Murray Re-nominated, but Under 50%

The unusual Washington State primary is actually one of the best pre-general election polls available.  With all of the candidates placed on one ballot and voters having only one choice per office, the primary results are often a strong predictor for the upcoming November election.  The 2010 mid-term is now just eleven weeks away.

 

 

Sen. Patty Murray (D) easily won the Democratic nomination last night, but will likely finish with under 50% of the total vote.  With the state’s mail election system that allows ballots to be post-marked on Election Day, it takes several days, if not a full week, to complete the count.  With about 59% of the vote tabulated, and only half of huge King County reporting, Murray attracted 46% of the total vote.  King County, which houses the Seattle metropolitan area, is heavily Democratic so Murray’s total could rise by a point or so.

 

Republican former gubernatorial nominee and businessman Dino Rossi won the GOP nomination getting 34% in what is often termed the “jungle” primary.  Ex-professional football player Clint Didier was second in the GOP column with 12%.  Total turnout, thus far in the counting, shows approximately 475,000 Republican votes and 460,000 Democratic.  This will likely change substantially when all of King County reports.  Still, only breaking even in primary turnout in a state the Democrats dominate could mean that the Senate race and at least two congressional races will be highly competitive in the general election.

 

Turning to the US House, all incumbents broke the 50% mark with the exception of 2^nd district Rep. Rick Larsen and 8^th district incumbent Dave Reichert.  In the open 3^rd district (Rep. Brian Baird retiring), former state House Majority Leader Denny Heck (D) placed first with 32%, followed closely by Republican state Rep. Jaime Herrera’s 27%.  The total 3^rd district turnout count, at this tabulation point, shows the Republicans attracting over 63,000 cumulative votes to the Democrats’ 53,000.  Sixty-nine percent of the precincts have been counted in this race.  WA-3 is a marginal seat, so this open district will be hotly contested in November.

 

The surprise of the night was in the 2^nd district.  Rep. Larsen, originally elected in 2000, will clearly face his toughest re-election contest as he scored only 43% of the vote with 69% counted.  The Republican nominee will be Snohomish County Commissioner and former state Rep. John Koster who notched 41% of the vote.  Koster was Larsen’s first congressional opponent when the 2^nd district was last open and held the Congressman to a 50-46% victory in that year.  Though this current campaign has attracted little in the way of national attention, the closeness of the jungle primary suggests that WA-2 will rapidly move up the national target lists.  So far, turnout favors the Democrats by about 7,000 votes.

 

Closer to Seattle, GOP Rep. Reichert, always in a tough race in this marginal seat, scored 48% of the vote last night but easily outdistanced his Democratic opponent Suzan DelBene’s 26%.  Total Republican turnout exceeded the Democrats’ by about 18,000 participants with just over half the precincts tabulated.

 

Wyoming also held a primary election last night.  The Republicans featured a tight three-way gubernatorial race that could be headed to a recount.  Former US Attorney Matt Mead appears to have won the GOP nomination attracting 29% of the vote to state Auditor Rita Meyer’s 28% and former state Agriculture Department director Ron Micheli scoring 26%.  Colin Simpson, the state House Speaker and son of former Sen. Alan Simpson, managed only 16%.  It is likely that Mead will hold onto the nomination and be elected Governor in November.  Republicans swamped Democrats in terms of turnout.  More than 105,000 people voted in the GOP primary versus just 14,000 who chose the Democratic ballot.  Former state Democratic Party chair Leslie Petersen was an easy winner last night, but the general election is not expected to be competitive.  Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal is term-limited and was ineligible to seek a third term.

 

A new interactive map page from Gallup ranks states by party identification and ideology….

PRINCETON, NJ — More states are politically competitive this year than was the case in 2009, as fewer Americans nationwide identify with the Democratic Party. Vermont — along with the District of Columbia — is the most Democratic state in the U.S. in 2010 so far, while Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho are the most Republican.

These results are based on interviews with more than 175,000 U.S. adults, conducted between January and June 2010 as part of Gallup Daily tracking.

The accompanying map shows each state’s relative party strength in the first half of 2010. States in which one of the parties enjoys at least a 10 percentage-point advantage in leaned identification are considered solid supporters of that party. States in which a party has between a five- and a nine-point advantage are considered leaning toward that party, and states with less than a five-point advantage for one of the parties are considered competitive.

