from the PRIsm Political Report

 

 

New Statewide Polls

New statewide polls have been released for Senate and Governor in nine different states during the past few days:

 

 

CA-Gov:   (Research 2000; 3/8-10; 600 likely CA voters)

 

Jerry Brown (D)                     45%

Meg Whitman (R)                  41%

 

Jerry Brown (D)                     48%

Steve Poizner (R)                  33%

 

Meg Whitman (R)                  52%

Steve Poizner (R)                  19%

 

Former eBay CEO Whitman is highly competitive against Brown in a very Democratic state.  Favorability ratios: Brown 52:40%; Whitman 51:35%; Poizner 37:40%

 

CA-Sen:   (Research 2000; 3/8-10; 600 likely CA voters)

 

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D)       47%

Tom Campbell (R)                43%

 

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D)       49%

Carly Fiorina (R)                    40%

 

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D)       49%

Chuck DeVore (R)                39%

 

Tom Campbell (R)                33%

Carly Fiorina (R)                    24%

Chuck DeVore (R)                  7%

 

Sen. Boxer continues to show weakness against even unknown Republicans like Assemblyman DeVore.  This is a race to watch.

 

CO-Sen:   (Public Policy Polling; 3/5-8; 580 likely CO voters)

 

Sen. Michael Bennet (D)      43%

Jane Norton (R)                     43%

 

Sen. Michael Bennet (D)      45%

Tom Wiens (R)                      37%

 

Sen. Michael Bennet (D)      46%

Ken Buck (R)                         36%

 

Andrew Romanoff (D)           44%

Jane Norton (R)                     39%

 

Andrew Romanoff (D)           44%

Tom Wiens (R)                      36%

 

Andrew Romanoff (D)           45%

Ken Buck (R)                         34%

 

his PPP poll shows Bennet to be in stronger position than other pollsters, but confirms recent data showing Democrat ex-Speaker of the House Andrew Romanoff polling better against all Republican candidates than appointed incumbent Bennet.

 

FL-Gov:  (Public Policy Polling; 3/5-8; 849 likely FL voters)

 

Bill McCollum (R)                  44%

Alex Sink (D)                         31%

 

Gov. Charlie Crist (R)           47%

Alex Sink (D)                         27%

 

PPP confirms other polls showing AG McCollum stretching his lead over FL CFO Sink to double-digits.  Gov. Crist, if he were to run against Sink for re-election instead of for Senate, has an even greater lead than McCollum.

 

LA-Sen:   (Rasmussen Reports; 3/10; 500 likely LA voters)

 

Sen. David Vitter (R)            53%

Charlie Melancon (D)           35%

 

Pres. Obama Job Approval:   37:62%

Gov. Jindal Job Approval:       68:32%

 

Sen. Vitter continues to poll very well against Rep. Melancon. 

 

MN-Gov:  (Rasmussen Reports; 3/10; 1,000 likely MN voters)

Mark Dayton (D)                               38%

 

Tom Emmer (R)                                35%

 

Tom Emmer (R)                                37%

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D)      34%

 

R.T Rybak (D)                                   38%

Tom Emmer (R)                                35%

 

Marty Seifert (R)                                39%

Mark Dayton (D)                                38%

 

Marty Seifert (R)                                39%

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D)      35%

 

R.T Rybak (D)                                   38%

Marty Seifert (R)                               38%

 

Twenty-eight Democrat Farm Labor, Republican, and Independent candidates have announced their indiviudal candidacies for Governor.  State Rep. Marty Seifert appears to be the strongest Republican.  Former US Sen. Mark Dayton and Minneapolis Mayor R.T Rybak are the top Democrats.

 

MO-Sen:   (Rasmussen Reports; 3/9; 500 likely MO voters)

 

Roy Blunt (R)                         47%

Robin Carnahan (D)             41%

 

Rep. Blunt continues to maintain a lead beyond the margin of error in this most politically even of states.  Favorability ratios: Blunt 56:37%; Carnahan 47:48%

 

NH-Gov:   (Rasmussen Reports; 3/8; 500 likely NH voters)

           

Gov. John Lynch (D)              51%

Jack Kimball (R)                    32%

 

Gov. John Lynch (D)              54%

Karen Testerman (R)            28%

 

Gov. John Lynch (D)             50%

John Stephen (R)                  35%

 

Gov. Lynch appears to be in strong shape for a fourth term.  Similar polling in the Senate race shows Republican leads, thus underscoring the Governor’s political strength.

