from the PRIsm Political Report:

 

Oklahomans went to the polls to choose nominees last night and the Democratic race for Governor proved to be an unexpected nail-biter with a surprise winner.  Despite late polling showing Attorney General Drew Edmondson with double-digit leads over Lt. Gov. Jari Askins, it was she who pulled out about a 1,500 vote victory.  The race was close all night, and Askins withstood an Edmondson onslaught from Tulsa where he racked up 62% of the vote.  Askins was consistently in the low 50s throughout the rest of the state.

 

On the Republican side, Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK-5), as expected, won her nomination outright, scoring 55% of the vote against three other candidates.  Fallin and Askins will now square off in the general election for the right to succeed term-limited Gov. Brad Henry (D).  The Republican Congresswoman begins the race as the favorite.

 

In the Democratic race for US Senate, retired educator Jim Rogers won the right to face Sen. Tom Coburn this fall.  Coburn is rated a safe bet for re-election.

 

In the House races, all incumbents were re-nominated and cruise through easy re-election campaigns.  In the open 5^th district, college professor James Lankford surprised everyone by placing first in the Republican primary with 34% of the vote against former state Rep. Kevin Calvey, who was always believed to be strong enough to qualify for the second ballot.  Calvey finished a close second with 32%.  The August 24^th GOP run-off will be anybody’s game, but the winner will have the inside track to a November victory, as OK-5 is a solid Republican seat.  On the Democratic side, attorney Billy Coyle was an easy winner and will face the victor of the Lankford-Calvey run-off. 

Raising eyebrows in federal campaign political circles, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has reserved some $28 million worth of television advertising time to support the re-election bids of 40 incumbent Democratic Members of Congress and the Democratic nominee in Kansas’ Third Congressional District. While the reservation of advertising time is not necessarily an indication of what the DCCC will actually spend in advertising in each of these congressional districts, the reservations are a possible indication of DCCC’s level of concern about their prospects of holding these seats in November.

 

 

Of interest is the fact that the list of reservations only includes one open seat, so far (KS-3), and no seats currently held by House Republicans. Of the 41 seats in which reservations of advertising time have been placed, President Obama gained a majority of the vote in the 2008 election in 19 of those seats. In 26 of those seats, the Democratic nominee posted double-digit wins during the last election. In nine of those seats, the Democratic incumbent won with a margin or 20 percent or more.

 

 

(* Special election margins)

from the PRIsm Political Report:

Following the defeat of party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter two weeks ago in Pennsylvania, northern Alabama Republican voters similarly rejected Rep. Parker Griffith who left the Democratic Party after being elected to the House in 2008.  Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks, despite being outspent by more than 4:1, easily defeated Griffith and avoided a run-off by claiming majority support within the Republican primary.  Brooks scored 51% of the vote to Griffith’s 33%.  Former Alabama Republican Party staff member Les Phillip claimed 16%.   Political consultant and former congressional aide Steve Raby easily won the Democratic nomination and must be considered a credible candidate in the general election since AL-5 has never elected a Republican to the House. 

 

Griffith’s home of Huntsville is the area largely responsible for turning him out.  While carrying the three small rural counties by huge majorities, Rep. Griffith could only manage 24% in the district’s most dominant county of Madison.  Brooks received 58% of the vote here, and it proved to be the difference in the race.  Brooks also racked up large percentages in the two counties adjoining Madison in the Huntsville metropolitan area.  Already during this primary season two incumbent US Senators have been denied re-nomination and a third could go down in the June 8^th run-off election.  Griffith is the second incumbent House member to lose.  Rep. Alan Mollohan was denied re-nomination in West Virginia earlier this month.

