Barring an unforeseen circumstance of events in the final week leading up to Election Day, Republican Bob McDonnell will be elected the next Governor of Virginia.  As you can see from the trend line, McDonnell continues to climb and Deeds ballot test number appears to be flat in the low 40’s.  So long as the McDonnell campaign focuses on turnout in the final week, he appears to be headed to a clear victory, which will be a much needed pick-up for the Republicans.

The New Jersey race appears to be the wild card.  While at first glance the trend lines appear to favor incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, his re-election number have remained flat in the low 40’s.  This appears to be the result of Corzine’s heavy negative ad campaign he is waging against the Republican Chris Christie in the race.  While the Corzine campaign has been successful in dragging down Christie’s number to their level, Politico reports that the most recent numbers coming out of New Jersey favor Republican Chris Christie. 

National Democrats are looking closely at the New Jersey race as a blueprint as to how to beat Republican candidates in deep-blue states.  The theory: if the Democrat’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are upside down, as are Corzine’s in New Jersey, then a highly negative campaign against Republicans will inherently benefit the Democrats nominee.  If Christie pulls out the Governor’s race, then the Democrats will sense real trouble in the bluest of blue states.  The go negative-early-often-and-continuously strategy that Corzine has waged may have drug Christie down to his level seems to be working, but is it enough to be successful on Election Day?  The question will be answered in how many people turn out and vote for the more liberal of the three candidates, Independent candidate Chris Daggett, who theoretically should be siphoning off votes from Corzine.  Stay tuned.  This one will come down to the wire.

 

from the PRIsm Political Report:

Both the Washington Post, through the TNS firm of Horsham, PA, (10/4-7; 1,001 certain VA voters) and Mason-Dixon Polling (10/5-7; 625 certain VA voters), for the Richmond Times-Dispatch, conducted highly publicized polls of the upcoming Virginia Governor’s race last week, but the down ballot and issue results may provide us with the most interesting conclusions.  Basically, both polls confirm that Republican Bob McDonnell has a lead beyond the margin of error, and that a GOP sweep of the three statewide offices is likely.
 
Below are the ballot test responses:
 
                                      
Governor:                      Post                Mason-Dixon
 
Bob McDonnell (R)        53                         48
Creigh Deeds (D)           44                         40      

Lt. Governor:
 
Bill Bolling (R)                49                         44
Jody Wagner (D)           40                         31
 
Attorney General:
 
Ken Cuccinelli (R)          49                         37
Steve Shannon (D)        40                         30
 
The fundamental responses and the intensity indicators confirm the ballot test numbers, especially for McDonnell.  The other candidates have lower name ID, suggesting that a ticket sweep based upon the results of the top office, which normally occurs in Virginia elections because of the off-year turnout model, is likely.  The Post ran the more extensive interview schedule, thus providing us more clues into what could be the viewed as the opinions of the average Old Dominion voter as this gubernatorial election enters its final three weeks. 
 
In terms of intensity, both candidates score well in terms of enthusiastic support among their voters.  Eighty-five percent say they are very or fairly enthusiastic about voting for McDonnell, whereas 79% say the same about Deeds.  A stark difference, however, is present among those who are “very enthusiastic”.  Thirty-five percent of McDonnell’s supporters rate their preference of him in this manner, versus just 20% for Deeds.  This is highly significant as it relates to the all-important turnout factor.
 
McDonnell seems to have overcome the flap about his controversial social issues thesis, written more than 20 years ago when he was a graduate student.  Though people are more aware that he crafted the document according to the Post poll (55% registering familiarity with the thesis issue versus 44% in September), McDonnell seems to have fended off the brunt of the attack.  Though Deeds is viewed as more favorable to women’s issues by a 47-41% margin, his lead over McDonnell on the issue of abortion is only 44-42%.  Deeds is taking a huge hit, however, over the negative tone of his campaign.  The respondents say, by a 46-30% margin, that Deeds is running the more negative campaign. 
 
The negativity of the Deeds campaign is further confirmed in other campaign tone questions, thus giving us another clue regarding turnout motivation.  By a margin of 60-32%, the voters believe McDonnell has run a positive campaign.  Conversely, the same respondents, on a 37-56% count, say Deeds’ effort is negative.
 
Several factors confirm that the candidates’ ballot test margins are probably accurate.  In looking at the issues and demographics, though the Post only shows a one-point Democratic edge, 31-30%, in party ID among the respondents, the answers to the issue questions, overlaid with their opinions of state and national Democratic leaders, makes the macro numbers consistent and credible.
 
In terms of issues, McDonnell is viewed more favorably on the economy and jobs, transportation, the state budget, education, gun control, healthcare, and taxes.  Deeds has the advantage only on issues of special concern to women and abortion.  Thus, the Democrat needs to improve his standing in many critical issue areas in a very short period of time.
 