 

PA-Sen:   (Research 2000; 3/8-10; 600 likely PA voters)

 

Sen. Arlen Specter (D)         47%

Pat Toomey (R)                     41%

 

Sen. Arlen Specter (D)         51%

Joe Sestak (D)                      32%

 

Pat Toomey (R)                     42%

Joe Sestak (D)                      39%

 

This poll confirms recent data showing Sen. Specter with increased strength against both ex-Rep. Toomey and Rep. Sestak

 

WI-Sen:   (Wisconsin Policy Research Institute; 3/7-9; 600 likely WI voters)

 

Tommy Thompson (R)          51%

Sen. Russ Feingold (D)        39%

 

This poll provides further data that ex-Gov. Thompson would run strong against Sen. Feingold.  Reports say Thompson is close to forming a Senatorial exploratory committee

In what will be one of the most watched Governor’s races in the nation this election year, Republicans are in prime position to covert a Democrat-held seat.  Recent statistics from the Department of Labor show that Michigan holds the highest unemployment rate of any State in the country and voter discontent with the current economic conditions are hanging around the neck of current Democrat Governor Jennifer Granholm based on her approval ratings. 

With a clear picture of voters hungry for a solid economic recovery plan from each of the candidates, current Oakland County Sherriff Mike Bouchard released details of his “Economic Rebound Plan” that highlights positions for the current state government to make it easier for businesses to hire workers in Michigan. 

Independent polling for the Republican primary race in Michigan shows that “undecided” is the leader, leaving the door wide open for each candidate to demonstrate to the electorate that they are the right candidate to lead Michigan back to a path of recovery. 

A recent statewide survey showed that 55% of Michigan voters believe that ‘improving the economy/creating jobs’ is the most important issue that the State must solve.  With this issue being the single most important factor in how a voter will cast their vote, expect the other candidates in the race to follow Bouchard’s lead in releasing their individual economic plans.  The candidate who positions them self as the best person to lead Michigan out of economic turmoil will ultimately prevail in the GOP primary, as well as the general election in November. 

Congressional Democrats, already reeling from dismal approval ratings, have a big problem on their hands: now “former” Congressman Eric Massa.

As one Congressional aide put it -

from the PRIsm Political Report:

 Texas Primary Results

Republicans and Democrats went to the polls yesterday to select their nominees for the fall races.  Gov. Rick Perry, running away with the race in the final laps of the campaign appears to have won renomination outright against US Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Wharton County GOP chair Debra Medina.  Perry captured 51.0% of the vote to Hutchison’s 30.4%.  Medina placed third with 18.6%.  Run-offs in Texas occur if no candidate receives 50% plus one vote.

 

The victory was huge for Perry, as he won nomination for a third full term as the Lone Star State’s chief executive.  He also finished George W. Bush’s final term as Governor, ascending to the top post from his post as Lt. Governor.  He is already the longest-serving Governor in the history of Texas, and will be a heavy favorite to win re-election in November in what is shaping up to be a strong Republican year in America’s second largest state. 

 

The results reflected a monumental collapse for Hutchison, who began the race early last year with a big lead over the Governor.  Her on again-off again resignation from the Senate, a lack of issues focus in her advertising, poorly delivered attacks on Perry for his failed Trans-Texas Corridor project, and highlighting her endorsements from liberal newspapers to one of the most conservative voting electorates in the country cumulatively proved to be a highly flawed campaign strategy, despite the presence of Bush advisor Karl Rove as one of her top consultants.  The endorsement of former President George H.W. Bush, ex-VP Dick Cheney, and most of the Republican congressional delegation also did little to help her. 

 

Perry successfully labeled Hutchison as a Washington insider who had lost touch with the people back home.  He lambasted her support of the Bush-Obama financial bail-out legislation, coining the nickname Kay “Bail-out” Hutchison.  Perry moved hard right, playing to the primary electorate, by claiming that President Obama was “punishing” Texas, and even mused that succession from the US might be a subject people would begin addressing if the federal government continued along its current path. 

 

The Governor now faces former Houston Mayor Bill White in the general election.  White easily won the Democratic nomination, notching 76.5% of the vote in a field of weak candidates.  It appears that under 5% of the registered voters will have participated in the Democratic primary when all of the votes are finalized.  White’s total vote of approximately 450,000, representing ¾ of the total Dem ballots cast, is still more than 250,000 votes under Perry’s total, and he had just half of the Republican vote.  Total turnout will break 15% — over 2 million voters — which is a very large number for a Texas primary.  In 2006, for example, combined total turnout was only 1.1 million.

