Pundits are laughing at Biden’s latest quote about the upcoming election, but I think we should pay more attention to the idea behind it:

The reports of the death of the Democratic Party have been greatly exaggerated.  The day after the election there will be a Democratic majority in the House and a Democratic majority in the Senate. If it wasn’t illegal, I would make book on it.

Gallup points out that Republicans are much more enthusiastic, hold a 3-point lead on the generic ballot, and the Presidential approval rating is below 50%, all indicative of double-digit loses for Democrats in November.

While Biden may be overstating the Democrats’ strength, it is important that Republicans realize that this election is not yet “in the bag.”  Voters are clearly upset with Obama and Democrats, but recent polling suggests (pdf) that voters hold a very negative opinion of the Republican Party - worse than what they think about the Democratic Party.

Democratic Party
Positive   32%
Neutral  22%
Negative  44%

Republican Party
Positive  24%
Neutral  28%
Negative  46%

This means that voters aren’t going to be casting a vote for Republican candidates because they like the GOP.  Actually, swing and Independent voters will have to hold their nose to vote for a Republican.  The fact is that the GOP has done little to positively re-brand the Republican Party in a way that makes it attractive.  This makes our candidates just as vulnerable as the Democrats.  And we shouldn’t forget that no matter how many seats we win (or lose).

While many pundits think that the takeover of the US House is eminent, I am a bit more cautious.  We are seeing a lot of data that shows Republicans competitive in Dem-held seats.  But, with voters as upset with Republicans, we can’t take anything for granted.  We still have to run a superior race.  The seats that we are out-campaigned in, we will no doubt lose.

Recently released polling data indicates that Obama may no longer be helpful to Democratic candidates.  Sure he can still raise money, but President Obama is currently holding net negative ratings for a number of major issues facing candidates on the campaign trail:

Obama handling Economy
43 Favorable - 54 Unfavorable (was 50 fav - 49 unfav in June)

Obama handling Health Care
45 Favorable - 50 Unfavorable (was 49 fav - 49 unfav in June)

Obama handling Federal Budget Deficit
40 Favorable - 56 Unfavorable (largely unchanged from June)

Obama handling Regulation of Financial Industry
44 Favorable - 50 Unfavorable (was 48 fav - 48 unfav in April)

Those numbers aren’t great for the guy who is meant to give gravitas to candidates about key issues.  Furthermore, overall confidence in Obama is on the decline:

Confidence in Obama
43 Confident - 57 Not Confident (was 47 confident - 53 not confident in January)

The bottomline is that Obama can still raise money for Democratic candidates, but will have a hard time convincing the same “wave” voters that elected him to show up for his comrades.  This takes away the Democrat’s last weapon (positive power of a popular President).

Look for Democratic candidates in traditionally Republican districts to distance themselves and even refuse a visit from Obama in their districts.  The bad news just keeps on coming for our Democrat friends!

When White House Spokesman Robert Gibbs let it slip that he thought the House was in play in November, it may have been less of an accident and more about lowering expectations in what will be a bad year for Democrats.

But, there are a number of advantages and disadvantages facing the Grand Old Party.

WRS is happy to post a guest post by Field Strategist Amelia T. Chasse.

Last week, Sen. Lindsey Graham predicted that the Tea Party movement would “die out� in the near future. Graham is probably keeping his fingers crossed that his prediction becomes reality before his 2012 re-election campaign, as the strength of Tea Party is creating difficulties for incumbents and political insiders like the South Carolina Senator. Take Graham’s close friend and Senate ally, John McCain, for example. Two years ago, the perennially popular Arizona Senator was the Republican nominee for President. Now, McCain is facing a difficult primary challenge in the form of Tea Party-backed J.D. Hayworth, who as been able to energize the state’s increasingly conservative base and successfully portray McCain as a spineless moderate.

Voters won’t decide McCain’s fate until August 24th, but the 2010 primary season has already seen its share of upset losses for political insiders. In April, Florida Governor Charlie Crist announced his withdrawal from the state’s Republican Senate primary to run as an Independent. The moderate Governor faced an almost certain loss to Tea Party-backed Marco Rubio, so he chose to opt out and take his chances as a third party candidate rather than suffer a humiliating primary defeat. The trend continued in the Kentucky Senate primary in May with activist Rand Paul’s insurgent victory over Secretary of State Trey Grayson.

