from the PRIsm Political Report:

Following the defeat of party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter two weeks ago in Pennsylvania, northern Alabama Republican voters similarly rejected Rep. Parker Griffith who left the Democratic Party after being elected to the House in 2008.  Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks, despite being outspent by more than 4:1, easily defeated Griffith and avoided a run-off by claiming majority support within the Republican primary.  Brooks scored 51% of the vote to Griffith’s 33%.  Former Alabama Republican Party staff member Les Phillip claimed 16%.   Political consultant and former congressional aide Steve Raby easily won the Democratic nomination and must be considered a credible candidate in the general election since AL-5 has never elected a Republican to the House. 

 

Griffith’s home of Huntsville is the area largely responsible for turning him out.  While carrying the three small rural counties by huge majorities, Rep. Griffith could only manage 24% in the district’s most dominant county of Madison.  Brooks received 58% of the vote here, and it proved to be the difference in the race.  Brooks also racked up large percentages in the two counties adjoining Madison in the Huntsville metropolitan area.  Already during this primary season two incumbent US Senators have been denied re-nomination and a third could go down in the June 8^th run-off election.  Griffith is the second incumbent House member to lose.  Rep. Alan Mollohan was denied re-nomination in West Virginia earlier this month.

 

In the Governor’s race, the Democratic electorate was not kind to another US Congressman.  Despite leading in most polls, Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL-7) went down to a crushing 38-62% defeat to Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks.  Davis had moved significantly to the right during the current term in Congress, voting against such bills as healthcare reform and Cap & Trade.  Obviously trying to play to the general election voter composition, Davis’ strategy backfired as even African American organizations turned against him to endorse Sparks.  The Republican side is so close among three contenders that it is yet unclear as to who will move into the run-off election in July.  With about 100 precincts still to count, former Community College Chancellor Bradley Byrne had wrapped up one run-off slot with 28% of the vote.  State Rep. Robert Bentley and real estate developer Tim James, son of former Gov. Fob James, were separated by only a couple of hundred votes, each at 25%.  Former AL Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore finished a strong fourth with almost 21% of the vote. 

 

In other Alabama congressional races, Montgomery city Councilwoman Martha Roby just missed an outright win in the 2^nd district, garnering just over 49% of the vote.  She will face Tea Party activist Rick Barber in the July 13 run-off.  The winner, presumably Roby, will face freshman Rep. Bobby Bright in November.  This is one of the top GOP challenger races in the nation.  In Davis’ open 7^th district, a safe Democratic seat, attorney Terri Sewell and Jefferson County Commissioner Sheila Smoot will advance to the run-off election.  The winner will claim the seat in November.  Sewell captured 37% of the vote to Smoot’s 29%.  State Rep. Earl Hilliard, Jr., whose father held the seat before losing to Davis, in 2002 placed third with 27%. 

 

In Mississippi, the most watched race of the night was the 1^st congressional district Republican primary.  State Sen. Alan Nunnelee claimed the nomination with a 52-33-15% victory over former Eupora Mayor Henry Ross and ex-Fox News analyst Angela McGowan.  Nunnelee will now face two-term Rep. Travis Childers in a seat that is normally a Republican strong hold.

 

The New Mexico Governor’s race now figures to be competitive as Dona Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez won a big 51-27-12-7% win over former state GOP chair Allen Weh, consultant Doug Turner, and attorney Pete Domenici, Jr.  Martinez will now oppose Lt. Gov. Diane Denish who was unchallenged for the Democratic nomination.  Gov. Bill Richardson is term-limited. 

 

 

 

David Catanese of Politico had this as the title of his article yesterday.  Some key excerpts:

-[Sen. Evan Bayh's]departure now places 10 Democratic-held Senate seats at risk. If all are swept under by a November GOP wave, Republicans are back in control of the Senate.

-The situation in Arkansas continues to deteriorate

-Romanoff roughs up Bennet in Colorado

-A Gillibrand challenge jells in New York

-Third time’s a charm for Rossi in Washington ?

-Specter’s campaign trail vigor in Pennsylvania

Each of the races highlighted were seats the Democrats had no expectation of even being in-play this cycle.  With a new poll out showing 52% of Americans saying President Obama doesn’t deserve re-election, the situation continues to get worse for Democrats. 

As Catanese sums it up: “The lesson of the tumultuous past 45 days is that the contours of the political landscape can change in an instant — and a death, a retirement or a top candidate’s decision not to run can wreak havoc on the best laid political plans.”