 

Though Washington, DC was completely rejected in the Governor’s race, the members of the congressional delegation facing primary challenges all did very well.  For Republicans, Reps. Ralph Hall (57%), Kevin Brady (79%), Michael McCaul (82%), Mike Conaway (77%), Kay Granger (70%), Ron Paul (81%), Lamar Smith (81%), Kenny Marchant (84%), Michael Burgess (86%), John Carter (90%), and Pete Sessions (84%) all cruised to easy victories.

 

On the Democratic side, Reps. Ruben Hinojosa (85%), Sheila Jackson Lee (67%, though the vast majority of votes in this district remain uncounted), and Ciro Rodriguez (83%) likewise won comfortably. 

 

In races that could potentially become competitive in the general election, the 17^th district of Rep. Chet Edwards (D) and against Rodriguez in the 23^rd, run-offs will be held on April 13 to finally determine nominees in those two seats.  2008 nominee Rob Curnock (29%) and businessman Bill Flores (33%) will square-off for the right to face Edwards.  This race could quickly move into the toss-up category.  Former CIA officer Will Hurd (34%) and businessman Quico Canseco (32%) will duel in the Rodriguez seat.  The Congressman will be a decided favorite in the general election.

The public still down on Obamacare (via Resurgent Republic)…

• By 52 to 39, Americans oppose President Obama’s handling of health care. Newsweek Survey, 2/17-18.

• By a 49 to 42 percent margin, Americans oppose the health care reforms proposed by President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Gallup Survey, 2/23.

• Should Senate Democrats use reconciliation to pass health care reform, they would be at odds with a majority of Americans, 52 to 39 percent. Independents agree, 53 to 38 percent. Gallup Survey, 2/23.

This week in a National Journal interview, political prognosticator Charlie Cook views Republicans, “…on a trajectory,” to winning back the House of Representatives.

Cook: I’ve spent the last couple of days talking to some of the brightest Democrats in the party that are not in the White House. And it’s very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don’t lose the House. It’s very hard. Are the seats there right this second? No. But we’re on a trajectory on the House turning over….

In Nevada Senate news, the PRIsm Political Report give this analysis on recent survey results for embattled Majority Leader Harry Reid:

Liberal Poll: Reid’s Worst Numbers

 

Research 2000, the Maryland-based national polling firm who surveys the electorate for liberal organizations and newspapers, just completed a Nevada poll that reveals disastrous results for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.  The survey, for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC), was taken over February 9-10 and interviewed 600 likely Nevada voters.

 

While Reid has routinely trailed the two top Republican candidates, former state GOP chair Sue Lowden and ex-Secretary of State candidate Danny Tarkanian — son of the legendary University of Nevada at Las Vegas basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian — this new data, commissioned by a source group friendly to Reid, is revealing leads for both Lowden and Tarkanian are well into double-digits.

 

Against Lowden, Reid trails 39-53% and has a huge 36-60% deficit among male voters.  The former Republican chair, 1973 Miss America contestant, and casino owner enjoys a 46-42% advantage among females.  Lowden is attracting 88% support among Republicans when paired with the Majority Leader, 20% from Democrats, and leads the all-important Independent category 58-32%.  Tarkanian’s numbers are similar.  He tops Reid 54-40% in the overall vote count; has the same 60-36% whopping advantage among men; and leads with women 48-44%.  He gets 89% support from Republicans; 21% among Democrats; and Independents split 59-34% in his favor.

 

Not surprisingly, Reid’s best support group is African American voters, where he clears 73% against both Republicans.  He also does well with Obama voters, which certainly stands to reason.  Of the respondents claiming they voted for Mr. Obama in 2008, Reid keeps 56%, but even within this sub-group, a full third (32% for Tarkanian; 34% pledging to Lowden) are saying they will vote Republican for Senate. 

 

By a margin of 53-29%, the respondents believe President Obama and the Democrats in Washington have not delivered on their campaign promise to “change” America.  The healthcare numbers, in fact the purpose for which the PCCC sanctioned the poll, are quite disparate.  Overall, by a margin of 34-58%, the respondents oppose the healthcare bill that was before the Senate.  Conversely, the split is 56-38% in favor of the federal government offering the choice to buy into a government-administered health insurance plan that would compete with the private sector.  They also would look more favorably upon Reid if he could pass such a plan (34-15% more likely to support).

 

Though the Majority Leader’s numbers are poor, and reminiscent of former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine’s political position in early 2009 - a situation he never succeeded in reversing - there are some parts of the set-up equation that do play to his favor and don’t rule out a come back. 