The complete data for each state appear on page 2.

Solidly Democratic states tend to cluster in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with a few exceptions in the far West (California, Hawaii, and Oregon), one in the Midwest (Illinois), and one in the Southwest (New Mexico). Solidly Republican states are all West of the Mississippi, including Alaska and states in the Mountain West (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana) and the Midwest (Nebraska and Kansas).

The most politically competitive states in the Union, all of which have Democratic-Republican gaps of less than one point, are Colorado, Mississippi, Missouri, and Virginia.

There are 10 fewer states in the solid Democratic category thus far in 2010 than there were in 2009, and one fewer state in the leaning Democratic category. At the same time, there are three more solid Republican states, and four more in the leaning Republican category. Sixteen states can be classified as competitive, four more than last year.

It is important to note that the classification of states reported here is based on the political affiliations of all residents, and does not necessarily match the party preferences of registered voters or indicate how a state might vote in a given election. Also, the partisanship figures include independents who have a partisan leaning along with each party’s core identifiers. This makes the states more comparable because the percentage of independents varies widely by state, and can understate a party’s true strength in a state.

National Democratic Advantage in Party Identification Narrows

Nationwide, Democrats have a 4-point party identification advantage over Republicans in 2010 (44% to 40%), down from an 8-point advantage in 2009 and a 12-point advantage in 2008.

While Democrats’ party strength fell in each of the last two years, Republicans have not gained concomitantly. Instead, the percentage of Americans who do not identify with or lean toward either political party has increased.

Bottom Line

Democrats’ advantage in party identification continues to dwindle this year. Fewer Americans identify as Democrats, and more say they don’t identify with or lean toward either party. On a state-by-state level, this means more states are now classified as competitive or leaning/solidly Republican than has been the case over the past two years, and fewer as leaning/solidly Democratic.

Some shift toward independent party identification is to be expected in the years between presidential elections; in presidential election years, party allegiance tends to be at its height. The key finding at this juncture is that Democrats, not Republicans, have been the net losers as Americans shift away from the major parties.

The overall result is a more competitive partisan environment this year than has been the case in the last two years, underscoring the potential for Republicans to do well and pick up seats in this year’s midterm elections.

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com posted a chart outlining the probablilty index of each party holding a particiular number of Senate seats after the 2010 election cycle.  Because national trends continue to be against the Democrats, one must wonder if the “toss-up” catagory will continue to expand.

WRS is happy to post a guest piece by Field Strategist Amelia T. Chasse.

Sharron Angle’s surprising but decisive win in the Nevada Senate primary has given veteran Senator Harry Reid an opponent who is his antithesis; a brash, fiery outsider competing with the ultimate insider for a vulnerable Senate seat in a critical midterm election. In order to pull off a victory against the entrenched Senate Majority Leader, Angle must quickly transition from the small-time retail campaigning that made her a State Assemblywoman into building the organized statewide campaign infrastructure that will make her a Senator. A few pointers:

1. Run against Reid, not Obama.
In states with relatively popular Democratic incumbents, Republican candidates would do well to tie their opponents to an increasingly unpopular President. This is not the case in Nevada. While Obama’s approval rating is at 45-50% according to most polls, Reid’s hovers around an anemic 35%, making him significantly less popular than the President. Angle needs to focus the campaign on Reid, and avoid engaging Obama if he shows up to stump for the Senator. Approval numbers for Congress as a whole are even lower than Reid’s, having recently dipped under 20%, so all attempts should be made to tie Reid to Nancy Pelosi and his other colleagues in the increasingly unpopular legislative body.

2. Run a tight ship.
Angle already has the support of the activists, which is great for building community organizations and recruiting volunteers. This type of support can be powerful when harnessed, and in turn, can become a liability if allowed to run wild. To run a successful general election campaign against an entrenched incumbent, Angle must bring in professional campaign staff and consultants, and do so quickly, in order to whip her very informal organization into the focused, disciplined campaign she will need to win. A campaign with a cohesive strategy and a solid infrastructure will be able to direct and manage Angle’s strong grassroots support, and convert it into votes on Election Day.

