It’s a sign of just how little the Democrats understand the mood of the voters that their defense against accusation like this isn’t “we would never do that, if the voters speak, they speak” but instead “don’t worry, even though we’ll probably try, we can’t get anything through the Senate.” That kind of cynical calculation sums up why voters have lost trust in this Administration in record time.
The big worries shouldn’t be cap-and-trade and card check. The big worry is that the Democrats could use a lame-duck session to pass a “deficit reduction” bill that included massive tax increases and some token spending cuts.
This would let Democrats claim that they have “heard what the American people were saying” while still driving forward their tax-and-spend agenda. And it would take some of the impetus out of Republican attempts to roll back the massive expansion of government in the next Congress because Democrats could argue that they had already addressed the deficit.
Combining this kind of bill with the Democrats plans to let the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts expire would be a massive, unprecedented increase in the tax burden on American families and would fundamentally transform our economy. In effect, it’s the other half of the Obama agenda that started with massive new spending programs and government expansion into new sectors of the economy.
There should be no question that the Democrats can probably get all of their Senators behind this and add at least some of the moderate Northeastern Republicans plus people like Bob Bennett in Utah who will see it as one last “good government” action where he knows better than the voters in his state what is right.
WRS is happy to post a guest post by Field Strategist Amelia T. Chasse.
Advancing events is one of the few remaining vestiges of old-school style campaigning. Campaign staffers and volunteers get the chance to engage in on-the-ground, guerilla warfare-style tactics, often arriving at event venues at absurd hours to make sure that your candidate is best represented to the attendees. To ensure maximum effectiveness (and minimum hiccups) in your advance operation, a few pointers:
• There’s no such thing as too early.
Being the first on the scene, even if it is just one volunteer there to reserve a table, accomplishes three key goals: (1) ensuring that your campaign has the best placement, (2) intimidating the other campaigns and throwing them off their game, and (3) giving attendees the impression that your campaign, and by extension your candidate, is polished, professional, and ready to win.
• All armies must have a general.
So your team is on the scene and ready to go. Now what? When there are multiple people advancing, it is critical to have a designated leader. This leader is the person with the most experience and authority, whether it be a member of your field staff or an experienced volunteer. Aside from directing other team members and ensuring that everything gets done, the advance lead is responsible for making the on-the-fly decisions that are so often required in these situations, and acting as the point of contact with the traveling staff.
• Be the “home team.”
A strong advance presence is as much for the candidate as it is for the event attendees. You want your candidate to feel like the star player for the home team, not a challenger from away. This is true for all candidates, even those running as “outsiders”; portraying the candidate as the outsider or underdog is a job for the communications team, not the ground operation. A candidate who walks into an event and sees a sloppy advance presence from his team, especially at events where other campaigns are present to serve as a point of comparison, is often left to believe that he or she has a lazy staff and unenthused volunteers. Not the best mindset for a successful performance at the event.
• Use your eyes and ears on the ground to troubleshoot.
Think of your advance staff/volunteers as special forces sent into hostile territory to conduct reconnaissance before a military operation. They are on the scene early, and are able to convey key information about the event to the candidate and traveling staff, such as any unexpected VIPs or other candidates in attendance, issues with the venue, or changes to the format.
• When the going gets tough, the tough get creative.
Even if a campaign follows all of the above advice, there will still be times where directions are wrong or someone forgets to grab the box of collateral. In instances where your advance team finds itself late on the scene or unprepared, it can be a mistake to continue to plow ahead with the usual game plan; nothing looks worse than attendees (or your candidate) walking into an event and seeing your team struggling to hang signs. These changes can be as simple as having staff or volunteers hand out palm cards at the doors as attendees enter instead of rushing to place them on each seat. If time allows, dispatch someone to pick up forgotten collateral (or a cheap and available substitute like small American flags) to pass out out as attendees leave.
• Relieve and reward volunteers.
A good advance volunteer is worth his or her weight in gold. They are willing to perform a task that often requires getting up very early and tends to involve a lot of “hurry up and wait”-ing. Once the event is underway, encourage volunteers to step out for coffee or water, and make sure they get a big “thank you” from the candidate.
A well-planned advance operation ensures that, even within the chaotic environment that can be endemic of the campaign trail, your campaign is never in chaos. Campaigning “on the road” is a lot tougher than it looks and requires many moving parts working together. If done right, it is a powerful way for your candidate to apppeal directly to voters, and score some earned media to boot. Conversely, a poorly planned and executed advance presence presents your candidate in the worst possible light, and leaves voters attending the event wondering why, if your candidate can’t seem to run a campaign, should they consider entrusting him or her with elected office?
