WRS is happy to post a guest post by Field Strategist Amelia T. Chasse.

Last week, Sen. Lindsey Graham predicted that the Tea Party movement would “die out� in the near future. Graham is probably keeping his fingers crossed that his prediction becomes reality before his 2012 re-election campaign, as the strength of Tea Party is creating difficulties for incumbents and political insiders like the South Carolina Senator. Take Graham’s close friend and Senate ally, John McCain, for example. Two years ago, the perennially popular Arizona Senator was the Republican nominee for President. Now, McCain is facing a difficult primary challenge in the form of Tea Party-backed J.D. Hayworth, who as been able to energize the state’s increasingly conservative base and successfully portray McCain as a spineless moderate.

Voters won’t decide McCain’s fate until August 24th, but the 2010 primary season has already seen its share of upset losses for political insiders. In April, Florida Governor Charlie Crist announced his withdrawal from the state’s Republican Senate primary to run as an Independent. The moderate Governor faced an almost certain loss to Tea Party-backed Marco Rubio, so he chose to opt out and take his chances as a third party candidate rather than suffer a humiliating primary defeat. The trend continued in the Kentucky Senate primary in May with activist Rand Paul’s insurgent victory over Secretary of State Trey Grayson.

Those who attributed Paul’s victory to a famous father and a conservative electorate got a wake up call on June 8th, when California voters nominated businesswomen Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman over former Congressman Tom Campbell and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner in the respective Senate and Gubernatorial primaries. The same day, Nevada and Maine, two states generally rife with moderate Republicans, both nominated Tea Partiers in key primaries contrary to the predictions of the most recent polls. In Nevada, activist Sharron Angle beat former State GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden to take on Sen. Harry Reid in November, and small town Mayor Paul LePage’s insurgent, below-the-radar campaign came out on top against well-known state Senator Peter Mills and two millionaire self-funders in the Pine Tree State’s gubernatorial primary.

The next major test of this emerging pattern could be the August 10th Colorado Senate primary, where activist Ken Buck seems poised to beat former Governor Jane Norton; a recent Survey USA poll has him up by sixteen points.

Many, like Sen. Graham, chalk up the strength of the Tea Party to the anger-fueled “throw the bums out� mentality that is gripping the GOP electorate in the wake of the Obama administration’s liberal policy initiatives. While that dynamic certainly plays a major role, it does not account for the fact that insiders aren’t the only candidates being defeated en masse by Tea Partiers. Businessmen candidates, whom many analysts predicted would be strong in 2010 due to the troubled economy, are also falling short when faced with conservative activist opponents. Several of the contests mentioned above included at least one competitive candidate running on private-sector business credentials. Las Vegas businessman Danny Tarkanian finished in third place in Nevada, and Maine’s LePage also defeated well-funded businessmen Les Otten and Bruce Poliquin.

California is an interesting exception, with two pragmatic former CEOs emerging as the GOP nominees for Senate and Governor. Whitman did not have a Tea Party challenger in her race, but Fiorina took on activist Chuck DeVore, who finished third. A possible explanation is that, historically, only moderate Republicans have been able to get elected in the Golden State, leading GOP voters to be more strategic about their choices. Additionally, California’s notoriously expensive media market requires candidates to be extremely well-funded to be competitive, and both Fiorina and Whitman were able to pour millions of their own money into their primary bids, which their competitors could not match.

The lesson to be drawn from California is that the Tea Party draws its strength from right-wing grassroots activism and candidates who excel at retail politics, and thus is at its least effective in states that trend moderate and rely heavily on the wholesale politics of paid media. However, even in those states, the electorate is still choosing political outsiders.

With the 2010 election season about to go into full swing, these primary races provide an opportunity to take the temperature of likely voters, which aids political analysts in predicting the outcome of the races ahead, and candidates in refining their messages to appeal to the electorate. At the very least, the GOP primaries to date have made it clear that the Tea Party will play a major role in this election cycle, so pundits may want to revise their earlier assessments about the legitimacy and effectiveness of the movement, and incumbents and insider candidates may want to reconsider running on past experience, and pivot to talk about what they will do for the future.

Amelia Chasse can be reached at atchasse@gmail.com.