 

In the Governor’s race, the Democratic electorate was not kind to another US Congressman.  Despite leading in most polls, Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL-7) went down to a crushing 38-62% defeat to Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks.  Davis had moved significantly to the right during the current term in Congress, voting against such bills as healthcare reform and Cap & Trade.  Obviously trying to play to the general election voter composition, Davis’ strategy backfired as even African American organizations turned against him to endorse Sparks.  The Republican side is so close among three contenders that it is yet unclear as to who will move into the run-off election in July.  With about 100 precincts still to count, former Community College Chancellor Bradley Byrne had wrapped up one run-off slot with 28% of the vote.  State Rep. Robert Bentley and real estate developer Tim James, son of former Gov. Fob James, were separated by only a couple of hundred votes, each at 25%.  Former AL Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore finished a strong fourth with almost 21% of the vote. 

 

In other Alabama congressional races, Montgomery city Councilwoman Martha Roby just missed an outright win in the 2^nd district, garnering just over 49% of the vote.  She will face Tea Party activist Rick Barber in the July 13 run-off.  The winner, presumably Roby, will face freshman Rep. Bobby Bright in November.  This is one of the top GOP challenger races in the nation.  In Davis’ open 7^th district, a safe Democratic seat, attorney Terri Sewell and Jefferson County Commissioner Sheila Smoot will advance to the run-off election.  The winner will claim the seat in November.  Sewell captured 37% of the vote to Smoot’s 29%.  State Rep. Earl Hilliard, Jr., whose father held the seat before losing to Davis, in 2002 placed third with 27%. 

 

In Mississippi, the most watched race of the night was the 1^st congressional district Republican primary.  State Sen. Alan Nunnelee claimed the nomination with a 52-33-15% victory over former Eupora Mayor Henry Ross and ex-Fox News analyst Angela McGowan.  Nunnelee will now face two-term Rep. Travis Childers in a seat that is normally a Republican strong hold.

 

The New Mexico Governor’s race now figures to be competitive as Dona Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez won a big 51-27-12-7% win over former state GOP chair Allen Weh, consultant Doug Turner, and attorney Pete Domenici, Jr.  Martinez will now oppose Lt. Gov. Diane Denish who was unchallenged for the Democratic nomination.  Gov. Bill Richardson is term-limited. 

 

 

 

With House Republicans poised to seek a floor vote to remove Rep. Charlie Rangel of his Chairmanship of the Ways & Means Committee, House Democrats in potentially competitive races will be in a tough situation in the wake of the Ethics Committee’s findings that House rules were broken.

The Hill’s Susan Crabtree writes on their tenuous situation.  Key excerpts below:

Reps. Betty Sutton (Ohio) and Harry Mitchell (Ariz.) have joined the ranks of Democrats calling for the New York Democrat to relinquish his gavel in the wake of the ethics committee finding that Rangel violated House rules.

There are now seven Democrats who have publicly called and/or voted to have Rangel give up his chairmanship: Reps. Bobby Bright (Ala.), Travis Childers (Miss.), Paul Hodes (N.H.), Mitchell, Mike Quigley (Ill.), Sutton and Gene Taylor (Miss.).

Meanwhile, Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) is giving money Rangel donated to his campaign to charity while Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) is returning funds to the 79-year-old chairman.

In a release, Kirkpatrick said, “The bipartisan ethics committee has found that Congressman Rangel did not live up to the standards Members owe to their constituents with this matter and continues to look into other serious breaches. While I deeply respect his lifetime of service as a soldier and as a U.S. representative, I can no longer accept his support.�

According to CQ Money Line, other Democrats who have received funds from Rangel this cycle include Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.) and Reps. Dina Titus (Nev.), Eric Massa (N.Y.), Dan Maffei (N.Y.), Gary Peters (Mich.), Debbie Halvorson (Ill.) and Mike McMahon (N.Y.).

The ethics committee found that Rangel violated House gift rules when he accepted reimbursement for two trips to the Caribbean that were sponsored by corporations. House ethics rules Democrats passed in 2007 after they won the majority bar corporations that employ lobbyists from sponsoring travel that lasts more than one day.