Amelia Chasse can be reached at atchasse@gmail.com.
Recently released polling data indicates that Obama may no longer be helpful to Democratic candidates. Sure he can still raise money, but President Obama is currently holding net negative ratings for a number of major issues facing candidates on the campaign trail:
Obama handling Health Care
45 Favorable - 50 Unfavorable (was 49 fav - 49 unfav in June)
Obama handling Federal Budget Deficit
40 Favorable - 56 Unfavorable (largely unchanged from June)
Obama handling Regulation of Financial Industry
44 Favorable - 50 Unfavorable (was 48 fav - 48 unfav in April)
Those numbers aren’t great for the guy who is meant to give gravitas to candidates about key issues. Furthermore, overall confidence in Obama is on the decline:
Confidence in Obama
43 Confident - 57 Not Confident (was 47 confident - 53 not confident in January)
The bottomline is that Obama can still raise money for Democratic candidates, but will have a hard time convincing the same “wave” voters that elected him to show up for his comrades. This takes away the Democrat’s last weapon (positive power of a popular President).
Look for Democratic candidates in traditionally Republican districts to distance themselves and even refuse a visit from Obama in their districts. The bad news just keeps on coming for our Democrat friends!
July 4 is possibly the busiest day for a campaign other than Election Day. It starts with serving pancakes at the Rotary or firemen’s breakfast, then on to walk parade after parade and finally working the crowd at the fireworks display at dusk. It’s exhausting but worth it.
Participating in as much as you can on July 4 can not only boost awareness of your candidate and campaign, it can also grow volunteer and supporter rolls. And with little more than stickers, volunteers and a well executed plan, your candidate can create the perception that he or she is a front-runner.
As with any campaign strategy, every region and race requires a different July 4 approach. Beyond all else, you need to be creative and consider some of these dos and don’ts for the parade:
Don’t let the candidate walk or ride the parade route just waving.
Parades offer an opportunity for voters to physically interact with the candidate and campaign. Allowing your candidate to walk the center line or wave from a convertible prevents voters from “touching and feeling” your candidate. This also creates the impression that your candidate or campaign is better than the voter, who likely arrived two hours before the parade to grab the “perfect” spot and is sweating in the hot sun.
Do hand out something.
Handing out materials allows your volunteers and candidate to get close to voters, putting something in their hands. This also gives the campaign an opportunity to pass along things that are emblazoned with the campaign logo, web address and more.
Don’t hand our candy, do use flags.
Everyone will be handing out candy. It’s cheap, but strategically it’s pointless because only the kids are interested and it has no take-away value. Instead, passing out little American flags on a stick will allow the candidate and volunteers to interact with children and adults. Everyone wants a flag and you can attach a sticker with the campaign logo and web address to the other end of the stick.
Do work the parade route beforehand. Contrary to popular belief, the most important part of the parade is before the first float rolls down the route. Deploy volunteers with bottled water, lapel stickers, palm cards, balloons with the campaign logo (or stickers), voter registration cards and volunteer- or supporter-signup sheets. All of those stickers and balloons with the campaign logo can create the perception that everyone is supporting you. It’s a powerful sign, especially since late and swing voters support who they perceive to be leading the race.
Don’t pass up a parade or event if they occur at the same time.
While the candidate can only be in one place at a time, the campaign should plan to be present at as many events in the district or state as possible. Most parade participants won’t even know that they didn’t see the candidate.
Do recruit and train volunteers.
As with all campaign operations, success is largely dependent on volunteers who have been given good directions. I have found that gathering the night before at a pre-parade launch party is a good way to hand out materials and cover specifics before the events start.
Finally, don’t forget to have fun.
July 4 will be a long, hard (and hot) day, and if your candidate and volunteers are miserable it will show. Make sure there are plenty of perks (and water) associated with volunteering for parade detail. Never forget to recognize and reward volunteers. The campaign’s success rides on their shoulders, especially on July 4.
WRS is happy to post a guest piece by Field Strategist Amelia T. Chasse.
Sharron Angle’s surprising but decisive win in the Nevada Senate primary has given veteran Senator Harry Reid an opponent who is his antithesis; a brash, fiery outsider competing with the ultimate insider for a vulnerable Senate seat in a critical midterm election. In order to pull off a victory against the entrenched Senate Majority Leader, Angle must quickly transition from the small-time retail campaigning that made her a State Assemblywoman into building the organized statewide campaign infrastructure that will make her a Senator. A few pointers:
1. Run against Reid, not Obama.
In states with relatively popular Democratic incumbents, Republican candidates would do well to tie their opponents to an increasingly unpopular President. This is not the case in Nevada. While Obama’s approval rating is at 45-50% according to most polls, Reid’s hovers around an anemic 35%, making him significantly less popular than the President. Angle needs to focus the campaign on Reid, and avoid engaging Obama if he shows up to stump for the Senator. Approval numbers for Congress as a whole are even lower than Reid’s, having recently dipped under 20%, so all attempts should be made to tie Reid to Nancy Pelosi and his other colleagues in the increasingly unpopular legislative body.
