The debate is on! Politico and Drudge Report have reported that McCain will be at the debate this evening. The question becomes will the debate affect voters? Historically speaking, most debates do little to move the numbers either way, with the exception of 1960, 1976, 2000 and 2004. In those election cycles, the debates moved the numbers because either the elections were extremely tight to begin with or because the debates were very influential in public opinion.

However, none of the debates were the same week of a major national crisis with a contentious presidential election. No debates were the same week of one of the most risky campaign moves seen in presidential campaign history- McCain’s suspension.

An assortment of debate moments over the years, whether the elections were tight or not, have made an impression with Americans.

In 1960 Nixon looked sweaty, pasty (Nixon had requested no makeup before the debate- which was a very bad decision) and rigid compared to Kennedy. Radio audiences reported Nixon won the debate, but TV audiences gave it to Kennedy.

1980- Because Carter did not debate Reagan until there was less than one week before the Election, there is not a data that shows how the debate affected voters’ decisions. Reagan led Carter by 3 points the week prior to Eday. He then won by 10 points. Again, without data to show the debate moved public opinion, it did not help Carter. The debate footage shows Reagan at ease, confident and ready to be President. He did well with “Here you go again,� while shaking his head and smiling to the American people.

Reagan Debates

1992, President George H. W. Bush kept looking at his wrist watch.

2000, Al Gore…sighed. A lot.

Tonight, regardless of everything that has happened in Washington, McCain needs to make sure he watches his temper. Obama needs to be able to say what he means in a short amount of time and pay attention (he has been accused of staring into space while others speak). Watch to see Obama interrupt McCain to push his buttons and McCain to force Obama to his point.
After McCain’s campaign suspension and the failure to come to a consensus on a financial bailout plan, the stakes are extremely high for McCain. He put a lot of political collateral in on his suspension this week and it does not appear to go as planned. To make sure that he ends this week on a high note and to mitigate the potential for tracking numbers to dip again, he needs to have a stellar performance tonight.

Obama is in a great situation going into the debate. As long as he does not have any major gaffes and is able to provide substance in his answers, he could very well continue his trend and move undecideds on to his side.

At the highest rate so far, 53% of Americans rate the economy of poor. Gallup reports, “that it one point higher than we’ve seen on the current economy ever.� From their tracking, Obama has held a 3 point lead over John McCain. Obama’s numbers peaked over McCain last week when the Wall Street collapses began to hit the news and have faltered only slightly.

Now that John McCain has suspended his campaign to deal with the economic bailout plans, he may be able to sway public perception. This could be a game changer. The possibility exists that McCain comes off looking like a Maverick, not a politician playing games. Obama could lose trust if he is seen trying to dance around the issues and not help with the financial crisis. Good campaign move or not, more than half of Americans see our economy as poor. As the candidates strategize and campaign (or in the case of John McCain, show up at work and work on the bailout legislation), know that many pessimistic voters are watching how they handle the situation.

The tracking numbers for the next few days will be very interesting- whether or not there is a debate in Mississippi.