An interesting strategy deployed by the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee), the organization charged with protecting Democratic Congressional seats, tries to revive the “party of no” attack on Republican incumbents using radio ads and robocalls.  The Democrats are clearly scrambling to develop a strategy that will turn-back public anger.

Text from Robocall against Florida Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart (R):

Remember? We said it can’t happen again. But did you know Congressman [Mario] Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) voted to let Wall Street continue the same risky practices that crippled retirement accounts and cost taxpayers $700 billion, including unchecked bonuses and salaries for executives. Maybe the $81,204 he got from financial special interests mattered more than taxpayers.

According to the Politico - “A spokesman for the DCCC, Ryan Rudominer, said his committee’s message is not so much about Republican inertia as about the GOP siding with the very banks and financial institutions that many Americans blame for tanking the economy last fall.”

But, the article also highlights brutally honest thoughts from a top Democratic pollster:

“People are angry and what Democrats are trying to do is channel that anger,� said Democratic pollster Doug Schoen. “You’ve got to displace the anger onto the Republicans. If they can do that, Democrats have some hope but right now things are looking increasingly bleak every day.�

Schoen was blunt about the challenge Democrats are facing next fall. “The Democrats are trying to stem the bleeding,� the former pollster for President Bill Clinton said. “Obama’s in a free fall and, unless they stem the bleeding, they’re going to face unprecedented losses.�

Wow - harsh words from a Democratic pollster that confirms what we have been seeing nationwide.  Even in deep-blue districts, voters are angry at Democrats and I doubt that this attack will move the needle.  Take this data from a survey we conducted in November for Republican Congressional candidate Bill Hudak who is running against a seven-term Democrat in the very blue state of Massachusetts:

· In the 6^th congressional district, which Barack Obama won 58% to 41% in 2008, a generic Democrat leads a generic Republican today by only 5 points, 43% to 38%.

· While voters approve of Barack Obama’s performance 57% to 40%, they disapprove of Congress 59% to 35%. 57% of voters have an unfavorable view of Nancy Pelosi, while 37% view her favorably.

· A plurality (49%) of voters oppose the healthcare reform legislation currently being debated in congress, while 45% support it. 68% of voters say they are very concerned about the growing national debt.

· Congressman Tierney’s “hard reelect� is at only 32%, lower than would be expected for a seven-term incumbent in a heavily Democratic district.

· Despite being nearly totally unknown at this stage of the campaign, Republican Bill Hudak earns 31% against Congressman John Tierney in a test ballot. Tierney wins 53%. Tierney won reelection in 2008 with more than 70% of the vote; the current political environment has narrowed the playing field.

Clearly, Republicans are gaining ground on Democrats in all districts.  The bottom-line is that voters are pissed-off and ready for change.  Of course, this anti-incumbent effect is not isolated to Democrats.  But, the Democrats are catching the majority of the blame since they control both Congress and the White House.

A new study out shows that a solid majority (77%) of seniors (65+) online say they shop, read news, manage their finances, and even play free games on the internet.  This is the highest percentage among any age group!

The reserach found that older Americans - including both Seniors (also referred to as “Matures�) and the younger Baby Boomer cohort - have overwhelmingly made the internet an integral part of their everyday lives and often rival younger generations in online activities.

The study finds that seniors may lag behind younger generations in adapting to new technology (texting, social networking, etc), but this mature population is becoming more dependent upon the web for information.  Seniors also happen to be the largest voting bloc in most key Congressional districts across the country.

This highlights the importance of a strong web strategy for campaigns that includes easy-to-navigate pages for the online senior population that may not be into all the bells and whistles.  The single most important aspect for any campaign website is its ability to convey information clearly and effectively.

One of the time-honored tricks of political professionals is “leaking” information to the press.  Many unnamed sources of certain high-level campaigns have used this method to position their campaign strategy in a positive light to a targeted audience, or get information out on their opposition.  More commonly “leaking” is used on your political opponents through an unnamed or independent source to shed light on the flaws of your opposition. 