Job Creation at Best Level of Year, but Federal Hiring Creates Distortions

Gallup’s Job Creation Index, a separate measure of the job market based on the self-reports of working Americans concerning their employers, was at +8 in June — its highest level since October 2008. Twenty-nine percent of employees last month reported that their employers are hiring, while 21% said their employers are letting people go.

As Gallup has reported, hiring reports vary between government and nongovernment workers, and by level of government as employer. Specifically, a higher percentage of federal employees than of state and local employees or nongovernment workers reported that their employers were hiring in June. However, federal employees were more likely in June than in May to report that people were being let go — probably as temporary census workers were finishing up. As a result, the Job Creation Index was higher for the nongovernment sector last month than for the federal government — a major change from April and May.

Statistical analysis based on Gallup’s underemployment rate and Job Creation Index suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday morning will report a June unemployment rate in the 9.5% to 9.7% range, depending on the seasonal adjustments and size of the workforce. This contrasts with the consensus expectation of a slight increase in the U.S. unemployment rate, to 9.8%.

Of course, the jobs situation is somewhat muddied by the recent hiring and then letting go of several hundred thousand new, temporary census workers. Gallup Daily tracking data seem to be picking up, at least in part, this hiring and then departure of these temporary federal employees during recent months. However, Gallup’s Job Creation Index reflects only the percentage of employers hiring and firing, but does not attempt to measure the magnitude of such hiring and firing.

In this regard, ADP reported Wednesday that private-sector jobs grew by just 13,000 in June — far less than the markets expected, and bad news for an already shaky stock market. The increase in jobless claims on Thursday added to the negative jobs picture. Further, Gallup’s job creation data suggest that state and local governments continue to let go far more employees than they are currently hiring. So, it is possible that the unemployment rate would decline on Friday while job growth (based on the establishment survey), excluding federal census takers, could be anemic — somewhat similar to what happened in May.

Whatever the government reports on Friday, the nation needs to increase its focus on private-sector job creation — and include not only the unemployed but also the underemployed. Despite perceptions of a poor job market, the percentage of underemployed Americans who are hopeful that they will find work in the next four weeks now stands at 42%.

In the latest Gallup survey, results show that more Americans identify themselves as politically conservative more so today than in the last 18 years.  Gallup has been tracking this trend for over two decades - see their charts below:

Seven in 10 Republicans continue to call themselves conservative, similar to 2009, while most of the remaining Republicans identify as moderate. Since 2002, however, the percentage conservative has increased by 10 points.

Independents today are slightly more likely to say they are moderate than conservative, with fewer than 20% identifying as liberal. While this is similar to 2009, it represents an increase in conservatism among this group since 2008.

Bottom Line

The ideological orientation of Americans seen thus far in 2010 would represent a record-high level of conservatism (since at least 1992) if it is maintained for the full year. This follows an increase in the percentage of conservatives in 2009 that was fueled by heightened conservatism among independents, a pattern that continues today.

See below an interesting chart on President Obama’s approval rating regarding his handling of the gulf oil spill.  The data reflects an average of all publically released survey results on the matter.

New Gallup data released this morning shows that the enthusiasm of voters identifying themselves as Republican is significantly higher than it was in 1994 when the GOP won dozens of seats to take control of Congress.

Enthusiasm is directly linked to turn-out.  The more enthusiastic an electorate, the more likely they are to vote.  In this case, Republicans are most likely to vote party-line giving the GOP a boost at the ballot boxes in November.  This phenomenon will flip a number of swing-districts back to Republicans, but is it enough to give the GOP enough wins to take back Congress?

While Democratic voters are less enthusiastic than their Republican counterparts, the lack of interest is not as low as it was in 1994.  One could argue that this is enough Democratic interest to be competitive.  However, the Republicans maintain a 15-point lead in enthusiasm this year (59% - 44%) and only a 10-point lead (42% - 32%) in 1994.  So, this lead could make the difference.  But, will it be enough?

Republicans must still run strong races.  That requires raising money, running strong ads, targeting swing populations, and getting their people to the polls.  The enthusiasm boost will help bring in more money and allow Victory operations to spend less to get people out to the polls, but we shouldn’t take for granted that Republicans will automatically turn-out.

