post a guest piece by Field Strategist Amelia T. Chasse.

Sharron Angle’s surprising but decisive win in the Nevada Senate primary has given veteran Senator Harry Reid an opponent who is his antithesis; a brash, fiery outsider competing with the ultimate insider for a vulnerable Senate seat in a critical midterm election. In order to pull off a victory against the entrenched Senate Majority Leader, Angle must quickly transition from the small-time retail campaigning that made her a State Assemblywoman into building the organized statewide campaign infrastructure that will make her a Senator. A few pointers:

1. Run against Reid, not Obama.
In states with relatively popular Democratic incumbents, Republican candidates would do well to tie their opponents to an increasingly unpopular President. This is not the case in Nevada. While Obama’s approval rating is at 45-50% according to most polls, Reid’s hovers around an anemic 35%, making him significantly less popular than the President. Angle needs to focus the campaign on Reid, and avoid engaging Obama if he shows up to stump for the Senator. Approval numbers for Congress as a whole are even lower than Reid’s, having recently dipped under 20%, so all attempts should be made to tie Reid to Nancy Pelosi and his other colleagues in the increasingly unpopular legislative body.

2. Run a tight ship.
Angle already has the support of the activists, which is great for building community organizations and recruiting volunteers. This type of support can be powerful when harnessed, and in turn, can become a liability if allowed to run wild. To run a successful general election campaign against an entrenched incumbent, Angle must bring in professional campaign staff and consultants, and do so quickly, in order to whip her very informal organization into the focused, disciplined campaign she will need to win. A campaign with a cohesive strategy and a solid infrastructure will be able to direct and manage Angle’s strong grassroots support, and convert it into votes on Election Day.

3. Message, message, message.
Angle will be the target of a constant barrage of attacks from Reid, high-profile surrogates, and Democrat special interest groups. Angle’s campaign must have impeccable message discipline when responding to these attacks in order to avoid being backed into a corner and looking inconsistent and amateurish. This requires a defined message, a strong communications team, and a rapid-response operation to rival Clinton’s famous 1992 “war room.� It also requires the candidate herself to be as disciplined and on-message as her campaign.

4. Use the enthusiasm gap.
According to a recent Gallup poll, enthusiasm levels among GOP voters are the highest they have been in decades, even higher than they were leading up to the 1994 Republican Revolution. There is also a 15-point enthusiasm gap between the two parties, with 59% of Republicans and only 44% of Democrats describing themselves as “more enthusiastic than usual� at the prospect of voting in the upcoming election. Nevada’s electorate is composed of 43% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and about 20% Independents. However, following the 2006 midterm election, the number of registered voters in each party was about equal, so it is likely that a statistically significant percentage of registered Democrats are so-called “Obama Democrats� that are less likely to vote in a midterm election. This means that a strong GOTV operation alone could carry Angle to victory.

5. Build out, not up.
Angle doesn’t need to worry about energizing the base, so however tempting it may be to revel in the adoration of thousands of hard-core supporters, it is essential she focus on coalition-building. Angle has voter enthusiasm and momentum on her side, but Reid is certain to have a strong turnout operation of his own. To ensure victory, Angle needs to have better numbers as well as a better operation heading into Election Day. Fortunately, Reid’s low approval numbers indicate that a significant amount of Independents and Democrats are disenchanted with their Senator. The Angle campaign needs to devote a significant amount of its energy and resources to reaching out to these Independents and soft Democrats, perhaps by garnering a few key bipartisan endorsements and emphasizing non-controversial policy proposals. If Angle is able to run an inclusive campaign focused on kitchen table issues that effect all Nevadans, it will pay off in November.

Amelia can be reached at atchasse@gmail.com.

This week in a National Journal interview, political prognosticator Charlie Cook views Republicans, “…on a trajectory,” to winning back the House of Representatives.

Cook: I’ve spent the last couple of days talking to some of the brightest Democrats in the party that are not in the White House. And it’s very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don’t lose the House. It’s very hard. Are the seats there right this second? No. But we’re on a trajectory on the House turning over….

In Nevada Senate news, the PRIsm Political Report give this analysis on recent survey results for embattled Majority Leader Harry Reid:

Liberal Poll: Reid’s Worst Numbers

 

Research 2000, the Maryland-based national polling firm who surveys the electorate for liberal organizations and newspapers, just completed a Nevada poll that reveals disastrous results for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.  The survey, for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC), was taken over February 9-10 and interviewed 600 likely Nevada voters.

