A recent survey by Quinnipiac presents us with more evidence that Americans are beginning to sour on President Obama.  Despite winning a number of key legislative victories, Americans clearly don’t want what Obama is selling.  Now, they are losing confidence in his ability to deal with the most important issue - the economy:

Handling Economy
39% Approve (was 44% in May 2010)
56% Disapprove (was 50% in May 2010)

Policies Hurt Economy  36% (was 32% in May 2010)
Policies Help Economy  41% (was 45% in May 2010)
Made no Difference  19%  (was 18% in May 2010)

Who do you trust to do a better job handling the economy?
Obama   41%
Republicans in Congress  42%
Unsure  17%

As a growing number of voters believe that Obama’s policies have actually hurt the economy, we are seeing a plurality choosing to trust a group (Republicans in Congress) that the public actually thinks less of than Obama to handle the fragile economy:

Republicans in Congress 36% favorable
Barack Obama 49% favorable

This is a disaster for Demcrats who were hoping that Obama could help them save their candidates in the upcoming fall elections.  With each passing day, Obama appears to be more and more of a liability for Democrats across the nation.  We are already hearing reports that Dem candidates in several swing districts are refusing to appear with the President at events.

Republicans seem to be ready to win big in November, but it certainly won’t be because our brand is good.  It seems like we may win in spite of ourselves this fall, especially with more and more bad news coming out about the RNC.

Politico released a survey this morning that included an oversample of 227 “DC Elites.”  This gives us a unique ability to see how the elites stack up against the American public (represented by 1,011 adults - geographically and demographically representative of the nation at large).

First, let’s examine the demographics of both populations to give perspective to the results:

Gender
General Population (GP): 48% Male - 52% Female
Washington DC Elites (DCE): 40% Male - 60% Female

Age
GP:
18-34:  34%
35-54:  41%
55-74:  25%
DCE:
18-34:  29%
35-54:  38%
55-74:  33%

Income
GP:
<$35,000:  41%
$35,000-$74,999:  40%
$75,000-$149,999:  16%
$150,000+:  3%
DCE:
<$35,000:  0%
$35,000-$74,999:  1%
$75,000-$149,999:  54%
$150,000+:  45%

Ethnicity
GP:
White:  74%
Black/AA:  12%
Asian:  4%
Hispanic:  6%
Native American:  <1%
DCE:
White:  85%
Black/AA:  1%
Asian:  6%
Hispanic:  0%
Native American:  0%

Party Identification
GP:
Strong Dem: 14%
Lean Dem: 21%
Independent: 23%
Lean GOP: 18%
Strong GOP: 14%
DCE:
Strong Dem: 26%
Lean Dem: 25%
Independent: 19%
Lean GOP: 17%
Strong GOP:  9%

Overall, the DC Elite are older, richer, whiter and more Democratic than the general population.  The elite also happen to be more female.

Now, let’s examine the opinions of both groups…

Direction of the Country?
Right Direction: 27% GP - 49% DCE
Wrong Track:  61% GP - 45% DCE

Direction of Economy?
Right Direction: 24% GP - 44% DCE
Wrong Track:  65% GP - 46% DCE

How has the economic downturn affected you?
More than most Americans: 27% GP - 6% DCE
Less then most Americans: 24% GP - 74% DCE
About the same as others:  47% GP - 20% DCE

Do you think the political system in DC is broken?
Yes, Broken:  72% GP - 64% DCE
No, not Broken:  15% GP - 31% DCE

Most Important Issue Facing Country?
Economy/Jobs:  87% GP - 86% DCE
Education:  67% GP - 59% DCE
Healthcare:  65% GP - 64% DCE

How Favorable are you of…
Barack Obama:  25% GP - 36% DCE
Sarah Palin:  14% GP - 3% DCE
Nancy Pelosi:  5% GP - 12% DCE
John Boehner:  4% GP - 1% DCE
Harry Reid:  3% GP - 5% DCE

If election were held today for Congress, would you vote…
Democratic Candidate:  32% GP - 53% DCE
Republican Candidate:  31% GP - 26% DCE

Clearly, the DC Elites are very Democratic leaning in regards to their view of the economy, direction of the country and even showing partiality to Democratic leaders in Washington over their Republican counterparts.  The bottomline is that the DC Elite represent the party in power.  And, for the moment, that party is the Democrats.  Aside from being heavy with female respondents, I see no problem with the oversample’s representative nature.

