I wrote earlier this week that the power of the Tea Party would be displayed if they were able to split the vote, but I think that we can safely say that the conservatives can claim a win by pushing out Dede Scozzafava regardless of Tuesday’s results.

But, I still wonder if there is enough time for Hoffman to recoalesce the base to win on Tuesday.  Even if Scozzafava was pulling between 12-13%, a majority of those voters will have to vote for Hoffman to give him the win.  If they don’t turnout, we may be in trouble.

Here’s hoping that the Scozzafava gets on-board quickly so we can begin to attract her most ardent supporters.  That’s really the only way we can win.

Republican strategist Tyler Harber said the GOP has yet to rebuild its image, and it’s getting a taste of the side effects.

“The base has fragmented as Republicans still face significant morale issues,� said Harber, who is working for special election candidate David Harmer (R) in California. Harmer’s race is the same day — Nov. 3 — as the New York race, but hasn’t lured much national involvement.

Full article here

Alex Isenstadt at the Politico wrote an interesting piece about the New York 23 special election being the first test of the Tea Party’s power.  I couldn’t agree more, but I’m not sure how positive the effect may be.

Tea party activists from across the nation are rallying around the House special election in upstate New York, viewing it as the first electoral test of the nascent conservative movement’s political muscle.

Organizers up and down the East Coast report that activists are making their way into the campaign offices of Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, with the volunteers focusing their efforts in Oswego, Madison and Jefferson counties. While tea party organizers say the election is a unique opportunity to hold the Democratic and Republican parties to account, much of their energy is being directed against Dede Scozzafava, the GOP establishment-backed nominee whom they view as a squishy moderate who represents all that is wrong with the Republican Party.

I don’t necessarily disagree with how the Tea Party members are expressing their anger and backing a candidate they believe in; however, their work will split the Republican vote and give NY CD23 to the Democrats.

The reason I believe the Republican and Conservative party candidates will fail is because they draw support from the same vote base.  If you split the conservative and moderate Republicans in just about any race in the nation, the base erodes and the candidate will lose.  This is not unique to Republicans.  Democrats will lose in many cases if you split the moderate and liberal Democratic base vote.  That’s why Green party candidates are often seen as spoilers in races where the Democrat must earn a solid base vote to win.

The fact is that a major party candidate cannot win with a wounded or split base.  This may be the goal of many of the volunteers in New York currently; however, I bet that most don’t understand that they are working AGAINST Scozzafava, not FOR Hoffman.

The Tea Party activists are, without a doubt, a powerful volunteer force.  Republican candidates should reach out to these activists and bring them into the fold.  Otherwise, this population will siphon votes off many races Republicans can win in 2010.  The same can be said of the libertairans that still have more in common with the Republican party candidates than Democrats.