Nearly 15.3 million people are still out of work in the U.S. despite hundreds of billions of dollars spent by the Democratic government to “restart” the economy.

From Politico:

The nation’s unemployment rate held steady at 10 percent in December, presenting a continuing political difficulty for President Barack Obama and congressional Democrats heading into the 2010 midterm elections.

The work force lost an additional 85,000 jobs in December, government figures released Friday showed — a hit to the national economy, but not as bad as during several months at the height of the financial collapse last year.

This has stark, negative political implications for a party that has enjoyed two cycles of successes.  Now, you would be hard-pressed to find a pundit on either side that believes that the Democrats will lose less than a dozen races in the mid-term election.

Even if Democrats can prove that stimulus money has helped the economy (a notion that the American people have yet to believe), the White House and Democratic leaders in Congress face questions about how the money was spent.

According to a recent article in the Washington Post:

As struggling communities throughout the country wait for more help from the $787 billion stimulus package, one region is already basking in its largess: the government-contractor nexus that is metropolitan Washington.

Reports from stimulus recipients show that a sizable sum has gone to federal contractors in the Washington area who are helping implement the initiative — in effect, they are being paid a hefty slice of the money to help spend the rest of it.

Isn’t this type of waste the stuff that VP Biden was supposed to protect us against?  Isn’t this his only job!?!

If there is one thing that a generation of voters hate, it is “Washington, D.C.”  So, this news that a huge amount is being shovled to DC-based firms from their Democratic friends does nothing to help a party that is already looking at losing nearly two-dozen seats.

In fact, this helps bolster the Republican message that the stimulus money has done nothing for the economy except fatten Democratic-friendly firms.

A new survey indicates that reports of double-digit unemployment rates has again put the US economy in the spotlight in a political sense.

This gives more ammo to Republicans who are tarring the Democratic health care reform bill as one that our government, and its taxpayers, cannot afford.  The effectiveness of this tactic is supported by the data above, indicating that fear of an economy that is still on a downward spiral has stark political consequences.

There is no doubt that the economy will play a central role in the 2010 election, putting many incumbents of both parties at risk.

A new report out reveals that the states that need the money the most, are receiving the least:

But FOXNews.com has analyzed data tracking how the stimulus money is being given out across the 50 states and the District of Columbia, and it has found a perverse pattern: the states hardest hit by the recession received the least money. States with higher bankruptcy, foreclosure and unemployment rates got less money. And higher income states received more.

The transfers to the states having the least problems are large. Even after accounting for other factors, each $1,000 in a state’s per capita income means that the state got $21 more per capita in stimulus funds. With a spread of almost $38,000 in per-person income between the top and bottom states, this has a sizable impact. High-income states get considerably more stimulus money.

States with higher bankruptcy rates got a lot less, not more, money — roughly $86 less per person for each percentage point increase in the state’s bankruptcy rate. States with higher foreclosure rates were treated very similarly, losing $82 per person for each one percentage point more of the people suffering foreclosures.

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal reveals that very few economists favor another round of stimulus funding and believe that the unemployment rate will be similar to today’s level by the November 2010 election:

Just eight of 51 economists in The Wall Street Journal’s latest forecasting survey said more stimulus is necessary, suggesting an average of about $600 billion in additional spending. On average, the economists forecast an unemployment rate of at least 10% through next June, with a decline to 9.5% by December 2010.

This puts Obama and Democrats in a precarious situation, as voters are beginning to give ownership of the economy to Obama with each passing day.  Blaming Bush and Republicans for the sour economy will prove to be an ineffective message in the mid-term election.  This leaves only one choice for Democrats - attempt to prove that the economy is better than it actually is.  Look for numerous case-studies and op-eds focusing on financial success stories as Democrats struggle to build the perception that they merely need more time.  This strategy will do little to convince the millions of unemployed, who may be more engaged than Democrats would like.

Recent polling already indicates that approval of Obama’s economic policies is weakening.  This puts Democrats on a slippery slope for the 2010 cycle.  The question is now: can Republicans get their house in order to take advantage?

A new survey indicates that laid off workers are spending more time engaging in their communities by volunteering (8%) and becoming more involved in their local church (6%).  This newly minted free time could significantly change political environments now that 9% of the US is unemployed.