Nevada has officially recognized the Tea Party as a statewide political entity.  This means the Tea Party has the right to field candidates for office and will likely nominate a U.S. Senate standard bearer.  If the race tightens, which is likely, the Nevada Tea Party’s candidate will presumably take votes away from the eventual Republican nominee, especially if it is Lowden, who many in the Tea Party movement term a “Republican in Name Only (RINO)”.  Secondly, Reid’s overwhelming ability to command campaign resources will certainly dwarf the Republican campaign dollar effort, but in a high profile race such as this, individual candidate and outside group spending becomes a bit less important.  Third, Nevada has been trending Democratic in the past few elections, meaning the state’s political and demographic trends are more beneficial to Reid and his party than the Republicans.

 

Another negative, however, concerns Reid’s own son.  Rory Reid is a Clark County (Las Vegas) Commissioner who is openly talking about running for Governor.  Though Republican incumbent Jim Gibbons is in deep political trouble, it is more likely that not he will be defeated in the GOP primary, assuming he even runs for re-election.  Any other Republican will be stronger against the Democrats, meaning the fact that both Harry and Rory Reid will be on the ballot could then become troublesome for both men.  Candidate filing closes on March 12^th, so the younger Reid has only several weeks to officially enter the race.  The Nevada primary is June 8^th. 

 

Well this was a shocker.  Mitt Romney has won it the last two years.  The top five candidates were as follows:

Ron Paul - 31%
Mitt Romney - 22%
Sarah Palin - 7%
Tim Pawlenty - 6%
Mike Pence - 5%

This is an amazing result. Libertarians have certainly become a force to be reckoned with within the conservative movement and the Republican party.

That being said, as it was announced that Ron Paul won the straw poll, the ballroom was filled with boos which drowned out the cheers from Paul supporters. While he may have won first with 31%, a lot of the 69% who did not vote for him aren’t fans. It’s too bad that CPAC did not include an image of Ron Paul among the questions on the survey, as it would be interesting to see what percent of CPAC attendees view him favorably versus unfavorably. Sitting here in the room, it definitely felt like the majority of the crowd was very disappointed in the result of the straw poll.

The full results are available here

2,395 votes were cast through 1pm Friday afternoon.  50 states plus DC represented in the voting.

When Sarah Palin resigned from being Alaska’s Governor, we opined that she was not yet dead politically.

However, in the seven months since announcing her resignation she has not been able to improve her image nationally:

ABC News/Washington Post Poll. Feb. 4-8, 2010. N=1,004 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.5:

“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Sarah Palin?”
2/4-8/10            37%Fav      55%Unfav     8%Unsure
11/12-15/09      43%Fav      52%Unfav     5%Unsure
7/15-18/09        40%Fav      53%Unfav     7%Unsure
9/27-29/08        51%Fav      40%Unfav     9%Unsure

In fact, her image is so damaged that a majority of her own party find her not qualified to serve as President:

“Regardless of whether or not you’d vote for her, do you think Palin is or is not qualified to serve as president?”

26% - Qualified
71% - Not
4% - Unsure

Democrats 6% Qualified   91% Not    3% Unsure
Independents   29%     67%      4%
Republicans      46%     52%      2%

Now, conservative columnist George Will begins to publicly nail the coffin lid shut with this piece:

Sarah Palin and the mutual loathing society

By George F. Will
Thursday, February 18, 2010; A17

The Republican presidential nominee, an Arizona senator, was a maverick, which was part of his charm. He spoke and acted impulsively, which was part of his problem. Voters thought his entertaining dimensions might be incompatible with presidential responsibilities. For example, he selected a running mate most Americans had never heard of and who had negligible experience pertinent to the presidency. This was 1964.

Barry Goldwater, whose seat John McCain occupies, chose to run with Bill Miller, a congressman from Lockport, N.Y., near Buffalo. Miller, Goldwater cheerfully explained, annoyed Lyndon Johnson. After the Goldwater-Miller ticket lost 44 states, Miller retired to Lockport, where he practiced law and lived in dignified anonymity until his death in 1983. Although he had served as an assistant prosecutor of Nazi war criminals at Nuremberg and spent seven terms in Congress, no one suggested he should be considered for the 1968 Republican presidential nomination.

Yet Sarah Palin, who with 17 months remaining in her single term as Alaska’s governor quit the only serious office she has ever held, is obsessively discussed as a possible candidate in 2012. Why? She is not going to be president and will not be the Republican nominee unless the party wants to lose at least 44 states.

Conservatives, who rightly respect markets as generally reliable gauges of consumer preferences, should notice that the political market is speaking clearly: The more attention Palin receives, the fewer Americans consider her presidential timber. The latest Post-ABC News poll shows that 71 percent of Americans — including 52 percent of Republicans — think she is not qualified to be president.