This takes us to the question of leaking internal campaign strategy: good idea or bad?  Yesterday Politico did a piece on how Sen. Reid intends to “vaporize” his Republican opponent(s).  It’s no secret that Reid’s approval ratings are upside-down and the same survey has him losing outside the margin of error to every GOPer tested.  The Politico piece goes on to show how, per the campaign strategy of New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine, hitting hard, fast and furious can drive up the negative ratings on the opposition and stymie any support for the Republican candidate, allowing Reid to define the eventual Republican to the public before that candidate can define one’s self.  While the strategy may be a sound one, the “leaking” of the strategy may be his downfall.

Reporters go to many means to deliver information from various sources, as that is their job.  But the “leaker” inside Reid’s camp just gave away the blueprint to how the campaign plans to attack his Republican opponents.  As a Republican, I thank the Reid team for delivering us their internal strategy. 

As a political strategist, I believe the strategic decisions of the campaign team need to stay internal.  You gain nothing by ”leaking” your campaign’s course of action. The job of the campaign team is to put out the best information to the public in the many arenas of paid and earned media.  Crafting the various messages, positive and negative, takes time, but pushing out the information in this day-in-age can be rapid.  It’s the campaign’s job to stay on message, work within the plan and deliver the messages timely and effectively; not to leak the strategy.

Check out Tyler Harber (@tharber)’s new post about campaign staffing strategies on Politics Magazine’s Campaign Insider Blog.

Check out Tyler Harber’s newest post on Politics Magazines’ Campaign Insider Blog.

 

Before Republicans start rejoicing about a political environment that favors them in 2010, they should consider that their incumbents aren’t immune from the growing anti-incumbent sentiment.  Voters are certainly upset about government spending.  That can be interpreted as a growing distaste for cap and trade, Obama’s health care reform, and even the stimulus.  But, when voters are mad with their government, they have a tendency to blame all incumbents - not just Democrats.

Republicans must develop strategies that distance themselves from the aspects that voters are most upset about - spending.  However, longtime Republican incumbents should beware of setting themselves up for a hypocrisy charge.  Every vote for earmarks and bizarre spending bills can prevent the Republican from making strong arguments against Democratic opponents without being hit for doing the same.

Likewise, Republican challengers should be prepared to criticize both parties for the problems we are facing now.

Check out Tyler Harber’s latest post at Politics Magazine’s Campaign Insider Blog about how Astroturfing is actually just good campaign tactics.

Astroturfing has quickly become a four-letter word used synonymously with cheating by creating a false perception. Accusations of astroturfing find their way into the news (especially here in D.C.) on a regular basis. However, if you examine the strategy and effect of astroturfing, you’ll quickly realize that it is actually just good campaigning and has been used by candidates and organizations for decades to grow actual bases of support.

Astroturfing is generally defined as the use of various tactics to create the perception of a grassroots movement or opinion. Tactics include pre-written letters to the editor, distance-signed direct mail, insider-written blog posts, patched-through phone calls and staged events using campaign insiders or close associates. But, astroturfing isn’t just for lobbying campaigns trying to pressure Congress on an issue of a piece of legislation. Astroturfing is used by political campaigns, too. It’s just rarely termed that way.

Building a legitimate grassroots movement of support for first time or unknown candidates means first creating the perception that there are people out there that are already supporting them. This means finding creative ways to build that perception by using a number of techniques, including events filled with friends and family to show a crowd, letters to the editor written by campaign operatives and signed by supporters, and even blog posts written by a son or daughter of a close friend. These are a few tactics, commonly referred to as astroturfing, that work to create the perception that people are backing this unknown candidate.

As I’ve pointed out before, “Americans love winners.� More importantly, voters have a tendency to back candidates that appear to have momentum and are perceived to be in front. In the campaign world we don’t call it astroturfing, we call it base building. But no matter what you term it, using astroturfing tactics to start the ball rolling in building a base of support is a critical part of creating a winning campaign from scratch.