Those who attributed Paul’s victory to a famous father and a conservative electorate got a wake up call on June 8th, when California voters nominated businesswomen Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman over former Congressman Tom Campbell and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner in the respective Senate and Gubernatorial primaries. The same day, Nevada and Maine, two states generally rife with moderate Republicans, both nominated Tea Partiers in key primaries contrary to the predictions of the most recent polls. In Nevada, activist Sharron Angle beat former State GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden to take on Sen. Harry Reid in November, and small town Mayor Paul LePage’s insurgent, below-the-radar campaign came out on top against well-known state Senator Peter Mills and two millionaire self-funders in the Pine Tree State’s gubernatorial primary.

The next major test of this emerging pattern could be the August 10th Colorado Senate primary, where activist Ken Buck seems poised to beat former Governor Jane Norton; a recent Survey USA poll has him up by sixteen points.

Many, like Sen. Graham, chalk up the strength of the Tea Party to the anger-fueled “throw the bums out� mentality that is gripping the GOP electorate in the wake of the Obama administration’s liberal policy initiatives. While that dynamic certainly plays a major role, it does not account for the fact that insiders aren’t the only candidates being defeated en masse by Tea Partiers. Businessmen candidates, whom many analysts predicted would be strong in 2010 due to the troubled economy, are also falling short when faced with conservative activist opponents. Several of the contests mentioned above included at least one competitive candidate running on private-sector business credentials. Las Vegas businessman Danny Tarkanian finished in third place in Nevada, and Maine’s LePage also defeated well-funded businessmen Les Otten and Bruce Poliquin.

California is an interesting exception, with two pragmatic former CEOs emerging as the GOP nominees for Senate and Governor. Whitman did not have a Tea Party challenger in her race, but Fiorina took on activist Chuck DeVore, who finished third. A possible explanation is that, historically, only moderate Republicans have been able to get elected in the Golden State, leading GOP voters to be more strategic about their choices. Additionally, California’s notoriously expensive media market requires candidates to be extremely well-funded to be competitive, and both Fiorina and Whitman were able to pour millions of their own money into their primary bids, which their competitors could not match.

The lesson to be drawn from California is that the Tea Party draws its strength from right-wing grassroots activism and candidates who excel at retail politics, and thus is at its least effective in states that trend moderate and rely heavily on the wholesale politics of paid media. However, even in those states, the electorate is still choosing political outsiders.

With the 2010 election season about to go into full swing, these primary races provide an opportunity to take the temperature of likely voters, which aids political analysts in predicting the outcome of the races ahead, and candidates in refining their messages to appeal to the electorate. At the very least, the GOP primaries to date have made it clear that the Tea Party will play a major role in this election cycle, so pundits may want to revise their earlier assessments about the legitimacy and effectiveness of the movement, and incumbents and insider candidates may want to reconsider running on past experience, and pivot to talk about what they will do for the future.

Amelia Chasse can be reached at atchasse@gmail.com.

WRS is happy to post a guest piece by Field Strategist Amelia T. Chasse.

Sharron Angle’s surprising but decisive win in the Nevada Senate primary has given veteran Senator Harry Reid an opponent who is his antithesis; a brash, fiery outsider competing with the ultimate insider for a vulnerable Senate seat in a critical midterm election. In order to pull off a victory against the entrenched Senate Majority Leader, Angle must quickly transition from the small-time retail campaigning that made her a State Assemblywoman into building the organized statewide campaign infrastructure that will make her a Senator. A few pointers:

1. Run against Reid, not Obama.
In states with relatively popular Democratic incumbents, Republican candidates would do well to tie their opponents to an increasingly unpopular President. This is not the case in Nevada. While Obama’s approval rating is at 45-50% according to most polls, Reid’s hovers around an anemic 35%, making him significantly less popular than the President. Angle needs to focus the campaign on Reid, and avoid engaging Obama if he shows up to stump for the Senator. Approval numbers for Congress as a whole are even lower than Reid’s, having recently dipped under 20%, so all attempts should be made to tie Reid to Nancy Pelosi and his other colleagues in the increasingly unpopular legislative body.

2. Run a tight ship.
Angle already has the support of the activists, which is great for building community organizations and recruiting volunteers. This type of support can be powerful when harnessed, and in turn, can become a liability if allowed to run wild. To run a successful general election campaign against an entrenched incumbent, Angle must bring in professional campaign staff and consultants, and do so quickly, in order to whip her very informal organization into the focused, disciplined campaign she will need to win. A campaign with a cohesive strategy and a solid infrastructure will be able to direct and manage Angle’s strong grassroots support, and convert it into votes on Election Day.