 

While Reid has routinely trailed the two top Republican candidates, former state GOP chair Sue Lowden and ex-Secretary of State candidate Danny Tarkanian — son of the legendary University of Nevada at Las Vegas basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian — this new data, commissioned by a source group friendly to Reid, is revealing leads for both Lowden and Tarkanian are well into double-digits.

 

Against Lowden, Reid trails 39-53% and has a huge 36-60% deficit among male voters.  The former Republican chair, 1973 Miss America contestant, and casino owner enjoys a 46-42% advantage among females.  Lowden is attracting 88% support among Republicans when paired with the Majority Leader, 20% from Democrats, and leads the all-important Independent category 58-32%.  Tarkanian’s numbers are similar.  He tops Reid 54-40% in the overall vote count; has the same 60-36% whopping advantage among men; and leads with women 48-44%.  He gets 89% support from Republicans; 21% among Democrats; and Independents split 59-34% in his favor.

 

Not surprisingly, Reid’s best support group is African American voters, where he clears 73% against both Republicans.  He also does well with Obama voters, which certainly stands to reason.  Of the respondents claiming they voted for Mr. Obama in 2008, Reid keeps 56%, but even within this sub-group, a full third (32% for Tarkanian; 34% pledging to Lowden) are saying they will vote Republican for Senate. 

 

By a margin of 53-29%, the respondents believe President Obama and the Democrats in Washington have not delivered on their campaign promise to “change” America.  The healthcare numbers, in fact the purpose for which the PCCC sanctioned the poll, are quite disparate.  Overall, by a margin of 34-58%, the respondents oppose the healthcare bill that was before the Senate.  Conversely, the split is 56-38% in favor of the federal government offering the choice to buy into a government-administered health insurance plan that would compete with the private sector.  They also would look more favorably upon Reid if he could pass such a plan (34-15% more likely to support).

 

Though the Majority Leader’s numbers are poor, and reminiscent of former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine’s political position in early 2009 - a situation he never succeeded in reversing - there are some parts of the set-up equation that do play to his favor and don’t rule out a come back. 

Nevada has officially recognized the Tea Party as a statewide political entity.  This means the Tea Party has the right to field candidates for office and will likely nominate a U.S. Senate standard bearer.  If the race tightens, which is likely, the Nevada Tea Party’s candidate will presumably take votes away from the eventual Republican nominee, especially if it is Lowden, who many in the Tea Party movement term a “Republican in Name Only (RINO)”.  Secondly, Reid’s overwhelming ability to command campaign resources will certainly dwarf the Republican campaign dollar effort, but in a high profile race such as this, individual candidate and outside group spending becomes a bit less important.  Third, Nevada has been trending Democratic in the past few elections, meaning the state’s political and demographic trends are more beneficial to Reid and his party than the Republicans.

 

Another negative, however, concerns Reid’s own son.  Rory Reid is a Clark County (Las Vegas) Commissioner who is openly talking about running for Governor.  Though Republican incumbent Jim Gibbons is in deep political trouble, it is more likely that not he will be defeated in the GOP primary, assuming he even runs for re-election.  Any other Republican will be stronger against the Democrats, meaning the fact that both Harry and Rory Reid will be on the ballot could then become troublesome for both men.  Candidate filing closes on March 12^th, so the younger Reid has only several weeks to officially enter the race.  The Nevada primary is June 8^th. 

 

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) opened the Senate floor yesterday in a tirade accusing Senate Republicans of “playing games” regarding some of President Obama’s nominations.

Unfortunately for Mr. Reid, his current rhetoric contradicts statements he made during President Bush’s tenure.

July 23, 2008 – Senator Harry Reid, the Senate Majority Leader, told his fellow Senators last week that he “can’t ever remember going home� and hearing voters complain to him about Bush’s blocked judicial nominations or judicial activism.

Here’s what Sen. Reid said: “I’m telling you, Madam President, I can’t ever remember going home and somebody saying, ‘Could you guys (confirm) some more judges? We need to take care of this judges problem.’ ” … “Frankly, judge(s) is not a big issue (compared) to all of the other problems we’re facing in America.â€�

 

 

May 9th, 2005 (Fox News) - “We know the difference between opposing nominees and blocking nominees. We will oppose bad nominees, but we will only block unacceptable nominees,” Reid said.