As the unemployed search for jobs, they are also afforded an opportunity to become more informed on the issues as down time is likely spent in-front of a television or computer.  This could spark higher political engagement, as fatigued and angry people are the forefront of any revolution.

As you could imagine, the growing legion of unemployed are most concerned with providing for themselves (see below); however, attention could soon be turned to the failure of Obama’s “stimulus” to save their jobs.  This could spell trouble for Democrats in 2010.

 

 

A new survey out demonstrates how different voters from both parties view our current economic crisis.  Republicans are returning to their roots, as they worry about the growing deficit, income taxes and budget problems.  Democrats are more concerned with rising unemployment, and healthcare.

Campaigns are stuggling to find the middle-ground economic issues that are important to the base and soft-partisans that are necessary to win.  According to this survey, the cost of health care (not to be confused with access to healthcare), decreasing pay and increasing personal debt may be those issues.

Two newly released national surveys give Republicans mixed news.

First, the good news…

Obama’s image and job approval are beginning to slip as voters exhibit growing concerns about his policies, specifically the growing national debt:

Obama Job Approval
6/09:  56 approve / 34 disapprove
4/09:  61 approve / 30 disapprove
2/09:  60 approve / 26 disapprove

Obama Image
6/09:  60 favorable / 29 unfavorable
4/09:  64 favorable / 23 unfavorable
2/09:  68 favorable / 19 unfavorable

Voters are less inclined to believe that Obama inherited all the problems, and are less excited about the stimulus:

President/Congress should worry more about boosting the economy  35%
President/Congress should worry more about keeping budget down   58%

Obama Inherited economic situation
6/09:  72%
2/09:  84%

Stimulus
6/09:  37 Good Idea / 39 Bad Idea
4/09:  38 Good Idea / 39 Bad Idea
2/09:  44 Good Idea / 36 Bad Idea
1/09:  43 Good Idea / 27 Bad Idea

Now, the bad news for Republicans…

Despite the fact that the stars are beginning to align for anti-Obama and anti-Democratic talking points, the image of Republicans is still falling.  Voters may agree with Republicans that Obama and Democrats are spending too much; however, if we can’t convince voters to like the GOP, it’s a waste of breath and time becauase voters still make decisions based on who they like better.

This chart clearly demonstrates the necessity to adopt a whole new strategy.  Having the right talking points won’t win it alone.

A piece in the WSJ highlights that the recession in a dozen state governments across the nation will last for years to come:

 State budgets look bad now, but they are set to get worse.

The bulk of funds from the federal government’s stimulus package will be allocated by 2011, but tax collections aren’t likely to be enough to take their place — even if the economy is recovering.

The drop in tax revenue is set to be deeper and last longer as collections have become more sensitive to business cycles in recent years. At the same time, states face growing health-care costs and the need to replenish pension programs funded by decimated investments. And some of the stimulus funds expand programs that will require state money to sustain them after the federal largesse runs out.

“There are so many issues that go way beyond the current downturn,” said Scott Pattison, executive director of the National Association of State Budget Officers. “This is an awful time for states fiscally, but they’re even more worried about 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014.”

This is problematic to incumbent Governors who are searching for ways to cover deficits while facing re-election.  This also has the ability to effect the political alignment of state legislatures and Governor’s mansions in the twelve states that are experiencing significant shortfalls that will last for the next 3-5 years as voters reject the incumbent party.

A new survey out again proves a parent’s love as 61% say they would not let the recession or their own financial situation change their plans for the children’s college education, placing funding their child’s college education above retirement - the first time in three years.  This is another indication that a down economy forces many to make tough choices about what matters most during times when money is tight.

Why does this matter to campaigns?  This means that core kitchen table issues resonate as voters are making tough budget calls.  Candidates have to realize this and connect with families that are struggling.  Messaging successfully means delving deeper than just saying that we need better-paying jobs or a plan to bring the US/region out of the recession.  These generalities are meaningless to families making a decision between funding their retirement and a child’s education.

The flip side to this issue is that older Americans are now planning to be at work longer.  This makes issues regarding insurance, benefits, and payroll taxes more important among this population.