3. Message, message, message.
Angle will be the target of a constant barrage of attacks from Reid, high-profile surrogates, and Democrat special interest groups. Angle’s campaign must have impeccable message discipline when responding to these attacks in order to avoid being backed into a corner and looking inconsistent and amateurish. This requires a defined message, a strong communications team, and a rapid-response operation to rival Clinton’s famous 1992 “war room.� It also requires the candidate herself to be as disciplined and on-message as her campaign.

4. Use the enthusiasm gap.
According to a recent Gallup poll, enthusiasm levels among GOP voters are the highest they have been in decades, even higher than they were leading up to the 1994 Republican Revolution. There is also a 15-point enthusiasm gap between the two parties, with 59% of Republicans and only 44% of Democrats describing themselves as “more enthusiastic than usual� at the prospect of voting in the upcoming election. Nevada’s electorate is composed of 43% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and about 20% Independents. However, following the 2006 midterm election, the number of registered voters in each party was about equal, so it is likely that a statistically significant percentage of registered Democrats are so-called “Obama Democrats� that are less likely to vote in a midterm election. This means that a strong GOTV operation alone could carry Angle to victory.

5. Build out, not up.
Angle doesn’t need to worry about energizing the base, so however tempting it may be to revel in the adoration of thousands of hard-core supporters, it is essential she focus on coalition-building. Angle has voter enthusiasm and momentum on her side, but Reid is certain to have a strong turnout operation of his own. To ensure victory, Angle needs to have better numbers as well as a better operation heading into Election Day. Fortunately, Reid’s low approval numbers indicate that a significant amount of Independents and Democrats are disenchanted with their Senator. The Angle campaign needs to devote a significant amount of its energy and resources to reaching out to these Independents and soft Democrats, perhaps by garnering a few key bipartisan endorsements and emphasizing non-controversial policy proposals. If Angle is able to run an inclusive campaign focused on kitchen table issues that effect all Nevadans, it will pay off in November.

Amelia can be reached at atchasse@gmail.com.

New Gallup data released this morning shows that the enthusiasm of voters identifying themselves as Republican is significantly higher than it was in 1994 when the GOP won dozens of seats to take control of Congress.

Enthusiasm is directly linked to turn-out.  The more enthusiastic an electorate, the more likely they are to vote.  In this case, Republicans are most likely to vote party-line giving the GOP a boost at the ballot boxes in November.  This phenomenon will flip a number of swing-districts back to Republicans, but is it enough to give the GOP enough wins to take back Congress?

While Democratic voters are less enthusiastic than their Republican counterparts, the lack of interest is not as low as it was in 1994.  One could argue that this is enough Democratic interest to be competitive.  However, the Republicans maintain a 15-point lead in enthusiasm this year (59% - 44%) and only a 10-point lead (42% - 32%) in 1994.  So, this lead could make the difference.  But, will it be enough?

Republicans must still run strong races.  That requires raising money, running strong ads, targeting swing populations, and getting their people to the polls.  The enthusiasm boost will help bring in more money and allow Victory operations to spend less to get people out to the polls, but we shouldn’t take for granted that Republicans will automatically turn-out.

The news coverage about the BP spill has forced favorbility toward drilling to fall by nearly twenty points in roughly two months.

Naturally, we have seen a correllation between favorability and cost of gas, meaning that as gas prices spike this summer more Americans will trend back toward drilling.  The BP disaster is a bad thing, but stopping all future drilling is a foolish and generic response to a specific problem.  My bet is that by the end of the summer, Obama will be facing a public that is paying significantly higher prices for gas just months before a major election that could strip him of a friendly Congress.

Gallup releases new data that shows a significant drop-off in enthusiasm among young voters in the US.  This represents the latest in a series of indicators proving that the Obama wave will not make a reappearance in 2010.

Bottomline: Democrats are facing histroic loses.

The seats that the Democratic party won in 2008 due to Obama’s coattails will likely change parties.  Well-funded incumbents facing idiot challengers that shouldn’t have made it through their primaries will save a handful of seats.  But, overall, the Democrats should start bracing for the worst.

The White House should also create a “plan-b,” because Obama will be near lame-duck status at the beginning of the next Congress.

Find the complete analysis and charts here.  Remember to check back tomorrow after 6p for results of the Southern Republican Leadership Conference 2012 Presidential Straw Poll.

The summary of findings, which are also in the executive summary, are below:

Republicans hold the lead on the Generic Ballot for the first time since 1994
* The Republican base is re-energized and engaged as Independents solidly back Republican candidates over Democrats.
* In fact, support for the generic Democratic candidate has shrunk to fewer than one in five voters.