March 15, 2005 (Bloomberg) - Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid threatened to bring the Senate to a halt if Republicans try to change the chamber’s rules to prevent the minority party from blocking President George W. Bush’s judicial nominees.

September 16, 2007 (Reuters) - But Reid appeared to slam the door on him, vowing to do all he could as majority leader to prevent (Theodore) Olson’s confirmation

November 16, 2007 (RollCall) - Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has decided to keep the chamber in session over the Thanksgiving break to block President Bush from making any unsavory recess appointments while Senators are out of town.

April 5, 2005 - In the November 2004 election, Republicans increased their Senate majority to 55 seats, and President Bush has re-nominated seven of the 10 blocked nominees (the others did not desire re-nomination). But the new Democratic leader, Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nv.) said that the Democrats will again block them by filibuster.

Who playing politics now Harry

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced late last night that Democrats have reached a “broad agreement” on their health care “reform” bill. 

With a self-imposed deadline approaching, Senate Democrats are on the edge of their seats waiting to hear back from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) about how much the proposed provisions would cost taxpayers. 

At a time when Americans disapprove of the President’s handling of the health care issue, Senate Democrats seem to be pushing a new national health care plan that would expand Medicare and Medicaid.  Republican Olympia Snowe, a moderate from Maine whom the Democrats are courting for a vote described it this way:

“My deep concern is about the breadth and scale of this legislation, taking it in a more expansionistic approach for government’s role rather than the reverse,�

There will be no spin from the Democrats on this issue: their bill will cost more, spend more and put government in charge of our health care system.  Being that it appears the Democrats will have to take this plan to the floor without a single Republican vote, watch to see if they can hold their Caucus together on what has become a very unpopular piece of legislation.

In case you missed it, after spending over a million dollars on a month’s television advertising in Nevada (a massive buy, there), Harry Reid actually lost ground in his re-election battle.  During this time Republican Danny Tarkanian actually gained a point to lead Reid 48%-42% among registered voters in the latest Mason-Dixon survey commissioned by the Las Vegas Review Journal.  Among likely voters, well, you can imagine…

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/most-important-number/the-most-important-number-in-p-73.html?wprss=thefix

One of the time-honored tricks of political professionals is “leaking” information to the press.  Many unnamed sources of certain high-level campaigns have used this method to position their campaign strategy in a positive light to a targeted audience, or get information out on their opposition.  More commonly “leaking” is used on your political opponents through an unnamed or independent source to shed light on the flaws of your opposition. 

This takes us to the question of leaking internal campaign strategy: good idea or bad?  Yesterday Politico did a piece on how Sen. Reid intends to “vaporize” his Republican opponent(s).  It’s no secret that Reid’s approval ratings are upside-down and the same survey has him losing outside the margin of error to every GOPer tested.  The Politico piece goes on to show how, per the campaign strategy of New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, hitting hard, fast and furious can drive up the negative ratings on the opposition and stymie any support for the Republican candidate, allowing Reid to define the eventual Republican to the public before that candidate can define one’s self.  While the strategy may be a sound one, the “leaking” of the strategy may be his downfall.

Reporters go to many means to deliver information from various sources, as that is their job.  But the “leaker” inside Reid’s camp just gave away the blueprint to how the campaign plans to attack his Republican opponents.  As a Republican, I thank the Reid team for delivering us their internal strategy. 

As a political strategist, I believe the strategic decisions of the campaign team need to stay internal.  You gain nothing by ”leaking” your campaign’s course of action. The job of the campaign team is to put out the best information to the public in the many arenas of paid and earned media.  Crafting the various messages, positive and negative, takes time, but pushing out the information in this day-in-age can be rapid.  It’s the campaign’s job to stay on message, work within the plan and deliver the messages timely and effectively; not to leak the strategy.

On a week where Senate Democrats should be celebrating their filibuster proof majority, a recent survey indicates their 60th vote, now-Senator Al Franken (D-MN), will have no honeymoon period with voters.  44% of those surveyed indicate an unfavorable opinion of the junior Senator from Minnesota, compared to just 34% who view him favorably. 

While it’s important to note that the survey conducted was a nationwide study and not specific to Franken’s home state of Minnesota, the fact he begins his tenure his such high name ID nationwide indicates he could have more of a national platform than Senate Democrats would like him to. 

