from the PRIsm Political Report:

 

Oklahomans went to the polls to choose nominees last night and the Democratic race for Governor proved to be an unexpected nail-biter with a surprise winner.  Despite late polling showing Attorney General Drew Edmondson with double-digit leads over Lt. Gov. Jari Askins, it was she who pulled out about a 1,500 vote victory.  The race was close all night, and Askins withstood an Edmondson onslaught from Tulsa where he racked up 62% of the vote.  Askins was consistently in the low 50s throughout the rest of the state.

 

On the Republican side, Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK-5), as expected, won her nomination outright, scoring 55% of the vote against three other candidates.  Fallin and Askins will now square off in the general election for the right to succeed term-limited Gov. Brad Henry (D).  The Republican Congresswoman begins the race as the favorite.

 

In the Democratic race for US Senate, retired educator Jim Rogers won the right to face Sen. Tom Coburn this fall.  Coburn is rated a safe bet for re-election.

 

In the House races, all incumbents were re-nominated and cruise through easy re-election campaigns.  In the open 5^th district, college professor James Lankford surprised everyone by placing first in the Republican primary with 34% of the vote against former state Rep. Kevin Calvey, who was always believed to be strong enough to qualify for the second ballot.  Calvey finished a close second with 32%.  The August 24^th GOP run-off will be anybody’s game, but the winner will have the inside track to a November victory, as OK-5 is a solid Republican seat.  On the Democratic side, attorney Billy Coyle was an easy winner and will face the victor of the Lankford-Calvey run-off. 

Raising eyebrows in federal campaign political circles, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has reserved some $28 million worth of television advertising time to support the re-election bids of 40 incumbent Democratic Members of Congress and the Democratic nominee in Kansas’ Third Congressional District. While the reservation of advertising time is not necessarily an indication of what the DCCC will actually spend in advertising in each of these congressional districts, the reservations are a possible indication of DCCC’s level of concern about their prospects of holding these seats in November.

 

 

Of interest is the fact that the list of reservations only includes one open seat, so far (KS-3), and no seats currently held by House Republicans. Of the 41 seats in which reservations of advertising time have been placed, President Obama gained a majority of the vote in the 2008 election in 19 of those seats. In 26 of those seats, the Democratic nominee posted double-digit wins during the last election. In nine of those seats, the Democratic incumbent won with a margin or 20 percent or more.

 

 

(* Special election margins)

Reports released a plethora of polls over the Easter holiday.  Some of the key ones are below:

 

AR-Sen:   (3/30; 500 likely AR voters)

 

John Boozman (R)              51%

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D)   36%

 

Gilbert Baker (R)                  51%

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D)   36%

 

John Boozman (R)              48%

Bill Halter (D)                       34%

 

Gilbert Baker (R)                  44%

Bill Halter (D)                        36%

 

Numbers continue to remain consistent in this race.  Rasmussen did not test the Democratic primary.

 

FL-Gov:

  (3/18; 1,000 likely FL voters)

 

Bill McCollum (R)                47%

Alex Sink (D)                       36%

 

These numbers confirm others now showing McCollum with a double-digit lead.

 

IA-Gov:

   (3/17; 500 likely IA voters)

 

Terry Branstad (R)               52%

Gov. Chet Culver (D)           36%

 

Branstad’s lead over incumbent Gov. Culver remains strong

 

NC-Sen:

  (3/22; 500 likely NC voters)

 

Sen. Richard Burr (R)         51%

Elaine Marshall (D)             35%

 

Stronger numbers for Sen. Burr

 

ND-Sen: (3/23-24; 500 likely ND voters)

 

John Hoeven (R)                 68%

Tracy Potter (D)            25%

 

Another poll confirming that this race is already over

 

ND-AL:   (3/23-24; 500 likely ND voters)

 

Rick Berg (R)                        51%

Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D)        44%

 

With Hoeven at the top of the ticket and Pomeroy’s consistent votes supporting the Democratic leadership, this race becomes a legitimate upset possibility

 

SD-AL:   (3/25; 500 likely SD voters)

 

Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)       44%

Chris Nelson (R)                                          42%

 

The latest Rasmussen poll confirms others that show Rep. Herseth Sandlin is in a serious battle for re-election

 

OH-Sen:  (3/30; 500 likely OH voters)

 

Rob Portman (R)                  43%

Lee Fisher (D)                      38%

 

Rob Portman (R)                  45%

Jennifer Brunner (D)             38%

 

These numbers contradict last week’s Quinnipiac University poll that put the Democrats into the lead