2. Run a tight ship.
Angle already has the support of the activists, which is great for building community organizations and recruiting volunteers. This type of support can be powerful when harnessed, and in turn, can become a liability if allowed to run wild. To run a successful general election campaign against an entrenched incumbent, Angle must bring in professional campaign staff and consultants, and do so quickly, in order to whip her very informal organization into the focused, disciplined campaign she will need to win. A campaign with a cohesive strategy and a solid infrastructure will be able to direct and manage Angle’s strong grassroots support, and convert it into votes on Election Day.
3. Message, message, message.
Angle will be the target of a constant barrage of attacks from Reid, high-profile surrogates, and Democrat special interest groups. Angle’s campaign must have impeccable message discipline when responding to these attacks in order to avoid being backed into a corner and looking inconsistent and amateurish. This requires a defined message, a strong communications team, and a rapid-response operation to rival Clinton’s famous 1992 “war room.” It also requires the candidate herself to be as disciplined and on-message as her campaign.
4. Use the enthusiasm gap.
According to a recent Gallup poll, enthusiasm levels among GOP voters are the highest they have been in decades, even higher than they were leading up to the 1994 Republican Revolution. There is also a 15-point enthusiasm gap between the two parties, with 59% of Republicans and only 44% of Democrats describing themselves as “more enthusiastic than usual” at the prospect of voting in the upcoming election. Nevada’s electorate is composed of 43% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and about 20% Independents. However, following the 2006 midterm election, the number of registered voters in each party was about equal, so it is likely that a statistically significant percentage of registered Democrats are so-called “Obama Democrats” that are less likely to vote in a midterm election. This means that a strong GOTV operation alone could carry Angle to victory.
5. Build out, not up.
Angle doesn’t need to worry about energizing the base, so however tempting it may be to revel in the adoration of thousands of hard-core supporters, it is essential she focus on coalition-building. Angle has voter enthusiasm and momentum on her side, but Reid is certain to have a strong turnout operation of his own. To ensure victory, Angle needs to have better numbers as well as a better operation heading into Election Day. Fortunately, Reid’s low approval numbers indicate that a significant amount of Independents and Democrats are disenchanted with their Senator. The Angle campaign needs to devote a significant amount of its energy and resources to reaching out to these Independents and soft Democrats, perhaps by garnering a few key bipartisan endorsements and emphasizing non-controversial policy proposals. If Angle is able to run an inclusive campaign focused on kitchen table issues that effect all Nevadans, it will pay off in November.
What effect will the passage of the health care bill have on the 2010 election? Depends on how you see it.
Going into the vote, 37% thought the reform would hurt while a statistically similar number thought it would help (39%). These two populations might be equally disappointed.
First, many of reforms and programs the legislation enacts take up to four years to implement. That means that those eagerly awaiting the change could get to November thinking that the great health care reform is another governmental hoax - all talk, no action. This could further depress the Democratic base vote.
Next, those believing the health care reform presents a slipper slope to fully socialized medicine might also be disappointed by the delayed implementation. The question is whether their tempers cool over the summer.
Finally, both populations are angry at congress and carry a significant anti-incumbent sentiment. Some feel that the change they voted for they didn’t get, while others are afraid the change that is occurring is a change they don’t want. In the end, we will have to wait until August or September to realize from the polling what effect last night’s historic vote will have on the likely electorate.
An interesting strategy deployed by the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee), the organization charged with protecting Democratic Congressional seats, tries to revive the “party of no” attack on Republican incumbents using radio ads and robocalls. The Democrats are clearly scrambling to develop a strategy that will turn-back public anger.
Text from Robocall against Florida Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart (R):
Remember? We said it can’t happen again. But did you know Congressman [Mario] Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) voted to let Wall Street continue the same risky practices that crippled retirement accounts and cost taxpayers $700 billion, including unchecked bonuses and salaries for executives. Maybe the $81,204 he got from financial special interests mattered more than taxpayers.
According to the Politico - “A spokesman for the DCCC, Ryan Rudominer, said his committee’s message is not so much about Republican inertia as about the GOP siding with the very banks and financial institutions that many Americans blame for tanking the economy last fall.”