3. Message, message, message.
Angle will be the target of a constant barrage of attacks from Reid, high-profile surrogates, and Democrat special interest groups. Angle’s campaign must have impeccable message discipline when responding to these attacks in order to avoid being backed into a corner and looking inconsistent and amateurish. This requires a defined message, a strong communications team, and a rapid-response operation to rival Clinton’s famous 1992 “war room.� It also requires the candidate herself to be as disciplined and on-message as her campaign.

4. Use the enthusiasm gap.
According to a recent Gallup poll, enthusiasm levels among GOP voters are the highest they have been in decades, even higher than they were leading up to the 1994 Republican Revolution. There is also a 15-point enthusiasm gap between the two parties, with 59% of Republicans and only 44% of Democrats describing themselves as “more enthusiastic than usual� at the prospect of voting in the upcoming election. Nevada’s electorate is composed of 43% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and about 20% Independents. However, following the 2006 midterm election, the number of registered voters in each party was about equal, so it is likely that a statistically significant percentage of registered Democrats are so-called “Obama Democrats� that are less likely to vote in a midterm election. This means that a strong GOTV operation alone could carry Angle to victory.

5. Build out, not up.
Angle doesn’t need to worry about energizing the base, so however tempting it may be to revel in the adoration of thousands of hard-core supporters, it is essential she focus on coalition-building. Angle has voter enthusiasm and momentum on her side, but Reid is certain to have a strong turnout operation of his own. To ensure victory, Angle needs to have better numbers as well as a better operation heading into Election Day. Fortunately, Reid’s low approval numbers indicate that a significant amount of Independents and Democrats are disenchanted with their Senator. The Angle campaign needs to devote a significant amount of its energy and resources to reaching out to these Independents and soft Democrats, perhaps by garnering a few key bipartisan endorsements and emphasizing non-controversial policy proposals. If Angle is able to run an inclusive campaign focused on kitchen table issues that effect all Nevadans, it will pay off in November.

Amelia can be reached at atchasse@gmail.com.

New data covering some of the key races around the country is hitting the public domain.  Here are the latest seven:

 

CA-Sen:  Cross Target for Pajamas Media (6/13; 600 likely CA voters)

 

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D)      47%

Carly Fiorina (R)                  47%

 

This is a small-sample poll, but certainly in range with other released data.  Most of those, however, show Sen. Boxer with a slight lead.

 

CA-Gov:

 

Jerry Brown (D)                  46%

Meg Whitman (R)               43%

 

Cross Target also tested the Governor’s race and likewise came away with similar results to other more established firms.

 

IL-Sen:  Public Policy Polling (6/12-13; 552 likely IL voters)

 

Alexi Giannoulias (D)           31%

Mark Kirk (R)                         30%

LeAlan Jones (Green)          14%

 

The flap over Kirk’s military record has certainly cost him.  The respondents view both Giannoulias and Kirk with a poor 23:31 personal favorability ratio.  The big mover is Green Party candidate Jones.  It remains to be seen if the Independent’s double-digit showing will hold.

 

LA-Sen:  (Magellan Strategies for the Vitter campaign; 6/10-13; 1,030 likely LA voters)

 

Sen. David Vitter (R)            51%

Charlie Melancon (D)           31%

 

Approval over handling Gulf oil spill:

 

President Obama:                31% approve; 60% disapprove

Gov. Jindal:                            66% approve; 21% disapprove

 

Vitter is looking strong is this poll, but another one (Public Policy Polling) soon to be released, apparently shows the race to be within high single-digits.  Obviously, President Obama and Gov. Jindal are viewed completely differently in the context of grading their responses to the Gulf oil spill. Additionally, the polling sample overwhelmingly still supports off-shore drilling - 72-15% in favor of continuing to explore in the Gulf.

 

NC-8:  (Public Policy Polling - 6/10-13; 400 likely NC-8 voters)

 

Rep. Larry Kissell (D)           48%

Tim D’Annunzio (R)               26%

 

Rep. Larry Kissell (D)           41%

Harold Johnson (R)               35%

 

Rep. Larry Kissell (D)           40%

Harold Johnson (R)               30%

Wendell Fant (I)                     14%

 

Both sides are in chaos.  The Republicans have a difficult run-off to settle on June 22nd, with the entire GOP leadership supporting, and raising funds for, Johnson.  The SEIU, unhappy with Kissell’s vote against the healthcare legislation, filed 34,000 signature petitions for former Kissell staff member Fant, who hasn’t confirmed that he will run.  He is likely to qualify for the ballot since the valid signature requirement is only 17,000.