This is not her fault. She is what she is, and what she is merits no disdain. She is feisty and public-spirited, and millions of people vibrate like tuning forks to her rhetoric. When she was suddenly forced to take a walk on the highest wire in America’s political circus, she showed grit.

She also showed that grit is no substitute for seasoning. She has been subjected to such irrational vituperation — loathing largely born of snobbery — that she can be forgiven for seeking the balm of adulation from friendly audiences.

America, its luck exhausted, at last has a president from the academic culture, that grating blend of knowingness and unrealism. But the reaction against this must somewhat please him. That reaction is populism, a celebration of intellectual ordinariness. This is not a stance that will strengthen the Republican Party, which recently has become ruinously weak among highly educated whites. Besides, full-throated populism has not won a national election in 178 years, since Andrew Jackson was reelected in 1832.

After William Jennings Bryan’s defeat in 1908, his third as the Democrats’ presidential nominee, this prototypical populist said he felt like the man who, thrown out of a bar for a third time, dusted himself off and said, “I’m beginning to think those fellows don’t want me in there.” In 1992, Ross Perot, an only-in-America phenomenon — a billionaire populist — won 19 percent of the popular vote. But because of the winner-take-all allocation of electoral votes, he won none of those. In 1976, Jimmy Carter — peanut farmer; carried his own suitcase, imagine that — somewhat tapped America’s durable but shallow reservoir of populism. By 1980, ordinariness in high office had lost its allure.

In 1968, George Wallace, promising to toss the briefcases of pointy-headed intellectuals into the Potomac, won 46 electoral votes with 13.5 percent of the popular vote. He had the populist’s trifecta — a vivid personality, a regional base and a burning issue. Actually, he had three such issues — backlash against the civil rights revolution, social disintegration (urban riots, rising crime) and resentment of the progressive projects of Great Society social engineers (e.g., forced busing of other people’s children).

Populism has had as many incarnations as it has had provocations, but its constant ingredient has been resentment, and hence whininess. Populism does not wax in tranquil times; it is a cathartic response to serious problems. But it always wanes because it never seems serious as a solution.

Political nature abhors a vacuum, which is what often exists for a year or two in a party after it loses a presidential election. But today’s saturation journalism, mesmerized by presidential politics and ravenous for material, requires a steady stream of political novelties. In that role, Palin is united with the media in a relationship of mutual loathing. This is not her fault. But neither is it her validation.

While Palin may not be politically “dead,” her hopes of being viewed as a viable candidate for President are quickly fading away as she engages on extremely divisive issues and continues to makes outlandish statements.  She will certainly continue to be seen as a leader to some in the Republican party, but those desiring to see the Republicans put up a competitive opponent to Obama in 2012 can sleep a little better knowing that Palin’s chances are slipping away.

David Catanese of Politico had this as the title of his article yesterday.  Some key excerpts:

-[Sen. Evan Bayh's]departure now places 10 Democratic-held Senate seats at risk. If all are swept under by a November GOP wave, Republicans are back in control of the Senate.

-The situation in Arkansas continues to deteriorate

-Romanoff roughs up Bennet in Colorado

-A Gillibrand challenge jells in New York

-Third time’s a charm for Rossi in Washington ?

-Specter’s campaign trail vigor in Pennsylvania

Each of the races highlighted were seats the Democrats had no expectation of even being in-play this cycle.  With a new poll out showing 52% of Americans saying President Obama doesn’t deserve re-election, the situation continues to get worse for Democrats. 

As Catanese sums it up: “The lesson of the tumultuous past 45 days is that the contours of the political landscape can change in an instant — and a death, a retirement or a top candidate’s decision not to run can wreak havoc on the best laid political plans.”

New data out indicates that voters are beginning to sour on Obama as the generic Republican candidate is in a statistical tie with the President on a generic ballot.

The problem is not an issue with the Democratic base (although many of the wave voters will not turn out again), but Independents are sorry that the change they voted for was not necessarily the change they wanted:

Most Democratic voters and Republican voters plan to support their own party’s candidate for president in the 2012 election. Independents currently show a greater preference for the Republican candidate than for Obama, by 45% to 31%, though about one in four do not have an opinion.

Losing Independents by this margin during mid-terms is an indication of impeding losses by Democrats - especially the Republican-leaning seat they’ve picked up over the past two election cycles.

Will Republicans win enough seats to win back the house?  I’m not sure yet, but we will certainly win enough to make a stand on the rest of Obama’s legislation.  Regardless, Obama’s political strength is eroding.  Not just in this survey, but he was unable to motivate “wave” voters to turn out in Massachusetts, New Jersey and Virginia.

This is going to be a tough cycle for Democrats.