A new survey out indicates that Independent voters view things more like Republicans than Democrats these days.  This is excellent news for a bruised GOP, searching for a way to come back (or to at least not lose any more seats in Congress).

For the past several days, a number of news agencies have reported that mood about the direction the county is heading in has improved.  This is true.  American are more optimistic than they were even six months ago.  Fatigue with the Bush administration in addition to an accelerated economic recession made things look bleak.  Now, under new leadership, Americans seem to be holding on to more hope that things are improving despite the fact that we are still in the middle of one of the worst economic crisis in decades.

But, a closer loo reveals that Democratic voters are driving this new found optimism, as a majority of Independents and Republicans believe that the US is still “off on the wrong track:”

> Would you say that America is headed in the right direction, or have things gotten off on the wrong track?

Right Direction: 40%   (GOP: 13% | IND: 34% | DEM: 72%)
Wrong Track: 50%   (GOP: 80% | IND: 52% | DEM: 22%)

This gives Republicans a perfect place to begin reaching out to Independents.  Both groups are unhappy about the status quo, especially the push by Democrats and Obama to make government a large, deficit generating institution.

> Which of the following statements about the role of government comes closer to your view:

Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of the people.
47%   (GOP: 26% | IND: 40% | DEM: 72%)

Government is trying to do more things than it can do well, things that should be left to the private sector and individuals.
50%   (GOP: 73% | IND: 55% | DEM: 24%)

> Which of the following statements about the role of government comes closer to your view:Government policies should promote fairness by narrowing the gap between rich and poor, spreading the wealth, and making sure that economic outcomes are more equal.
31%   (GOP: 20% | IND: 28% | DEM: 44%)

Government policies should promote opportunities by fostering job growth, encouraging entrepeneurs, and allowing people to keep more of what they earn.
63%   (GOP: 78% | IND: 65% | DEM: 48%)

Clearly, Independents - like Republicans - believe that the role of government is to promote opportunity and that current action by the Democratic Congress and the administration has likely been too much.  In fact, 70% of Independents say they “prefer a smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes.”

So, if Independents view things similarly to Republicans then why did we lose the White House and dozens of Congressional seats in the past four year?

Generally speaking, the reason we lost in 2006 and 2008 is because we failed to communicate effectively to Independents that we see things the way they do.  We have also been so caught up in pushing social conservative themes (not that they are wrong - see my post about that here) that Independent voters failed to realize that the Republican party is also the party of smaller government and free markets.  They know that we are the pro-life, pro-traditional marriage family.  We have to connect with them about issues they care about: economy, taxes, role and size of government, health care, etc.  Our loses among this critically important bloc is due more to a lack of targeted, effective communication than anything else.

The good news is that 2010 is looking much better for Republicans than either 2006 or 2008.

While a handful of high profile Republicans have earned headlines recently with talk of moderation and embracing gay marriage, party strategists know that future success lies more with targeted advertising than hedging on key issues important to the traditional Republican voter.

The base still responds best to social conservative issues; however, those same issues push Independents and softer Republicans away from GOP candidates. Therefore, a targeted message execution can deliver the right messages to the right populations.

Some of our losses in the past four years can be attributed to poor communication plans that relied heavily on mass marketing a few message points that drove away votes critical to victory (aka - Independents). The key is that you have to engage voters with issues they care about. This is not moderation, this is campaign strategy.

An article on Politico.com this weekend suggests that a “rebellion is brewing” in the Republican party between traditionalist that refuse to hedge on social issues and their moderate counterparts that don’t see eye-to-eye regarding abortion, gay marriage, and even gun rights.  I couldn’t disagree more.  No one in the party structure (RNC) is pushing for us to abandon our social conservative roots.  The media has been distracted by a few news-makers.

The bottom-line is that not everyone in the Republican party is motivated by abortion and gay marriage.  But, there are likely some issues that the majority can agree on (economy comes to mind!).  The key in each campaign is to develop messages that effectively engage sub-segments of the electorate necessary to win.  Rarely will one message bridge all groups necessary to get 50% + 1.  So, the idea that the only way Republicans can win is to embrace gay marriage and abortion is silly.