But, the article also highlights brutally honest thoughts from a top Democratic pollster:
“People are angry and what Democrats are trying to do is channel that anger,” said Democratic pollster Doug Schoen. “You’ve got to displace the anger onto the Republicans. If they can do that, Democrats have some hope but right now things are looking increasingly bleak every day.”
Schoen was blunt about the challenge Democrats are facing next fall. “The Democrats are trying to stem the bleeding,” the former pollster for President Bill Clinton said. “Obama’s in a free fall and, unless they stem the bleeding, they’re going to face unprecedented losses.”
Wow - harsh words from a Democratic pollster that confirms what we have been seeing nationwide. Even in deep-blue districts, voters are angry at Democrats and I doubt that this attack will move the needle. Take this data from a survey we conducted in November for Republican Congressional candidate Bill Hudak who is running against a seven-term Democrat in the very blue state of Massachusetts:
·In the 6th congressional district, which Barack Obama won 58% to 41% in 2008, a generic Democrat leads a generic Republican today by only 5 points, 43% to 38%.
·While voters approve of Barack Obama’s performance 57% to 40%, they disapprove of Congress 59% to 35%.57% of voters have an unfavorable view of Nancy Pelosi, while 37% view her favorably.
·A plurality (49%) of voters oppose the healthcare reform legislation currently being debated in congress, while 45% support it.68% of voters say they are very concerned about the growing national debt.
·Congressman Tierney’s “hard reelect” is at only 32%, lower than would be expected for a seven-term incumbent in a heavily Democratic district.
·Despite being nearly totally unknown at this stage of the campaign, Republican Bill Hudak earns 31% against Congressman John Tierney in a test ballot.Tierney wins 53%.Tierney won reelection in 2008 with more than 70% of the vote; the current political environment has narrowed the playing field.
Clearly, Republicans are gaining ground on Democrats in all districts. The bottom-line is that voters are pissed-off and ready for change. Of course, this anti-incumbent effect is not isolated to Democrats. But, the Democrats are catching the majority of the blame since they control both Congress and the White House.
A new study out shows that a solid majority (77%) of seniors (65+) online say they shop, read news, manage their finances, and even play free games on the internet. This is the highest percentage among any age group!
The reserach found that older Americans - including both Seniors (also referred to as “Matures”) and the younger Baby Boomer cohort - have overwhelmingly made the internet an integral part of their everyday lives and often rival younger generations in online activities.
The study finds that seniors may lag behind younger generations in adapting to new technology (texting, social networking, etc), but this mature population is becoming more dependent upon the web for information. Seniors also happen to be the largest voting bloc in most key Congressional districts across the country.
This highlights the importance of a strong web strategy for campaigns that includes easy-to-navigate pages for the online senior population that may not be into all the bells and whistles. The single most important aspect for any campaign website is its ability to convey information clearly and effectively.
One of the time-honored tricks of political professionals is “leaking” information to the press. Many unnamed sources of certain high-level campaigns have used this method to position their campaign strategy in a positive light to a targeted audience, or get information out on their opposition. More commonly “leaking” is used on your political opponents through an unnamed or independent source to shed light on the flaws of your opposition.Â
This takes us to the question of leaking internal campaign strategy: good idea or bad?  Yesterday Politico did a piece on how Sen. Reid intends to “vaporize” his Republican opponent(s). It’s no secret that Reid’s approval ratings are upside-down and the same survey has him losing outside the margin of error to every GOPer tested. The Politico piece goes on to show how, per the campaign strategy of New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, hitting hard, fast and furious can drive up the negative ratings on the opposition and stymie any support for the Republican candidate, allowing Reid to define the eventual Republican to the public before that candidate can define one’s self. While the strategy may be a sound one, the “leaking” of the strategy may be his downfall.
Reporters go to many means to deliver information from various sources, as that is their job. But the “leaker” inside Reid’s camp just gave away the blueprint to how the campaign plans to attack his Republican opponents. As a Republican, I thank the Reid team for delivering us their internal strategy.Â
As a political strategist, I believe the strategic decisions of the campaign team need to stay internal. You gain nothing by ”leaking” your campaign’s course of action. The job of the campaign team is to put out the best information to the public in the many arenas of paid and earned media. Crafting the various messages, positive and negative, takes time, but pushing out the information in this day-in-age can be rapid. It’s the campaign’s job to stay on message, work within the plan and deliver the messages timely and effectively; not to leak the strategy.
The Principals at WRS have consulted to influential associations, foreign governments,
political leaders, and over 100 of the current Fortune 500 corporations.
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