from the PRIsm Political Report:

AZ-3: Shadegg Retirement Changes Governor’s Race

Two years ago, Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ-3) surprised almost everyone in and out of Congress by announcing that he would not seek re-election in 2008.  An outpouring of support and his Republican congressional colleagues’ petition campaign convinced him to change his mind and run for one more term.  Yesterday, Mr. Shadegg announced that, in fact, this is his final term in the House and he will retire at the end of the current Congress. 

 

With a likely Republican congressional seat now wide open in the Valley of the Sun, GOP potential candidates in particular, are sizing up their next move.  A great deal of media speculation pertains to state Treasurer Dean Martin who just recently announced a Republican primary challenge to Gov. Jan Brewer.  Many believe he will now switch out of the gubernatorial race and immediately organize a new campaign for Congress.  Before being elected statewide, Martin represented a state Senate district wholly within Shadegg’s 3^rd CD.

 

The attention being paid to Martin may be misplaced, however.  In fact, the person more likely to swing out of the Governor’s race and into a federal campaign is actually Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker.  According to sources intimately familiar with the Arizona political landscape, Martin is likely to stay in the Governor’s race for several reasons.  First, he has spent his whole career in state politics and has little desire to come to Washington.  Second, the timing of the Shadegg announcement may be somewhat politically driven as it comes directly on the heels of Martin formally declaring for Governor.  The Congressman’s longtime Arizona chief of staff, Sean Noble, is a potential candidate to replace his current boss and would view Martin as his toughest competitor, thus the Treasurer running for Governor benefits Noble and the Shadegg organization.  Third, Martin is in the best position of any Republican to deny Brewer the Republican nomination - remember, she ascended to the office when Janet Napolitano became Homeland Security Secretary so she has yet to be elected in her own right - so he is unlikely to abandon a campaign that he can conceivably win.

 

The crowded Governor’s race is a problem for both current challengers, Martin and Parker, in addition to self-funder with low name ID and several other minor candidates.  Arizona has a late primary (August 31^st) and no run-off, so it behooves both of the major candidates to isolate Brewer as much as possible.  As the sitting Governor, a crowded field requiring only a plurality of the vote favors Brewer despite her woeful job approval ratings.  Therefore, tacking to the congressional race makes the most political sense for Parker, who would clearly be a strong candidate in such a field.

  

The 3^rd district is fully contained within Maricopa County and contains some of the north Phoenix suburbs as well as the cities of Paradise Valley, Carefree, and Cave Creek.  The district is reliably Republican.  Favorite son presidential candidate John McCain scored 57% against President Obama in 2008; George W. Bush captured 58 and 55%, respectively, in his two presidential campaigns.  The seat was drawn to be safely Republican, but demographic changes in the Phoenix area have made the region slightly more competitive.  Shadegg’s 2008 win percentage dropped to 54-42%, and was just below 60% in 2006.  Previously, his elections finished closer to the 65% mark.  He becomes the 25^th current House member, and 14^th Republican, not to seek re-election.  Attorney Jon Hulburd, who claims to have already raised $300,000 for the race, has the inside track to the Democratic nomination.