As Bayh announced his retirement, he offered advice to his Democratic peers.

“My advice to my fellow Democrats is the only way we can actually govern in this country is make common cause with the independents and moderates,” the Indiana centrist said during an appearance on MSNBC. “Sometimes half a loaf is better than none.”

Some pundits believe that the move allows Bayh to concentrate on building his bonafides for an eventual run for President.  But, others opin that his retirement was a way to preserve his power and image by not being beat by a former Senator during a year that Republicans retake seats across the nation.  Either way, losing solid party members is never good news to a party struggling to convince Americans that the Democrats are acting in their best interest.  This is going to be a long year for Dems at all levels.

A new Pew Research Center study provides evidence that Republican voters are smarter about current affairs, issues and news:

Republicans, on average, answered one more question correctly than Democrats (5.9 vs. 4.9 correct). These differences are partly a reflection of the demographics of the two groups; Republicans tend to be older, well educated and male, which are characteristics associated with political and economic knowledge. Still, even when these factors are held constant, Republicans do somewhat better than Democrats on the knowledge quiz.

Among the largest gaps comes over knowledge of who leads the U.S. Senate. About half (48%) of Republicans are able to identify Reid as the current majority leader, while only a third of Democrats can name their own party’s Senate leader. More Republicans can name Reid (48%) than Steele (37%), the RNC chairman.

The one question in the survey in which Democrats slightly outperform Republicans is about the number of women now serving on the U.S. Supreme Court. Close to six-in-ten Democrats (58%) know that more than one woman serves on the high court, compared with 50% of Republicans. Though the Democratic Party is made up of more women than men, this finding does not appear driven mostly by gender. Republican men and women are about equally likely to answer this question correctly (about half each), while solid majorities of both Democratic men (60%) and women (57%) get this question right.

Gallup makes an interesting analysis available this morning that isn’t really good news for Democrats or Republicans.  Here are their top points:

1. Public Opinion on Health Care Reform is Divided, Yet Stable (My interpretation: it’s a faceoff.  The Dems want reform, but Republicans and right-leaning Independents do not.)
2. Americans Do Not have a Strong Sense of Urgency about Passing Health Care Reform. (My interpretation: this is a win for the Republicans because there is little pressing the Dems in Congress to move, other than their own headlines.)
3. Self Interest is Only Part of the Story (My Interpretation: a win for the Dems here, because half of Americans support reform, even though less than half believe the reform can positively effect them personally.)
4. Specific Elements of Reform have Strong Appeal; Some Do Not (My interpretation: a win-win for both Dems and Republicans because there are elements that both use to rally the troops for and against.)
5. Obama holds the Upperhand (My interpretation: obviously, a win for Obama.  Not really for Congressional Dems who are slated to lose over a dozen seats next November.  Obama has yet to prove that he can be a help politically - see Virigina Governor’s race!)

Anyway, take a look at their numbers and make your own call.  The bottomline here: there are no winners.

A new survey out indicates that Independent voters view things more like Republicans than Democrats these days.  This is excellent news for a bruised GOP, searching for a way to come back (or to at least not lose any more seats in Congress).

For the past several days, a number of news agencies have reported that mood about the direction the county is heading in has improved.  This is true.  American are more optimistic than they were even six months ago.  Fatigue with the Bush administration in addition to an accelerated economic recession made things look bleak.  Now, under new leadership, Americans seem to be holding on to more hope that things are improving despite the fact that we are still in the middle of one of the worst economic crisis in decades.

But, a closer loo reveals that Democratic voters are driving this new found optimism, as a majority of Independents and Republicans believe that the US is still “off on the wrong track:”

> Would you say that America is headed in the right direction, or have things gotten off on the wrong track?

Right Direction: 40%   (GOP: 13% | IND: 34% | DEM: 72%)
Wrong Track: 50%   (GOP: 80% | IND: 52% | DEM: 22%)

This gives Republicans a perfect place to begin reaching out to Independents.  Both groups are unhappy about the status quo, especially the push by Democrats and Obama to make government a large, deficit generating institution.

> Which of the following statements about the role of government comes closer to your view:

Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of the people.
47%   (GOP: 26% | IND: 40% | DEM: 72%)

Government is trying to do more things than it can do well, things that should be left to the private sector and individuals.
50%   (GOP: 73% | IND: 55% | DEM: 24%)

> Which of the following statements about the role of government comes closer to your view:Government policies should promote fairness by narrowing the gap between rich and poor, spreading the wealth, and making sure that economic outcomes are more equal.
31%   (GOP: 20% | IND: 28% | DEM: 44%)

Government policies should promote opportunities by fostering job growth, encouraging entrepeneurs, and allowing people to keep more of what they earn.
63%   (GOP: 78% | IND: 65% | DEM: 48%)

Clearly, Independents - like Republicans - believe that the role of government is to promote opportunity and that current action by the Democratic Congress and the administration has likely been too much.  In fact, 70% of Independents say they “prefer a smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes.”

So, if Independents view things similarly to Republicans then why did we lose the White House and dozens of Congressional seats in the past four year?

Generally speaking, the reason we lost in 2006 and 2008 is because we failed to communicate effectively to Independents that we see things the way they do.  We have also been so caught up in pushing social conservative themes (not that they are wrong - see my post about that here) that Independent voters failed to realize that the Republican party is also the party of smaller government and free markets.  They know that we are the pro-life, pro-traditional marriage family.  We have to connect with them about issues they care about: economy, taxes, role and size of government, health care, etc.  Our loses among this critically important bloc is due more to a lack of targeted, effective communication than anything else.

The good news is that 2010 is looking much better for Republicans than either 2006 or 2008.

As I touched on last week, to be competitive in the 2010 campaign and to help rebuild our party’s brand Republicans have to break out of the stale “party of no” response and start offering actual alternatives to Democratic plans.

What concerns me is that there isn’t a consensus on whether to even offer alternatives to Democratic legislation.  Some Republicans on the Hill believe that, as Senator Judd Gregg said in a piece in the NYT, “the responsibility of the majority is to produce the budget and we believe it is more constructive to point out how we would improve their budget.”  I would like to see Republicans be a bit more aggressive; however, if we market our “suggested improvements” adequately, we could begin turning the tide.

Voters have to have two options to weigh, or Republicans will continue to struggle with their image.

Another concerning report came out this weekend that highlights how major Democratic/Liberal organizations are banding together to disseminate pro-Obama talking points.  Unfortunately, Republicans are NOT prepared to fight this concerted effort.

I do believe that the newly reorganized RNC will help get our GOP train back on the tracks, but things will likely get worse for Republicans before it will get better simply because we are just now working to build coalitions that will market our plans and alternatives more effectively.

For now, Republicans are losing the public debate; however, we are working hard to change that fact and I am optimistic that we are preparing to fight the good fight.