Barring an unforeseen circumstance of events in the final week leading up to Election Day, Republican Bob McDonnell will be elected the next Governor of Virginia.  As you can see from the trend line, McDonnell continues to climb and Deeds ballot test number appears to be flat in the low 40’s.  So long as the McDonnell campaign focuses on turnout in the final week, he appears to be headed to a clear victory, which will be a much needed pick-up for the Republicans.

The New Jersey race appears to be the wild card.  While at first glance the trend lines appear to favor incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, his re-election number have remained flat in the low 40’s.  This appears to be the result of Corzine’s heavy negative ad campaign he is waging against the Republican Chris Christie in the race.  While the Corzine campaign has been successful in dragging down Christie’s number to their level, Politico reports that the most recent numbers coming out of New Jersey favor Republican Chris Christie. 

National Democrats are looking closely at the New Jersey race as a blueprint as to how to beat Republican candidates in deep-blue states.  The theory: if the Democrat’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are upside down, as are Corzine’s in New Jersey, then a highly negative campaign against Republicans will inherently benefit the Democrats nominee.  If Christie pulls out the Governor’s race, then the Democrats will sense real trouble in the bluest of blue states.  The go negative-early-often-and-continuously strategy that Corzine has waged may have drug Christie down to his level seems to be working, but is it enough to be successful on Election Day?  The question will be answered in how many people turn out and vote for the more liberal of the three candidates, Independent candidate Chris Daggett, who theoretically should be siphoning off votes from Corzine.  Stay tuned.  This one will come down to the wire.

 

In the Garden State, Republican challenger Chris Christie leads incumbent Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine 48% to 41% according to the latest independent numbers from Rasmussen, just one point closer than the 8-point lead Christie enjoyed in surveys taken earlier this month and late-August.   http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2009/new_jersey/election_2009_new_jersey_governor

 

As Rasmussen points out, no Republican has won statewide in New Jersey in more than a decade.  That fact alone has left pundits asking the question: is this contest a harbinger of what’s to come in 2010?  Leading election prognosticators such as Charlie Cook pick double-digit losses for congressional Democrats, but as yet, few are speculating about an outright party-switch in the US House next year.

 

Still, early signs show a revitalized GOP campaigning strong in the Virginia governor’s race as well as in New Jersey, and eyes are again looking at the possibility of a US Senate vacancy in West Virginia, should Robert Byrd step down because of health reasons (putting the D’s filibuster-proof majority in very real jeopardy).

 

With Congress and the Obama administration faltering on health care, and the promised economic recovery yet to materialize for the growing millions of out-of-work voters, next year looks to be a difficult year for incumbents of all shapes and sizes (the majority of whom happen to be Democrats in charge).

 

Noteworthy: Republicans now have a 4-point edge in the generic ballot: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

We are officially past Labor Day, or as some political pundits put it, the “time in which voters pay attention.�  You will see increased campaign activity in each of these campaigns, therefore watching the numbers closely in the next month will give a snapshot of where the campaign is heading and how much traction the message is gaining with voters.

 

 

 

As you can see in Virginia, the Republican Bob McDonnell is trending in the right direction.  The Democrats have started to go negative on McDonnell in the last few weeks, but it isn’t hurting him (nor is it helping Deeds).  Watch to see if the Democrats continue down the same track, hoping their attacks will set in now that voters are paying attention, or if they attempt to change traffic with a different negative message. 

 

 

 

In New Jersey, Democrat Governor John Corzine’s strategy is clear: attack, attack, attack.  As you can see, the Republican candidate Chris Christie has lost a few points in the last 60 days; almost entirely based on the barrage of negative ads the Corzine campaign has been running.  The reason the Corzine campaign must go negative and stay negative through November: Corzine’s re-elect numbers aren’t moving.  He has been stuck at 40% all summer; therefore he has no choice but to attempt to drag down Chris Christie. 

Republican candidates for Governor in Virginia and New Jersey are reaping rewards for the national Democrats problems on the health care front. 

As you can see below, despite current Governor Jon Corzine’s spending spree, he continues to be stuck in the high 30’s, while Republican candidate Chris Christie has inched up from the mid-40’s to 51%.

As the trend line is steady in New Jersey, Virginia has seen a dramatic trend in favor of the Republican candidate for Governor Bob McDonnell.  In the same graph, Democrat candidate Creigh Deeds is steadily trending downwards.

While Election Day in New Jersey and Virginia is still 12 weeks away, the Republican candidates are trending in the right direction at the right time.