WRS is happy to post a guest post by Field Strategist Amelia T. Chasse.

Last week, Sen. Lindsey Graham predicted that the Tea Party movement would “die out� in the near future. Graham is probably keeping his fingers crossed that his prediction becomes reality before his 2012 re-election campaign, as the strength of Tea Party is creating difficulties for incumbents and political insiders like the South Carolina Senator. Take Graham’s close friend and Senate ally, John McCain, for example. Two years ago, the perennially popular Arizona Senator was the Republican nominee for President. Now, McCain is facing a difficult primary challenge in the form of Tea Party-backed J.D. Hayworth, who as been able to energize the state’s increasingly conservative base and successfully portray McCain as a spineless moderate.

Voters won’t decide McCain’s fate until August 24th, but the 2010 primary season has already seen its share of upset losses for political insiders. In April, Florida Governor Charlie Crist announced his withdrawal from the state’s Republican Senate primary to run as an Independent. The moderate Governor faced an almost certain loss to Tea Party-backed Marco Rubio, so he chose to opt out and take his chances as a third party candidate rather than suffer a humiliating primary defeat. The trend continued in the Kentucky Senate primary in May with activist Rand Paul’s insurgent victory over Secretary of State Trey Grayson.

Those who attributed Paul’s victory to a famous father and a conservative electorate got a wake up call on June 8th, when California voters nominated businesswomen Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman over former Congressman Tom Campbell and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner in the respective Senate and Gubernatorial primaries. The same day, Nevada and Maine, two states generally rife with moderate Republicans, both nominated Tea Partiers in key primaries contrary to the predictions of the most recent polls. In Nevada, activist Sharron Angle beat former State GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden to take on Sen. Harry Reid in November, and small town Mayor Paul LePage’s insurgent, below-the-radar campaign came out on top against well-known state Senator Peter Mills and two millionaire self-funders in the Pine Tree State’s gubernatorial primary.

The next major test of this emerging pattern could be the August 10th Colorado Senate primary, where activist Ken Buck seems poised to beat former Governor Jane Norton; a recent Survey USA poll has him up by sixteen points.

Many, like Sen. Graham, chalk up the strength of the Tea Party to the anger-fueled “throw the bums out� mentality that is gripping the GOP electorate in the wake of the Obama administration’s liberal policy initiatives. While that dynamic certainly plays a major role, it does not account for the fact that insiders aren’t the only candidates being defeated en masse by Tea Partiers. Businessmen candidates, whom many analysts predicted would be strong in 2010 due to the troubled economy, are also falling short when faced with conservative activist opponents. Several of the contests mentioned above included at least one competitive candidate running on private-sector business credentials. Las Vegas businessman Danny Tarkanian finished in third place in Nevada, and Maine’s LePage also defeated well-funded businessmen Les Otten and Bruce Poliquin.

California is an interesting exception, with two pragmatic former CEOs emerging as the GOP nominees for Senate and Governor. Whitman did not have a Tea Party challenger in her race, but Fiorina took on activist Chuck DeVore, who finished third. A possible explanation is that, historically, only moderate Republicans have been able to get elected in the Golden State, leading GOP voters to be more strategic about their choices. Additionally, California’s notoriously expensive media market requires candidates to be extremely well-funded to be competitive, and both Fiorina and Whitman were able to pour millions of their own money into their primary bids, which their competitors could not match.

The lesson to be drawn from California is that the Tea Party draws its strength from right-wing grassroots activism and candidates who excel at retail politics, and thus is at its least effective in states that trend moderate and rely heavily on the wholesale politics of paid media. However, even in those states, the electorate is still choosing political outsiders.

With the 2010 election season about to go into full swing, these primary races provide an opportunity to take the temperature of likely voters, which aids political analysts in predicting the outcome of the races ahead, and candidates in refining their messages to appeal to the electorate. At the very least, the GOP primaries to date have made it clear that the Tea Party will play a major role in this election cycle, so pundits may want to revise their earlier assessments about the legitimacy and effectiveness of the movement, and incumbents and insider candidates may want to reconsider running on past experience, and pivot to talk about what they will do for the future.

Amelia Chasse can be reached at atchasse@gmail.com.

from the PRIsm political report:

Crist, Rubio Tied at 43%

 

A stunning new Rasmussen Reports (RR) poll (12/14; 413 likely FL Republican voters) propels upstart former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, the darling of the Florida conservative movement, into a dead heat with incumbent Governor Charlie Crist as the two vie to become the Republican nominee for the state’s open US Senate seat. 

 

Last May, the first primary poll pegged the Governor to a huge 53-18% advantage (Ron Sachs Communications; released 5/19/09) among Republicans, but Crist’s lead has been steadily diminishing ever since reaching that apparent apex.  The most recent Rasmussen poll (10/19) showed his 35 point lead decreasing to fourteen.  While the 413 respondent RR sample size is certainly low, there can be no doubt that all of the campaign’s upward momentum is clearly on Rubio’s side.  The former legislator has strategically worked the Republican county caucuses to uplift his campaign and attract activist and media attention, appearing at a series of the local meetings and racking up a dozen huge (63-89%) straw poll victories against the sitting GOP Governor. 

 

Marco Rubio, 38, was born in Miami of Cuban parents who fled the Castro regime and escaped to Florida.  He was elected to the legislature in 2000 and served as Majority Whip, Majority Leader, and Speaker in his eight year legislative career.  Florida election law limits service in the state House to four consecutive two-year terms. 

 

While Majority Leader, Rubio traveled the state soliciting ideas for legislative and societal changes.  He published what he believed were the best such thoughts into a publication entitled “100 Innovative Ideas for Florida’s Future”.  When he became Speaker, all one-hundred suggestions were crafted into legislation and 57 became law.  Some of the subject areas related to energy efficient buildings, striking back against gangs and sexual predators, and helping businesses obtain healthcare coverage for their employees. 

 

In what could be interpreted as a further negative for Crist even while appearing to be potentially positive, the Governor’s own popularity ratings are still relatively decent. Therefore, Rubio tying Crist is of even greater significance because the challenger’s support is not simply a response to ultra-negative feelings about the Governor. In this current Rasmussen poll, Crist’s personal favorability index is 61:38% and his job approval is 56:43%.  These numbers do show weakness because the sampling universe is uniformly Republican, but the data is still considerably more positive than negative, nonetheless.

 

A final point in Rubio’s favor is that he is now tied with the universally-known Crist even though 21% of the Republican electorate doesn’t know enough about him to form an opinion.  His overall personal rating of 64:15% is extremely good.  Additionally, the fact that only 52% of the self-identified conservatives in this cell sample are supporting Rubio is an indication that he possesses room to grow.

 

The Governor’s best asset is his ability to obtain campaign resources.  According to the last public financial disclosure filing, Crist raised just under $7 million compared to Rubio’s $1.6 million.  The challenger’s increased notoriety will undoubtedly allow him to close the money gap, but it is unlikely that he will ever be able to top the Governor’s war chest. 

 

This campaign will continue for quite some time.  The Florida primary is not until August 24, so much is yet to happen.  The winner will likely face Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL-17), who has formulated himself into the consensus Democratic candidate.  He had raised almost $4 million at the end of September and will be formidable in the general election.

 

Clearly, this campaign is now turning into one of the most interesting in the country, and it’s only just beginning.