I wrote about this exact same thing before the RNC Winter meeting in January (see here).  The problem we are facing as a party is that moderates and Independents haven’t been engaged effectively.  Generally speaking, they are attracted to our messages about fiscal conservatism, but we haven’t done a great job of demonstrating that they are more like us (Republicans) than Democrats.  Again, all this means is that we should target economic messages to these groups instead of clumping them in with the social conservative messages we use to motivate our base.  They know we are the pro-life/pro-traditional marriage party.  They just need to know what else we stand for before making a decision.

WRS is pleased to publish this guest article by Kevin Wright, the Founder/Director of Old Dominion Research Group.  Kevin can be contacted via email here.

The Freedom of Choice Act, also known as FOCA, was most recently introduced in the 110th Congress, and according to the Rep. Jerrold Nadler (D-NY), the legislation’s chief architect in the House, FOCA will again be introduced “sooner rather than later.� This is an issue that will loom large in the 2010 elections.

FOCA is literally the single most radical legislative effort in recent memory. At first glance, FOCA sounds innocuous enough. It’s supporters contend the legislation would merely codify Roe V. Wade, ensuring that a “woman’s right to choose� will not be eroded. But upon closer examination, it is anything but a codification.

If enacted, FOCA will literally turn on its head over 30-years of work by invalidating approximately 300 local, state and federal laws regulating abortion, past, present and future. FOCA would forever change abortion by making it legal, on-demand anywhere and at anytime, without restriction.

Without restriction? Yes, that means even “mainstream� regulations will be wiped from the books, including:

* Nullify Parental Notification
* Undo Unborn Victims of Violence Legislation
* Reverse the Partial Birth Abortion Ban
* Invalidate the Hyde Amendment and Other Bans on Public Funding
* Quash Protections for Healthcare Workers
* Force Faith-based Hospitals to Perform Abortions

Studies suggest that if these laws are invalidated, the frequency of abortion in the U.S. would increase by approximately 125,000 per year. That is not codification of Roe V. Wade, that’s fundamental change in the regulation of abortion in the U.S.

So how could such a drastic piece of legislation even threaten to become law? Two reasons:

1. Because FOCA is supported by some of the most deep-pocketed liberal organizations in the country, and these organizations have disbursed over $25 million to pro-abortion Congressional candidates and have spent tens of millions more on independent expenditures and get-out-the-vote operations. These organizations have invested a lot of time and money to elect allies to Congress and the Executive Office. Now they expect payback.

2. The pro-abortion movement has had no greater opportunity to push FOCA than now, in the 111th Congress. In the 110th Congress, the last time it was introduced, FOCA legislation had 108 co-sponsors in the House and 18 in the Senate. Democrat numbers have swelled since. Democrats enjoy larger majorities in the House and Senate and have a strong ally in President Barack Obama, the most left-leaning Executive Office since Franklin Roosevelt. Obama, while campaigning for the Democrat nomination, promised Planned Parenthood that FOCA was a top priority and would sign it the moment it crossed his desk. In other words, the time is now for FOCA.

This is bad legislation that must be stopped to protect the rights of taxpayers from footing the bill for abortions, protect the rights of healthcare workers and prevent Catholic hospitals from closing and denying millions of Americans much needed help. Each Representative and each Senator must be made famous for their radical support of abortion, and in many cases FOCA itself.

Here at the WRS Political Insider Journal we’ve written about a number of the subjects that could be summed up as the honeymoon issues for President Obama.  We’ve touched on the stimulus package, various bailout proposals and the media’s coverage of the same.  And while the President still very much enjoys a honeymoon there are a few issues where that isn’t the case.  Check out the latest findings from a recent Gallup poll.

56% oppose President Obama on the issue of Guantanamo and 65% disapprove of his lifting the executive order that banned spending federal funds for abortions in overseas clinics.  What is interesting is that while one would expect all of these issues to follow significant splits across party lines, Obama actually gets a majority of support from even Republicans on all these issues but the last three.  In the chart below also notice how the Guantanamo and abortion issues lose a significant number of Democrats. 

Much has been made about the recent success Democrats have had in bringing some conservative Democrats back to the party.  President Obama should tread lightly on these and other similar issues or risk losing much of this segment again.  As Obama’s administration continues to take shape it will be interesting to see how some of the more partisan issues that often pass for so much of the conventional wisdom actually plays out among the public.