Polls and anecdotal reports indicate heavy Democratic losses in November, but it isn’t because Americans have new found love for Republicans.  In fact, Americans have the least confidence in Republicans in Congress to make the right decisions for the country’s future leaving both Obama and Democrats in Congress better equipped to deal with our problems.  But, these same respondents say that they are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate in November.

What gives?!?

The bottomline is that Americans haven’t forgiven incumbent Republicans for a number of transgressions that allowed the Democrats to take control of Congress and the White House in the past four years.  But, the key word here is “incumbent.”  The nation is fatigued of incumbents, with only 25% of registered voters saying that they would re-elect their representative for Congress while 62% would “look around for someone else to vote for.”  This means Republican incumbents are as much at risk as their Democratic counterparts.  We have seen this vulnerability manifest itself through the defeat of a number of establishment-choice candidates in primaries to date.  We have also noted that Republicans are more negative than Democrats about their own members in Congress, but are setting records for enthusiasm for the November election.

So, why are Republican voters excited about November if they are angry at their own members in Congress?

Bad memories of years past help keep the Republican brand negative, but the potential to vote for a non-incumbent Republican candidate is attractive - not only to the Republican base, but also to Independent/unaffiliated voters.

The Tea Party movement has also helped boost enthusiasm and focus on non-incumbent Republican candidates by helping ignite a renewed sense of fiscal conservatism that fell by the wayside during the 2000s.  The Tea Party-fueled anger has been proven to be more of a frame of mind than an actual defection from the Republican party; however, this has helped oust or weaken moderate and establishment Republicans. At the center of the movement is a belief that the “rank and file” should be in control, not the party fat-cats.  This sentiment hurts the Republican brand internally as well as taint a number of incumbent members by the behavior of the party at-large in previous years despite their own personal records.

The renewed interest by the Republican rank and file could help the Grand Old Party take back Congress.  But whatever the outcome of November, I expect pressure for new leadership to be palpable.  However, we have seen that change for change’s sake is not always the best choice.

Recently released polling data indicates that Obama may no longer be helpful to Democratic candidates.  Sure he can still raise money, but President Obama is currently holding net negative ratings for a number of major issues facing candidates on the campaign trail:

Obama handling Economy
43 Favorable - 54 Unfavorable (was 50 fav - 49 unfav in June)

Obama handling Health Care
45 Favorable - 50 Unfavorable (was 49 fav - 49 unfav in June)

Obama handling Federal Budget Deficit
40 Favorable - 56 Unfavorable (largely unchanged from June)

Obama handling Regulation of Financial Industry
44 Favorable - 50 Unfavorable (was 48 fav - 48 unfav in April)

Those numbers aren’t great for the guy who is meant to give gravitas to candidates about key issues.  Furthermore, overall confidence in Obama is on the decline:

Confidence in Obama
43 Confident - 57 Not Confident (was 47 confident - 53 not confident in January)

The bottomline is that Obama can still raise money for Democratic candidates, but will have a hard time convincing the same “wave” voters that elected him to show up for his comrades.  This takes away the Democrat’s last weapon (positive power of a popular President).

Look for Democratic candidates in traditionally Republican districts to distance themselves and even refuse a visit from Obama in their districts.  The bad news just keeps on coming for our Democrat friends!

CNN releases polling this morning that shows a solid majority (59%) oppose the health care reform pushed through Sunday night.  This is bad news for Democrats who are taking the credit (or blame) for the landmark bill’s passage.

The worst number in the polling results is the percentage of Americans that believe the amount they pay for medical care will increase:

“From what you know of that legislation, do you think the amount you pay for medical care would increase, decrease, or remain the same if it becomes law?”
Increase: 62%
Decrease: 16%
Remain the Same: 21%
Unsure: 1%

This could cripple the bill even more in the minds of voters, many who are still struggling to pay bills as the nation still faces double-digit unemployment.  The Democrats now face spending all summer trying to convince voters that the bill will not hurt them.  This data shows that to be an uphill battle:

“From what you know of that legislation, do you think you and your family would, in general, be better off, worse off or about the same if it becomes law?”
Better off: 19%
Worse off: 47%
About the Same: 33%

This keeps looking better for Republicans.  But, it is still imporant to understand that voters are angry at incumbents of both parties.  Candidates and incumbents shouldn’t stand behind a cookie cutter repeal statement put out by national party leaders (not that those statements are wrong).  Instead, they should stand on their own (even saying the same thing), putting distance between them and a city that is on every voters’ hit list.

Despite the economy and energy prices’ dramatic rise as a top issue among the electorate, voters indicate that the war in Iraq, illegal immigration, and continued protection from terrorism are also key concerns and will play a significant role in how they choose the next President of the United States.

The recently released AP/Yahoo News Poll demonstrates that voters are largely unsure which candidate can best fix the ailing economy (32% Obama - 28% McCain); however, they clearly believe that McCain is best equipped to deal with:

The situation in Iraq (39% McCain - 33% Obama)
Terrorism (44% McCain - 20% Obama)
Immigration (30% McCain - 24% Obama)

Clearly, voters trust McCain with overall security of the country and believe that he can reign-in the situation in Iraq.  The key for the McCain campaign now lies in proving that his experience can bring economic relief.  This is a far less strenuous task than Obama’s, who first has to prove that he is even trustworthy.  But, voters may have a hard time trusting in a candidate that is untested. 

Campaign media can do a lot, but building an alternate reality where Obama has actual leadership experience is not something I’ve ever seen political ads (even the best ads) do.