Without question, Franken will be a reliable vote for the liberal wing of Senate Democrats.  Here in lies Harry Reid’s problem.  If the Democrat base sees Reid as too willing to compromise key elements of their legislative priorities, they may turn to Franken for their sound bites, elevating him as a national hero for liberal causes.  A recent piece by Thrush and Raju in politico, while not alluding to Franken, illustrates this:

“We have 60 votes on paper,” [Reid] told the New York Times on Thursday.  “But we cannot bulldoze anybody; it doesn’t work that way.  My caucus won’t allow it.  And we have a very diverse group of Senators philosophically.  I am not this morning suddenly flexing my muscles.”

Nice try.  But that argument isn’t likely to assuage hungry progressives who have found their agenda stymied by the left-right infighting among Senate Democrat’s and Reid’s old-school consensus-driven management style. 

Harry Reid’s “management style” will be put to the test almost immediately among the liberal base.  Recent posts by liberal bloggers are demanding action.

Republicans now have an opportunity to take advantage of Franken’s high negatives.  The often-quoted, sound-bite heavy Senator elect will enevitablly be a sounding board for the liberal base.  Couple that with the Democrats inability to move substantive legislation that the American people support, and we have a new face in the Senate Democrat caucus.    Combining Reid’s high unfav’s with Franken’s will give the public a snapshot of where the Senate Democrats priorities really are and will highlight the vast policy differences between the liberal left and independent swing voters.

Wilson Research Strategies, in conjunction with The Hill Newspaper has conducted a survey of politically active Hill subscribers to determine how well several ads currently or recently on TV resonated with politically aware voters.  The five ads, which can be found in the Air Wars video repository, met with varying responses.  The first was an attempt to rally support for Obama’s economic plan.

AUC “Factory”
Perhaps the flashiest ad tested, “Factory” has an upbeat message paired with uplifting music.  With Obama’s reassuring voice resonating over images of steel plants churning, factory windows being repaired and people cheerfully constructing new buildings, “Factory” attempts to inspire and reassure.  However, despite being visually attractive ad, the AUC spot fails to effectively convey a message.  It’s lukewarm ratings indicate average penetration as the message fails to meet the production quality.  It’s mediocre ratings demonstrate that the message was not focused enough to be effective.

SEIU “Hard Work”
With the NRSC going after Harry Reid with ads like “Trillion” (previously tested in Air Wars) the SEIU goes to bat for Harry Reid but it looks like a swing and a miss.  The uplifting, energizing music plays with images of buildings being constructed and solar plants coming online.  The ad falls short of the average ratings across all categories.  Even Democrats acknowledge that, while the ad may be credible, it is lacking a strong message.  With Reid being targeted by ads that score much better (see “Trillion” in our video repository), the Democrats will need to come up with something better.

EFAC “EFCA will cost jobs”
Stark visuals and tense music lends a sense of immediacy to this ad from the EFAC.  The ad finds strong support from both Republicans and Independents, while Democrats give the ad a low rating but fully recognize the power of the message it conveys.  As the debate regarding card check continues to heat up, both sides are trying desperately to give this issue economic implications.  Other surveys indicate that the strongest opposition message is the legislation’s elimination of the secret ballot; however, pro-EFCA groups are pushing to make this a public bail-out of sorts.  This has forced anti-EFCA groups to respond.  Putting ads like this in front of voters is one of those responses.

DCCC “Jim Tedisco- Just Another Albany Politician”
Worried music and a scolding narration don’t help this ad against Jim Tedicso, which was run in the hard fought NY-20 special election.  The DCCC ad does nothing more than motivate the base Democrats – most whom weren’t voting for Tedisco anyway.  The Independent voters who the ad was targeted at find it less than effective, perhaps indicating that the “same old politician who helps his wealthy friendsâ€� theme is played out and isn’t moving this block of critically important voters against Tedisco.  Running ads that fail to move Independents could be one of the reasons the DCCC and Scott Murphy are currently counting  ballots.

TFC “One of Them”
The Tedisco campaign ran this ad in the late days of the campaign, linking Scott Murhpy to the AIG bonus scandal.  The low score of the ad again proves that despite a race that has become a referendum on national economic policies, voters are perhaps more interested in local issues.  This is especially true of the Independents who give the ad a less than average score.  Like the “Factory” ad run in support of Obama’s economic policies, this ad fails to hammer home its message in a way that impacted voters, which may be why Tedisco is currently trying to overtake Murphy’s slim ballot lead with vote recounts long after election day.