 

The Liberals may disagree, but the townhall protests work…

WRS is proud to be a part of the Young Conservatives Coalition and serving with the Winston Group as the YCC’s pollster.

In an effort to win back the youth vote, Senate Policy Committee Chairman Sen. John Thune (R-SD) and House Republican Whip Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) co-chaired a Young Conservatives Leadership Summit in Washington, DC. The purpose of the summit was to connect young conservative leaders from around the country with one another, brainstorm ideas about fostering youth activism, and discussing the next generation of the conservative movement.

“Winning back the trust and support of our nation’s young people has to be a top priority for the Republican Party and I am encouraged to see so many dedicated young conservatives. This summit is just the beginning and I look forward to working with these groups to rebuild the support of younger generations in the future,� said Rep. Cantor.

The summit was sponsored by the Young Conservatives Coalition, a group dedicated to organizing the next generation of the conservative movement. The participants who attended were young conservative leaders, in between the ages of 18-40, and represented various political center-right young adult and college organizations. The day-long summit consisted of roundtable discussions, brainstorming sessions, and presentations from congressional leaders and media allies.

“After last year’s poor showing with the youth vote, we felt it was necessary to gather young leaders from across the country and strategize ways to foster youth activism within the conservative movement to ultimately win back the youth vote,� stated Christopher Malagisi, President of the YCC.

Guest speakers included summit co-chairs Sen. John Thune (R-SD) and Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), House Republican Leader Rep. John Boehner (R-OH), NRCC Chairman Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX), RNC New Media Director Todd Herman, and Bill Kristol, editor of The Weekly Standard.

The group will release a national youth assessment, organize a national youth “strike force� ambassadors program and develop a strategic memo on winning back the conservative youth vote. A strong emphasis will be placed on conservative education, outreach, and harnessing new media and technology.

Check out Tyler Harber’s recent post on Politics Magazine’s Campaign Insider’s Blog:

Waging War in Townhalls

As Congress adjourns for a month long recess, the most important battles over healthcare reform will be played out in townhall meetings in congressional districts all across the country. Why is this important? Simple answer: It’s all about earned media. Townhall attendance isn’t enough to actually change national opinion regarding healthcare, but reports of protests and chaotic townhall sessions make headlines that can effect perception.

As General George S. Patton said, “America loves a winner.� That’s true of politicians and even positions on issues. The vast (and growing) population of independents has a tendency to back what they perceive to be the “winning� side. That’s why you hear consultants harp on “momentum� in the closing days of a campaign. Because late-breaking voters cast a ballot for whom they think is winning. The same principle applies to the battle over healthcare.

Over the past several weeks, reports have surfaced of a growing number of incidents at townhalls hosted by congressmen supporting the president’s healthcare plan. The townhalls in the spotlight have seen everything from yelling, asking the congressman loaded questions, and general disruption in opposition to the proposed legislation. Alone, these townhalls would normally have little impact—other than perhaps embarrassing the congressman in front of a few dozen people. But, traditional and non-traditional media has helped proliferate reports of protest.

Noting the success of the protests in the townhalls, Republicans are now encouraging more of those who are miffed about the healthcare reform to attend their Democratic congressman’s townhall and ask tough questions. Democrats are trying to gain control of the situation by attempting to paint townhall rioters as extremists who are obstructing constructive conversation about the future of our nation’s healthcare system. Unfortunately for the Democrats, local newspapers and television stations are more likely to cover a townhall that has the potential to be explosive than not. The reason is because it makes for good entertainment. So, until the “new� wears off on intra-townhall riots, the Democrats will have to brace for the worst.

But, watch for Democrats to change from in-person townhalls to telephone townhalls, where they can control the questions much like a call-in radio show. They still get to send out a press release saying they hosted a townhall where they heard from constituents regarding healthcare.