Health Care, Cap & Trade and a Failed Stimulus = Democratic Loses
* Congressmen face the public’s anger over Health Care, Cap & Trade and the Stimulus that most believe has failed.
* Each of these three issues presents a significant hurdle for dozens of Democratic Congressmen to overcome, especially for those incumbents in conservative-leaning seats.
* In fact, 51 Democrats hold seats in districts that McCain won or where Obama won with less than 55% have voted for two or more damaging pieces of legislation.

Obama’s drop in popularity sets the stage for double-digit Republican take-backs in 2010
* Concerns with out of control spending, the fear of higher takes drives and the continued economic slump pushes Obama’s approval down as Americans realize that the change Obama is bringing is not necessarily the change they wanted.
* History reveals that Republicans are on the heels of a monstrous take-back if Obama is unable to turn his image around.
* Based on current data, we estimate the GOP to gain approximately 36 seats in November.

Health Care may be the straw that broke the Donkey’s back.
* Initially the health care legislation was popular; however, Republicans and opponents to the reforms have successfully eroded the support as most surveys showed a majority of Americans opposing the legislation the day it passed.
* A majority now disapprove of the President on the issue of health care, making it difficult to effectively put a positive spin on the vote in an attempt to make it more palatable before November.
* Even after the vote, a solid majority say they oppose the reform and believe that the new law will result in increased costs and decreased quality of care.

Disapproval with Health Care Reform erodes trust in Obama about economy.
* A majority of Americans believe that the new health care legislation will drive-up debt, balloon spending and force Congress to increase taxes. This is a driving reason why voters are trusting Obama less on the economy.
* In fact, spending, debt and taxes have risen as top issues in many campaigns across the country as a solid majority worry about the effects health care will have on our economic future.

Republicans hold the edge in the 2012 Presidential.
* If the election were held today, the generic Republican Presidential candidate would beat Barack Obama by nearly 10-points.
* Support for Obama, even his base support, is weaker than the base support for the generic Republican candidate. This indicates a fatigue among Democratic party faithful, some of whom think he didn’t go far enough with health care and other pieces of legislation, while other more conservative Democrats believe he has gone too far. Regardless, his base is eroding.
* Much like we measured for the generic Congressional candidate, Independents are swinging back to red as trust and support for Obama is now at 24% despite his winning of this bloc with over 50% in 2008.

2012 swing voters?
* The target voters for 2012 are among the same population that Obama targeted to beat Hillary Clinton.
* The swing voter has a tendency to be female independents who are single living in the west and northeast with lower incomes and education.
* These voters cast their ballot for Obama in 2008, but aren’t sold on voting for him – or the Democrats – again in 2010 or 2012.
* The are clearly disturbed by the “change� Obama brought to Washington, as they believe that government is doing too much to intervene in the economy.

We are happy to serve as the pollster to Congressman Mike Sodrel who is seeking to retake his seat from Baron Hill.  The 9th district of Indiana has proven itself to be a (if not THE) bellweather district.  Republicans have won this seat in years that the GOP performed well nationally, and have lost it in years the DEMs experienced pick-ups.

This year is ripe for a GOP takeover, especially since Hill voted YES for Cap & Trade, Stimulus, Health Care, and a number of other bills that aren’t so popular in this Republican-leaning district that went for McCain 50% - 48%.

Hill-Sodrel rematch a virtual tie in GOP poll
By Aaron Blake - 03/24/10 02:29 PM ET

Former Rep. Mike Sodrel (R-Ind.) trails Rep. Baron Hill (D-Ind.) by just one point, 43-42, according to a poll conducted for Sodrel’s campaign.

The Wilson Research Strategies poll also shows Sodrel in solid position in his May 4 primary with attorney Todd Young and activist Travis Hankins. Sodrel’s name recognition from four previous campaigns in the district has spurred him to a 46-19 lead over Hankins. Young, who is a member of the NRCC’s Young Guns program, is in third, at 13 percent.

In the general election, only 22 percent of voters say they will definitely vote to reelect Hill. That number was 28 percent in a Wilson poll in 2008, before Hill beat Sodrel 58-38 for a third victory in four matchups.

The more recent poll was conducted between Feb. 28 and March 3, before the healthcare vote and immediately after Hill declared that he wouldn’t run for the state’s open Senate seat.

The poll actually finds Sodrel a little worse-off than a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the liberal website Firedoglake.com in January. That poll had Sodrel leading 49-41.