NPEA Air Wars WRS Insider Blog


Corzine, Dodd TV ads score below average
Chris Christie, Jon Corzine, Chris Dodd


Christie's Corruption-fighting Scores on TV
Chris Christie, Charlie Crist, DSCC, Marco Rubio, Health Justice, Terry McAuliffe


Air Wars Analysis March 26-31, 2009
Barack Obama, Jim Tedisco, Scott Murphy, Card Check, Harry Reid


Early GOP ad on stimulus uninspiring
Harry Reid, America's Power, Chamber of Commerce, Reality Coalition, American Rights At Work


Hastings Wyman, Southern Political Report 'Grits'
James Inhofe (R-OK), Tom Feeney (R-FL)


Air Wars Analysis September 29 - October 30, 2008
John McCain, Barack Obama, Tom Feeney (R FL), Tim Bee (R AZ), Chris Shays (R CT), Gabrielle Giffords (D AZ)


Air War: Feeney’s mea culpa ad scores, honestly
John McCain, Barack Obama, Tom Feeney (R FL), Tim Bee (R AZ), Chris Shays (R CT), Gabrielle Giffords (D AZ)


Air Wars Analysis September 17, 2008
McCain, Palin, Obama, Dole (R-NC), Fimian (R-VA)


The Air War: "Coleman's shot at Franken's 'juicy porn' not quite a bull's-eye"
Barack Obama, John McCain, Ronnie Musgrove, Norm Coleman, Al Franken


The Hill: Air War: MoveOns Not Alex ad scores big with independents
MoveOn.org, Obama, McCain, Gordon Smith, Harri Anne Smith


Air Wars Analysis July 17, 2008
John McCain, Barrack Obama, Harri Anne Smith (R-AL), Gordon Smith (R-OR)


The Airwar: Warner keeps it going with first ad offering
Warner (D-VA), Dole (R-NC), Sununu (R-NH)


Air Wars Analysis, June 18, 2008
RNC, Sununu, NRSC, Warner, MoveOn.org


Air Wars Analysis, June 3, 2008
Barack Obama (D), John McCain (R), Bob Schaffer (R-CO), Mark Udall (D-CO), Jay Love (R-AL)


04-16-08 President
Barack Obama (D), John McCain (R)


11-18-07 President
Edwards(D), Clinton(D), Thompson(R), Paul(R)


03-18-08 ‘3 a.m.’ ad unconvincing
Clinton


10-23-07 President
Obama(D), Clinton (D), McCain (R), Richardson (D), Romney (R)


9-21-07 President
Thompson (R)


8-22-07 The Best
and Worst
Campaign Ads
of 2006
(Winning Campaigns)


8-15-07 President
Anti-Huckabee
LA Gov
Jindal (R), Boasso (D)
MS Gov
Eaves (D)


7-24-07 President
Obama (D), Edwards (D)
KS 02
Anti-Jenkins
DCCC Veterans Ad


6-28-07 President
Richardson (D), Kucinich (D), Dodd (D), Clinton (D)


5-30-07 President
Richardson (D), Anti-Bush (D), Dodd (D), Thompson (R)


5-17-07 President
Edwards (D), Richardson (D), Giuliani (R)


4-25-07 President
Anti-Clinton (D)


3-7-07 President
Romney (R), Hunter (R)


2-16-07 President
Obama (D), McCain (R)


11-16-06 110th Congress

11-7-06 MD Senate
Cardin (D), Steele (R)


10-25-06 NY CD 26
Davis (D), Reynolds (R)


10-12-06 TX CD 17
Edwards (D), Taylor (R)


10-5-06 NY CD 20
Gillibrand (D), Sweeney (R)


9-14-06 MO Senate
McCaskill (D), Talent (R)


7-27-06 CT Senate
Lamont (D), Lieberman (I)


6-29-06 IA Gubernatorial
Culver (D), Nussle (R)


6-15-06 AZ Senate
Pederson (D), Kyl (R)


5-18-06 CA CD 50
Busby (D), Bilbray (R)


5-4-06 PA Gubernatorial
Swann (R)


4-19-06 Abramoff

3-30-06 MI Gubernatorial
DeVos (R)



Wilson Research Strategies and The Hill Ad Review - Blog


 

Posts Tagged ‘Generic Ballot’

Generic Ballot: GOP Resumes Favorable Standing

Tuesday, August 3rd, 2010
Democrat enthusiasm for voting in midterms is lowest seen this year.
by Lydia Saad - Gallup

PRINCETON, NJ — Registered voters favor Republicans by 48% and Democrats by 43% in Gallup’s generic congressional ballot for the week of July 26 through Aug. 1. This follows two weeks when the numbers were nearly reversed.

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While the five-percentage-point edge for Republicans is not statistically significant, it represents a return to the prevailing 2010 pattern, seen since mid-March, whereby Republicans were tied or held a slight advantage over Democrats in most Gallup Daily tracking weekly averages. If sustained through Election Day, this competitive positioning for the Republicans among registered voters would point to major seat gains for that party in November given the usual Republican advantage in turnout.