New data covering some of the key races around the country is hitting the public domain.  Here are the latest seven:

 

CA-Sen:  Cross Target for Pajamas Media (6/13; 600 likely CA voters)

 

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D)      47%

Carly Fiorina (R)                  47%

 

This is a small-sample poll, but certainly in range with other released data.  Most of those, however, show Sen. Boxer with a slight lead.

 

CA-Gov:

 

Jerry Brown (D)                  46%

Meg Whitman (R)               43%

 

Cross Target also tested the Governor’s race and likewise came away with similar results to other more established firms.

 

IL-Sen:  Public Policy Polling (6/12-13; 552 likely IL voters)

 

Alexi Giannoulias (D)           31%

Mark Kirk (R)                         30%

LeAlan Jones (Green)          14%

 

The flap over Kirk’s military record has certainly cost him.  The respondents view both Giannoulias and Kirk with a poor 23:31 personal favorability ratio.  The big mover is Green Party candidate Jones.  It remains to be seen if the Independent’s double-digit showing will hold.

 

LA-Sen:  (Magellan Strategies for the Vitter campaign; 6/10-13; 1,030 likely LA voters)

 

Sen. David Vitter (R)            51%

Charlie Melancon (D)           31%

 

Approval over handling Gulf oil spill:

 

President Obama:                31% approve; 60% disapprove

Gov. Jindal:                            66% approve; 21% disapprove

 

Vitter is looking strong is this poll, but another one (Public Policy Polling) soon to be released, apparently shows the race to be within high single-digits.  Obviously, President Obama and Gov. Jindal are viewed completely differently in the context of grading their responses to the Gulf oil spill. Additionally, the polling sample overwhelmingly still supports off-shore drilling - 72-15% in favor of continuing to explore in the Gulf.

 

NC-8:  (Public Policy Polling - 6/10-13; 400 likely NC-8 voters)

 

Rep. Larry Kissell (D)           48%

Tim D’Annunzio (R)               26%

 

Rep. Larry Kissell (D)           41%

Harold Johnson (R)               35%

 

Rep. Larry Kissell (D)           40%

Harold Johnson (R)               30%

Wendell Fant (I)                     14%

 

Both sides are in chaos.  The Republicans have a difficult run-off to settle on June 22nd, with the entire GOP leadership supporting, and raising funds for, Johnson.  The SEIU, unhappy with Kissell’s vote against the healthcare legislation, filed 34,000 signature petitions for former Kissell staff member Fant, who hasn’t confirmed that he will run.  He is likely to qualify for the ballot since the valid signature requirement is only 17,000.

Election 2010: South Dakota House of Representatives

South Dakota House: Primary Victory Bounces Noem (R) Into Lead Over Herseth-Sandlin (D)

Monday, June 14, 2010

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_house_of_representatives_election/south_dakota/election_2010_south_dakota_house_of_representatives

When challengers take on an incumbent member of Congress, they almost always get a bounce in the polls following a victory in a contested primary. That appears to be the case in South Dakota following State Representative Kristi Noem’s Republican Primary victory last Tuesday which earns her the right to challenge Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey, conducted two nights after the primary, finds Noem attracting 53% of the vote, while Herseth-Sandlin earns just 41%. Just five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate or are undecided.

Prior to the primary, the incumbent held a three-point advantage over Noem. In April, Noem trailed by 15 points. It remains to be seen whether the bounce reflects a temporary aberration or signals a lasting change in the race.

Incumbents who poll below 50% are considered potentially vulnerable, and Herseth-Sandlin has been below that mark all year. However, incumbents have many benefits that can help them finish strong in an election season. In 2008, Rasmussen Reports showed two GOP senators, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina, as potentially vulnerable following the selection of their primary opponents. McConnell ended up winning reelection with 53% of the vote, while Dole went down to defeat.

Herseth-Sandlin, who was reelected with 67% of the vote in 2008, helped lay the groundwork for a fall campaign by voting against the president’s health care bill earlier this year. Sixty-six percent (66%) of South Dakota voters favor repeal of that law. That’s a bit higher than the national support for repeal.

Noem earns 75% support from those voters who Strongly Favor repeal of the health care bill. Herseth-Sandlin gets 75% of the vote of those who are Strongly Opposed.