The poll gains further credibility when looking at the approval ratings for Gov. Tim Kaine, President Barack Obama, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.  Though one could argue that the Republican cell is over-sampled, the ratings for the Democratic leaders do reflect national trends.  Kaine has a surprisingly favorable 60:37% ratio, especially when compared to other polls; Obama registers 53:46%, while Pelosi scores only 38:58%.

We are officially past Labor Day, or as some political pundits put it, the “time in which voters pay attention.�  You will see increased campaign activity in each of these campaigns, therefore watching the numbers closely in the next month will give a snapshot of where the campaign is heading and how much traction the message is gaining with voters.

 

 

 

As you can see in Virginia, the Republican Bob McDonnell is trending in the right direction.  The Democrats have started to go negative on McDonnell in the last few weeks, but it isn’t hurting him (nor is it helping Deeds).  Watch to see if the Democrats continue down the same track, hoping their attacks will set in now that voters are paying attention, or if they attempt to change traffic with a different negative message. 

 

 

 

In New Jersey, Democrat Governor John Corzine’s strategy is clear: attack, attack, attack.  As you can see, the Republican candidate Chris Christie has lost a few points in the last 60 days; almost entirely based on the barrage of negative ads the Corzine campaign has been running.  The reason the Corzine campaign must go negative and stay negative through November: Corzine’s re-elect numbers aren’t moving.  He has been stuck at 40% all summer; therefore he has no choice but to attempt to drag down Chris Christie. 

Republican candidates for Governor in Virginia and New Jersey are reaping rewards for the national Democrats problems on the health care front. 

As you can see below, despite current Governor Jon Corzine’s spending spree, he continues to be stuck in the high 30’s, while Republican candidate Chris Christie has inched up from the mid-40’s to 51%.

As the trend line is steady in New Jersey, Virginia has seen a dramatic trend in favor of the Republican candidate for Governor Bob McDonnell.  In the same graph, Democrat candidate Creigh Deeds is steadily trending downwards.

While Election Day in New Jersey and Virginia is still 12 weeks away, the Republican candidates are trending in the right direction at the right time. 

This article was co-authored by Chris Wilson and Alex Brunk

Endorsements are a matter of some debate among most political operatives and pollsters.  Conventional wisdom is that they don’t matter much.  When they do matter, it’s because they run contrary to expectations.  A Democratic Party official endorsing a Democratic candidate is not news.

Colin Powell endorsing Barack Obama was the kind of “man bites dog� story that can make news and move votes.  A key theme of McCain’s campaign was leadership, his years of experience in the military and government, and the premise that Obama was too risky.  Colin Powell’s profile, not only as a Republican, but as a great leader/foreign policy expert made his endorsement significant.  It caused voters to question basic assumptions about the leadership skills of both candidates and the foreign policy implications associated with the McCain v Powell choice.

Such seems to be the case with the Washington Post’s endorsement of Creigh Deeds last week in the Democratic primary for Governor of Virginia.

Polls over the last month have consistently shown Former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe with a substantial lead for the Democratic nomination for Governor.  He had been dead even with Delegate Brian Moran for most of the first part of the year, with Creigh Deeds trailing by about ten points.  But all polling in the month of May showed McAuliffe breaking away and taking the lead.

But this week, two polls were released that shed some serious doubt on the prospect of a McAuliffe victory.  The first, from GQR for the Brian Moran campaign, shows Moran in the lead with 29%, with Deeds at 27% and McAuliffe at 26%.  Essentially a three way tie.  A Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll (conducted through IVR) shows Creigh Deeds taking the lead with 27% with McAuliffe at 24% and Moran at 22%.

According to the PPP survey, between May 21^st and June 2^nd Deeds went from 11% to 23% in the critical Northern Virginia counties, representing 30% of the Democratic primary vote.  The Washington Post endorsed Deeds on May 22nd.  Since none of the candidates had spent heavily on TV in the DC media market before this week, the WaPo endorsement seems the most likely candidate for Creigh Deeds’ sudden jump in support in northern Virginia.

Why did this happen?   Because much like Powell’s endorsement of Obama, the Washington Post endorsement of Deeds calls into question some assumptions voters may have made about the race.  One of these is that Terry McAuliffe was the candidate of the DC Democratic elite.  Many voters might have assumed that he would have the support of an inside-the-beltway entity like the Washington Post.  Not getting their nod calls this assumption into question.

Simultaneously, as the only candidate not from Northern Virginia, Deeds may not have been seriously considered by voters here until some external event (the Washington Post endorsement) caused them to take a second look.

An endorsement from the Washington Post thrusts Deeds right into the mix in Northern Virginia and gives voters there the opportunity/motivation to examine him as a legitimate choice.  Judging by the polling, a lot of voters seem to be liking what they see.  And it could provide a rare example of a newspaper endorsement making a major different in one of the highest profile campaigns in the country this year.

What this means for our candidates in primaries this year and next is that there is value in highly public endorsements that challenge conventional wisdom about them–or their opponent.  Finding these contrarian endorsements is a valuable earned media effort that can help change the paradigm of a race.