While Elites are “a world apart,” according to the Politico, they are easily able to identify top issues shared by the general population.  However, the Elites are much more optimistic about the state of the economy primarily because they have been among the least affected.

It is remarkable to see that a majority of Elites agree with the general population that “the political system in DC is broken.”

Recently released polling data indicates that Obama may no longer be helpful to Democratic candidates.  Sure he can still raise money, but President Obama is currently holding net negative ratings for a number of major issues facing candidates on the campaign trail:

Obama handling Economy
43 Favorable - 54 Unfavorable (was 50 fav - 49 unfav in June)

Obama handling Health Care
45 Favorable - 50 Unfavorable (was 49 fav - 49 unfav in June)

Obama handling Federal Budget Deficit
40 Favorable - 56 Unfavorable (largely unchanged from June)

Obama handling Regulation of Financial Industry
44 Favorable - 50 Unfavorable (was 48 fav - 48 unfav in April)

Those numbers aren’t great for the guy who is meant to give gravitas to candidates about key issues.  Furthermore, overall confidence in Obama is on the decline:

Confidence in Obama
43 Confident - 57 Not Confident (was 47 confident - 53 not confident in January)

The bottomline is that Obama can still raise money for Democratic candidates, but will have a hard time convincing the same “wave” voters that elected him to show up for his comrades.  This takes away the Democrat’s last weapon (positive power of a popular President).

Look for Democratic candidates in traditionally Republican districts to distance themselves and even refuse a visit from Obama in their districts.  The bad news just keeps on coming for our Democrat friends!

For a man who won just two years ago, Obama is facing a bevy of sagging numbers when it comes to voters’ disposition on re-electing him in 2012.

The most significant change is his support among the Independents, who 54% say Obama does not deserve re-election.  The 2008 exit polling shows Obama winning Independents 52% - 44%.

Health care reform, cap & trade, and the stimulus have created a perfect storm against Democrats and Obama.  The Democratic party is looking at loses that could exceed 40 in Congress, while the President is becoming more unpopular with each passing day.

There is no doubt that the 2010 election is a referendum on Obama’s policies.  The 2010 election could also spell trouble for a President that won with 53% of the vote.

CNN releases polling this morning that shows a solid majority (59%) oppose the health care reform pushed through Sunday night.  This is bad news for Democrats who are taking the credit (or blame) for the landmark bill’s passage.

The worst number in the polling results is the percentage of Americans that believe the amount they pay for medical care will increase:

“From what you know of that legislation, do you think the amount you pay for medical care would increase, decrease, or remain the same if it becomes law?”
Increase: 62%
Decrease: 16%
Remain the Same: 21%
Unsure: 1%

This could cripple the bill even more in the minds of voters, many who are still struggling to pay bills as the nation still faces double-digit unemployment.  The Democrats now face spending all summer trying to convince voters that the bill will not hurt them.  This data shows that to be an uphill battle:

“From what you know of that legislation, do you think you and your family would, in general, be better off, worse off or about the same if it becomes law?”
Better off: 19%
Worse off: 47%
About the Same: 33%

This keeps looking better for Republicans.  But, it is still imporant to understand that voters are angry at incumbents of both parties.  Candidates and incumbents shouldn’t stand behind a cookie cutter repeal statement put out by national party leaders (not that those statements are wrong).  Instead, they should stand on their own (even saying the same thing), putting distance between them and a city that is on every voters’ hit list.

Nearly 15.3 million people are still out of work in the U.S. despite hundreds of billions of dollars spent by the Democratic government to “restart” the economy.