This statewide telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters in South Dakota was conducted on June 10, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Noem leads by more than 20 points among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Twenty-six percent (26%) of all South Dakota voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Herseth-Sandlin, who has been the state’s sole member of the House since June 2004. Seventeen percent (17%) view her Very Unfavorably. Both figures are up three percentage points since the primary.

Noem is viewed Very Favorably by 34%, way up from 19% before her primary victory. Only seven percent (7%) currently have a Very Unfavorable view of the GOP nominee.

At this stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of South Dakota voters consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, while 58% do not.

Noem wins 82% of the Tea Party vote. Herseth-Sandlin leads 55% to 38% among those who are not affiliated with the Tea Party.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of South Dakota voters say the Tea Party movement is good for the nation, but 27% think it’s bad for the country.

Herseth-Sandlin can’t count on a lot of help from her party leader. Just 40% of South Dakota voters approve of the way that Barack Obama is handling his role as president. That’s below the national level of approval as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In South Dakota, Rasmussen Reports projected that McCain would defeat Obama by a 53% to 44% margin. McCain won 53% to 45%. In that same year, the final Rasmussen poll showed Senator Tim Johnson with a 54% to38% lead over Joel Dykstra. Johnson won 62% to 38%.

In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the first to show John Thune ahead of Tom Daschle. The final Rasmussen poll showed Thune winning 49% to 46%. Thune won 51% to 49%. Also in 2004, the final Rasmussen poll showed Herseth leading Lawrence Diedrich 49% to 47%. Herseth won 53% to 46%.

A WRS poll shows client Mike Lee well-positioned in the upcoming June 22nd US Senate primary in Utah.

Here is the release from the campaign:

June 11, 2010 – Alpine, Utah – In a recent poll conducted this past Tuesday night, Mike Lee, candidate for U.S. Senate, leads Tim Bridgewater by nine percentage points; 39% Lee, 30% Bridgewater, 31% Undecided.

Chris Wilson of Wilson Research Strategies (WRS), who fielded the survey, wrote, “As voters compare the two choices, they are choosing Mike Lee by nearly a double-digit margin.� He continued, “Lee is even stronger among those who know the most about the two candidates, including those who hold favorable opinions of both.�

A memorandum from WRS shows Mike Lee with an eleven point lead over Bridgewater with likely voters who think favorably of both candidates, which is a key measurement, especially in primary elections.

“I’m encouraged with the news, but by no means is the campaign letting up, with twelve days to go, there is still a lot of campaigning ahead as I share my plan to reign in spending, balance the budget and repeal Obama’s unconstitutional health care bill,â€� said Mike Lee.

Campaign Manager Jonathan Reid expounded on the Lee’s campaign current efforts, “The campaign is working hard, making thousands of calls each night reminding Utahns they can vote early. If you don’t know where to vote, check with your county clerk to find the closest early voting location.â€�

News of the poll has been picked up by Redstate and The Hill.

The WRS polling memo showing the results of the poll is available for download here.

Congratulations to WRS clients Joe Heck in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional district and Steve Womack in Arkansas’ 3rd Congressional district for their victories last night. 

Dr. Joe Heck cruised in the NV-3, garnering 70% of the Republican primary vote.  He will face first term Congresswoman Dina Titus, in what will be one of the closest watching Congressional races in the country this cycle. 

A WRS poll taken March 24th - 25th had Heck topping Titus 40%-35% in a survey of 400 likely 2010 general election voters.  The race has been rated a TOSS UP by political prognosticators and Dr. Heck boasts a very compelling narrative compared to Titus, who has been a pawn of the current Democrat leadership.

After taking first place in the Arkansas primary on May 18th, Steve Womack won the Republican nomination for the 3rd Congressional district in yesterday’s runoff election by a 52% - 48% margin.  The Cook Partisan Voting Index for Arkansas’ 3rd Congressional district is R+16 and Womack faces nominal opposition from the Democrats.  Steve Womack will be the next Congressman from AR-3, replacing US Senate Candidate John Boozman.

Great article from pollster.com on the rapid increase of cell phone-only households and the problems pollsters are having with this group.  WRS utilizes the RBS (Registration Based Sampling) technique, which makes it easier to capture cell-phone only voters either through their voter registration or through a subsequent phone-match.