Election 2010: South Dakota House of Representatives

South Dakota House: Primary Victory Bounces Noem (R) Into Lead Over Herseth-Sandlin (D)

Monday, June 14, 2010

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_house_of_representatives_election/south_dakota/election_2010_south_dakota_house_of_representatives

When challengers take on an incumbent member of Congress, they almost always get a bounce in the polls following a victory in a contested primary. That appears to be the case in South Dakota following State Representative Kristi Noem’s Republican Primary victory last Tuesday which earns her the right to challenge Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey, conducted two nights after the primary, finds Noem attracting 53% of the vote, while Herseth-Sandlin earns just 41%. Just five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate or are undecided.

Prior to the primary, the incumbent held a three-point advantage over Noem. In April, Noem trailed by 15 points. It remains to be seen whether the bounce reflects a temporary aberration or signals a lasting change in the race.

Incumbents who poll below 50% are considered potentially vulnerable, and Herseth-Sandlin has been below that mark all year. However, incumbents have many benefits that can help them finish strong in an election season. In 2008, Rasmussen Reports showed two GOP senators, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, as potentially vulnerable following the selection of their primary opponents. McConnell ended up winning reelection with 53% of the vote, while Dole went down to defeat.

Herseth-Sandlin, who was reelected with 67% of the vote in 2008, helped lay the groundwork for a fall campaign by voting against the president’s health care bill earlier this year. Sixty-six percent (66%) of South Dakota voters favor repeal of that law. That’s a bit higher than the national support for repeal.

Noem earns 75% support from those voters who Strongly Favor repeal of the health care bill. Herseth-Sandlin gets 75% of the vote of those who are Strongly Opposed.

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in South Dakota was conducted on June 10, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Noem leads by more than 20 points among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Twenty-six percent (26%) of all South Dakota voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Herseth-Sandlin, who has been the state’s sole member of the House since June 2004. Seventeen percent (17%) view her Very Unfavorably. Both figures are up three percentage points since the primary.

Noem is viewed Very Favorably by 34%, way up from 19% before her primary victory. Only seven percent (7%) currently have a Very Unfavorable view of the GOP nominee.

At this stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of South Dakota voters consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, while 58% do not.

Noem wins 82% of the Tea Party vote. Herseth-Sandlin leads 55% to 38% among those who are not affiliated with the Tea Party.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of South Dakota voters say the Tea Party movement is good for the nation, but 27% think it’s bad for the country.

Herseth-Sandlin can’t count on a lot of help from her party leader. Just 40% of South Dakota voters approve of the way that Barack Obama is handling his role as president. That’s below the national level of approval as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In South Dakota, Rasmussen Reports projected that McCain would defeat Obama by a 53% to 44% margin. McCain won 53% to 45%. In that same year, the final Rasmussen poll showed Senator Tim Johnson with a 54% to38% lead over Joel Dykstra. Johnson won 62% to 38%.

In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the first to show John Thune ahead of Tom Daschle. The final Rasmussen poll showed Thune winning 49% to 46%. Thune won 51% to 49%. Also in 2004, the final Rasmussen poll showed Herseth leading Lawrence Diedrich 49% to 47%. Herseth won 53% to 46%.

A WRS poll shows client Mike Lee well-positioned in the upcoming June 22nd US Senate primary in Utah.

Here is the release from the campaign:

June 11, 2010 – Alpine, Utah – In a recent poll conducted this past Tuesday night, Mike Lee, candidate for U.S. Senate, leads Tim Bridgewater by nine percentage points; 39% Lee, 30% Bridgewater, 31% Undecided.

Chris Wilson of Wilson Research Strategies (WRS), who fielded the survey, wrote, “As voters compare the two choices, they are choosing Mike Lee by nearly a double-digit margin.� He continued, “Lee is even stronger among those who know the most about the two candidates, including those who hold favorable opinions of both.�

A memorandum from WRS shows Mike Lee with an eleven point lead over Bridgewater with likely voters who think favorably of both candidates, which is a key measurement, especially in primary elections.