From Politico:

The nation’s unemployment rate held steady at 10 percent in December, presenting a continuing political difficulty for President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats heading into the 2010 midterm elections.

The work force lost an additional 85,000 jobs in December, government figures released Friday showed — a hit to the national economy, but not as bad as during several months at the height of the financial collapse last year.

This has stark, negative political implications for a party that has enjoyed two cycles of successes.  Now, you would be hard-pressed to find a pundit on either side that believes that the Democrats will lose less than a dozen races in the mid-term election.

Even if Democrats can prove that stimulus money has helped the economy (a notion that the American people have yet to believe), the White House and Democratic leaders in Congress face questions about how the money was spent.

According to a recent article in the Washington Post:

As struggling communities throughout the country wait for more help from the $787 billion stimulus package, one region is already basking in its largess: the government-contractor nexus that is metropolitan Washington.

Reports from stimulus recipients show that a sizable sum has gone to federal contractors in the Washington area who are helping implement the initiative — in effect, they are being paid a hefty slice of the money to help spend the rest of it.

Isn’t this type of waste the stuff that VP Biden was supposed to protect us against?  Isn’t this his only job!?!

If there is one thing that a generation of voters hate, it is “Washington, D.C.”  So, this news that a huge amount is being shovled to DC-based firms from their Democratic friends does nothing to help a party that is already looking at losing nearly two-dozen seats.

In fact, this helps bolster the Republican message that the stimulus money has done nothing for the economy except fatten Democratic-friendly firms.

A new survey indicates that reports of double-digit unemployment rates has again put the US economy in the spotlight in a political sense.

This gives more ammo to Republicans who are tarring the Democratic health care reform bill as one that our government, and its taxpayers, cannot afford.  The effectiveness of this tactic is supported by the data above, indicating that fear of an economy that is still on a downward spiral has stark political consequences.

There is no doubt that the economy will play a central role in the 2010 election, putting many incumbents of both parties at risk.

A new report out reveals that the states that need the money the most, are receiving the least:

But FOXNews.com has analyzed data tracking how the stimulus money is being given out across the 50 states and the District of Columbia, and it has found a perverse pattern: the states hardest hit by the recession received the least money. States with higher bankruptcy, foreclosure and unemployment rates got less money. And higher income states received more.

The transfers to the states having the least problems are large. Even after accounting for other factors, each $1,000 in a state’s per capita income means that the state got $21 more per capita in stimulus funds. With a spread of almost $38,000 in per-person income between the top and bottom states, this has a sizable impact. High-income states get considerably more stimulus money.

States with higher bankruptcy rates got a lot less, not more, money — roughly $86 less per person for each percentage point increase in the state’s bankruptcy rate. States with higher foreclosure rates were treated very similarly, losing $82 per person for each one percentage point more of the people suffering foreclosures.

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal reveals that very few economists favor another round of stimulus funding and believe that the unemployment rate will be similar to today’s level by the November 2010 election:

Just eight of 51 economists in The Wall Street Journal’s latest forecasting survey said more stimulus is necessary, suggesting an average of about $600 billion in additional spending. On average, the economists forecast an unemployment rate of at least 10% through next June, with a decline to 9.5% by December 2010.

This puts Obama and Democrats in a precarious situation, as voters are beginning to give ownership of the economy to Obama with each passing day.  Blaming Bush and Republicans for the sour economy will prove to be an ineffective message in the mid-term election.  This leaves only one choice for Democrats - attempt to prove that the economy is better than it actually is.  Look for numerous case-studies and op-eds focusing on financial success stories as Democrats struggle to build the perception that they merely need more time.  This strategy will do little to convince the millions of unemployed, who may be more engaged than Democrats would like.

Recent polling already indicates that approval of Obama’s economic policies is weakening.  This puts Democrats on a slippery slope for the 2010 cycle.  The question is now: can Republicans get their house in order to take advantage?