That turnout may partly depend on Americans’ fervor for voting as Election Day nears. The percentage of registered voters “very enthusiastic” about voting this November fell to 31% for July 26-Aug. 1 from 34% during the July 19-25 period. However, the decline was steeper among Democrats. Their latest 22% “very enthusiastic” figure is the lowest seen thus far in 2010, whereas the Republicans’ 44% matches their average for the year.

Republican voters’ enthusiasm surged to 51% in mid-July, the same week that Congress passed the Wall Street regulatory reform bill — similar to the increase to 54% seen after passage of healthcare reform in March, but these swells have since dissipated.

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Bottom Line

Republicans have returned to a favorable position on Gallup’s generic congressional ballot measure of party strength following two weeks when Democrats enjoyed unusually high support relative to where they stood for most of this year. To the extent congressional passage of financial regulatory reform on July 15 was the impetus for the Democrats’ subsequent gains, the effect has faded.

Republicans’ resurgence this past week could simply represent a return to the prior norm, but may also have been spurred by the Afghanistan war documents leak, the federal judge’s ruling that blocked the implementation of certain aspects of the Arizona immigration law, and perhaps ethics investigations into two powerful senior Democratic members of the House, Charlie Rangel and Maxine Waters.

Notably, over the same two-week period, Americans’ approval of the job President Obama is doing has been flat at 45%.

DC Elite: Wealthy, Democratic, White and Detatched from Reality

Monday, July 19th, 2010

Politico released a survey this morning that included an oversample of 227 “DC Elites.”  This gives us a unique ability to see how the elites stack up against the American public (represented by 1,011 adults - geographically and demographically representative of the nation at large).

First, let’s examine the demographics of both populations to give perspective to the results:

Gender
General Population (GP): 48% Male - 52% Female
Washington DC Elites (DCE): 40% Male - 60% Female

Age
GP:
18-34:  34%
35-54:  41%
55-74:  25%
DCE:
18-34:  29%
35-54:  38%
55-74:  33%

Income
GP:
<$35,000:  41%
$35,000-$74,999:  40%
$75,000-$149,999:  16%
$150,000+:  3%
DCE:
<$35,000:  0%
$35,000-$74,999:  1%
$75,000-$149,999:  54%
$150,000+:  45%

Ethnicity
GP:
White:  74%
Black/AA:  12%
Asian:  4%
Hispanic:  6%
Native American:  <1%
DCE:
White:  85%
Black/AA:  1%
Asian:  6%
Hispanic:  0%
Native American:  0%

Party Identification
GP:
Strong Dem: 14%
Lean Dem: 21%
Independent: 23%
Lean GOP: 18%
Strong GOP: 14%
DCE:
Strong Dem: 26%
Lean Dem: 25%
Independent: 19%
Lean GOP: 17%
Strong GOP:  9%

Overall, the DC Elite are older, richer, whiter and more Democratic than the general population.  The elite also happen to be more female.

Now, let’s examine the opinions of both groups…

Direction of the Country?
Right Direction: 27% GP - 49% DCE
Wrong Track:  61% GP - 45% DCE

Direction of Economy?
Right Direction: 24% GP - 44% DCE
Wrong Track:  65% GP - 46% DCE

How has the economic downturn affected you?
More than most Americans: 27% GP - 6% DCE
Less then most Americans: 24% GP - 74% DCE
About the same as others:  47% GP - 20% DCE

Do you think the political system in DC is broken?
Yes, Broken:  72% GP - 64% DCE
No, not Broken:  15% GP - 31% DCE

Most Important Issue Facing Country?
Economy/Jobs:  87% GP - 86% DCE
Education:  67% GP - 59% DCE
Healthcare:  65% GP - 64% DCE

How Favorable are you of…
Barack Obama:  25% GP - 36% DCE
Sarah Palin:  14% GP - 3% DCE
Nancy Pelosi:  5% GP - 12% DCE
John Boehner:  4% GP - 1% DCE
Harry Reid:  3% GP - 5% DCE

If election were held today for Congress, would you vote…
Democratic Candidate:  32% GP - 53% DCE
Republican Candidate:  31% GP - 26% DCE

Clearly, the DC Elites are very Democratic leaning in regards to their view of the economy, direction of the country and even showing partiality to Democratic leaders in Washington over their Republican counterparts.  The bottomline is that the DC Elite represent the party in power.  And, for the moment, that party is the Democrats.  Aside from being heavy with female respondents, I see no problem with the oversample’s representative nature.

While Elites are “a world apart,” according to the Politico, they are easily able to identify top issues shared by the general population.  However, the Elites are much more optimistic about the state of the economy primarily because they have been among the least affected.

It is remarkable to see that a majority of Elites agree with the general population that “the political system in DC is broken.”

WRS National data shows GOP in lead in 2010 and 2012

Tuesday, April 13th, 2010

From pollster.com:

Wilson Research Strategies (R) / Southern Republican Leadership Conference / Reynolds American
4/5-7/10; 851 registered voters, 3.4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(WRS release)

National

2010 Congress: Generic Ballot
42% Republican, 34% Democrat (chart)

2012 President
45% Generic Republican, 37% Obama

Favorable / Unfavorable
Republican Party: 47 / 42
Democratic Party: 44 / 46