“I’m encouraged with the news, but by no means is the campaign letting up, with twelve days to go, there is still a lot of campaigning ahead as I share my plan to reign in spending, balance the budget and repeal Obama’s unconstitutional health care bill,â€� said Mike Lee.

Campaign Manager Jonathan Reid expounded on the Lee’s campaign current efforts, “The campaign is working hard, making thousands of calls each night reminding Utahns they can vote early. If you don’t know where to vote, check with your county clerk to find the closest early voting location.â€�

News of the poll has been picked up by Redstate and The Hill.

The WRS polling memo showing the results of the poll is available for download here.

from the PRIsm Political Report:

Following the defeat of party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter two weeks ago in Pennsylvania, northern Alabama Republican voters similarly rejected Rep. Parker Griffith who left the Democratic Party after being elected to the House in 2008.  Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks, despite being outspent by more than 4:1, easily defeated Griffith and avoided a run-off by claiming majority support within the Republican primary.  Brooks scored 51% of the vote to Griffith’s 33%.  Former Alabama Republican Party staff member Les Phillip claimed 16%.   Political consultant and former congressional aide Steve Raby easily won the Democratic nomination and must be considered a credible candidate in the general election since AL-5 has never elected a Republican to the House. 

 

Griffith’s home of Huntsville is the area largely responsible for turning him out.  While carrying the three small rural counties by huge majorities, Rep. Griffith could only manage 24% in the district’s most dominant county of Madison.  Brooks received 58% of the vote here, and it proved to be the difference in the race.  Brooks also racked up large percentages in the two counties adjoining Madison in the Huntsville metropolitan area.  Already during this primary season two incumbent US Senators have been denied re-nomination and a third could go down in the June 8^th run-off election.  Griffith is the second incumbent House member to lose.  Rep. Alan Mollohan was denied re-nomination in West Virginia earlier this month.

 

In the Governor’s race, the Democratic electorate was not kind to another US Congressman.  Despite leading in most polls, Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL-7) went down to a crushing 38-62% defeat to Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks.  Davis had moved significantly to the right during the current term in Congress, voting against such bills as healthcare reform and Cap & Trade.  Obviously trying to play to the general election voter composition, Davis’ strategy backfired as even African American organizations turned against him to endorse Sparks.  The Republican side is so close among three contenders that it is yet unclear as to who will move into the run-off election in July.  With about 100 precincts still to count, former Community College Chancellor Bradley Byrne had wrapped up one run-off slot with 28% of the vote.  State Rep. Robert Bentley and real estate developer Tim James, son of former Gov. Fob James, were separated by only a couple of hundred votes, each at 25%.  Former AL Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore finished a strong fourth with almost 21% of the vote. 

 

In other Alabama congressional races, Montgomery city Councilwoman Martha Roby just missed an outright win in the 2^nd district, garnering just over 49% of the vote.  She will face Tea Party activist Rick Barber in the July 13 run-off.  The winner, presumably Roby, will face freshman Rep. Bobby Bright in November.  This is one of the top GOP challenger races in the nation.  In Davis’ open 7^th district, a safe Democratic seat, attorney Terri Sewell and Jefferson County Commissioner Sheila Smoot will advance to the run-off election.  The winner will claim the seat in November.  Sewell captured 37% of the vote to Smoot’s 29%.  State Rep. Earl Hilliard, Jr., whose father held the seat before losing to Davis, in 2002 placed third with 27%. 

 

In Mississippi, the most watched race of the night was the 1^st congressional district Republican primary.  State Sen. Alan Nunnelee claimed the nomination with a 52-33-15% victory over former Eupora Mayor Henry Ross and ex-Fox News analyst Angela McGowan.  Nunnelee will now face two-term Rep. Travis Childers in a seat that is normally a Republican strong hold.

 

The New Mexico Governor’s race now figures to be competitive as Dona Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez won a big 51-27-12-7% win over former state GOP chair Allen Weh, consultant Doug Turner, and attorney Pete Domenici, Jr.  Martinez will now oppose Lt. Gov. Diane Denish who was unchallenged for the Democratic nomination.  Gov. Bill Richardson is term-limited.