The 2008 Presidential Election saw an influx in the number of Millennial voters (voters born after 1982) getting involved in politics and voting at the polls. But how much of this will transfer into this year’s Midterm Elections, and how exactly will these voters decide which candidates and issues they want to support on the ballot. Analyzing the voting patterns of millennial voters has always been a specialty of mine—I conducted several papers and theses on the topic while in college. But further research demonstrates that these voters are constantly evolving, and it is important for campaigns to know how these voters think politically to win over their support now and in the future.

Internet killed the video star

Robert Putnam wrote in his book Bowling Alonethat Americans were living in a “weak ties� nation, where they were becoming isolated from their communities and apathetic towards politics. The last few years has brought a resurgence of a “strong ties� nation among millennial voters, however, largely as a result of the growth of the Internet and social networking. Facebook, MySpace and other similar websites have connected people, especially the younger generations, in an unprecedented fashion that IMs, telephones and emails could never achieve. Most campaigns have picked up on this, and have created Facebook profiles for them to disseminate information to the voters and create a community of volunteers to rely upon for grassroots efforts. The Pew Research Center reported in its February 2010 study on millennials that one in three (32%) have posted a message of some type on a social network in the past 24 hours and more than half (56%) have sent an email during that same timeframe. These numbers only further the case that the Internet is the best tool for reaching out to Millennial voters and will continue to be so as time passes, as the study found that the older voters got, the less likely they were to use the Internet and social networking sites.

Liberty, Equality, Fraternity

Millennial voters tend to be much more socially liberal than older voters. Just over half (52%) of them are pro-choice and 50% support gay marriage according to the same Pew study. The number of millennials who are pro-choice, however, is only slightly higher than that of older adults, as 48% of people between the ages of 30 and 64 are pro-choice. MIllennials are more liberal with respect to their support for gay marriage, as only 43% of Generation X-ers (ages 30-49) and 32% of Baby Boomers (ages 50-64) support gay marriage. A possible explanation for the fact that millennials are more open to gay marriage is that two-thirds (65%)of them say they have at least one friend or family member who is gay. Millennials are also much less religious overall, as only 37% of them actively participate in religious activities (including daily prayer) and one in three (31%) consider themselves to be unaffiliated with any religion.

It’s the economy, stupid

Overall, millennial voters tend to vote Democratic in general elections. The Pew study found that 51% plan to vote for the Democratic Congressional candidate in their district in November while only 37% plan to vote Republican. The number of who identify themselves as Republican/Lean Republican has also risen since 2007 from 30% to 35%, while the number of who identify themselves as Democrats/Lean Democrat has dropped by the same amount. Yet these voters are trending Republican, as only one in three (33%) planned to vote Republican in 2006.

A large part of this can be attributed to their preference for fiscal conservatism and the current state of the economy. In a study conducted by USA Todayin October of 2008, 50% of all Millennial voters said that the most important issue in deciding who to vote for that November was the economic crisis, and four in ten (39%) were most worried about the rise in unemployment. WRS polling over the past year has found that this is still true, as nearly all of our federal and statewide polls have demonstrated that this is the most important issue to them as well. This also explains to some degree why made up the largest chuck of “Paulites�—supporters of Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul in 2008 and potentially in 2012. Paul, and subsequently his son Rand—who is the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Kentucky this year—made a name for himself as being a libertarian Republican who advocates for a smaller government and less government regulation of the financial markets. They are also the most likely (44%) out of all generations to believe that the private businesses make a fair amount of profits and are not too powerful, further proving their capitalistic nature.

So what really matters to millennial voters?

Here at WRS we use a proprietary tool called the “Values Centered Issue Analysis� (or VCIA for short) that helps us have a better idea of the motivations and thought process of voters as they consider the most important issues to them in the upcoming elections. Looking specifically at the responses of voters 18-34 from studies conducted in a variety of Congressional Districts throughout the United States, we discovered that the economy and unemployment is still the largest concern to them and what they would like to see fixed first. Millennial voters want to see the economy improve because they are worried about their friends (and in some cases, themselves) who are unemployed and struggling to make ends meet, and how this is having a negative impact on their communities. They would like to see the economy improve so that they can have better financial futures as they start their families and enter middle-age. Millennial voters are also very concerned with the fact that they believe the Federal Government has failed them in recent years, and helped contribute to the current economic situation. Again this impacts their communities and thus, in their minds, having a government that works for them will not only improve the economy but restore prosperity to the country both in their minds and in the minds of the rest of the world.

What to say to Millennial Voters this Fall

Winning over Millennial voters in the polls is possible if campaigns focus on a few different things. First, the more a campaign connects with millennial voters through the Internet, the more likely they are to turn these voters into both supporters and volunteers. One note of caution is that they should not push a large focus on fundraising with these voters—considering the economic state of the country and the high numbers of unemployment among, the last thing a Millennial voter wants to hear from a candidate is “Would you be willing to donate to my campaign?� Republican candidates should also target the younger voter with a message about improving the economy and working to decrease the unemployment rate nationwide, as that is by far their biggest concern and the issue that will likely make or break their support for you in November. Reminding these voters that you would like to see the economy improve will also help them become more optimistic about their own individual lives and the lives of their families, friends and communities. And if all these steps are followed, the millennial vote should be winnable by the GOP in November.

As I argued on MSNBC this past weekend, the recent Time Poll (August 16-17, 2010, n=1,002 adults) clearly demonstrates that the issue Americans have with the “ground zero” Mosque has nothing to do with fear, or hate.  Instead, Americans that oppose the building believe that we should have greater respect and reverence for that hollowed ground.

This isn’t the first time that protests have broken out about religious encroachment into a sacred area:

Jewish protests against Christian symbols were increasing in 1998, and there was a new demand that the Catholic Church in the former SS administration building at Birkenau (Auschwitz) be removed because it is not appropriate at the place where over a million Jews perished in the gas chambers.

The Time Poll indicates that 61% “oppose the building of the Muslim community center and mosque near where the World Trade Center stood.”  This is the number referenced by numerous pundits and journalists for the past several days.  But, if any had bothered to look at the rest of the survey, they would see this:

What if the [muslim] religious group proposed building a community center and place of worship two blocks from your home?  Would you favor or oppose it…?
Favor        55%
Oppose    34%
Unsure     10%

The data above helps us connect the dots to the true motivation of opposition of the “ground zero” Mosque.  Overall, most of the people opposing the mosque believe that the area should be shown greater respect, but generally have no problem with the same complex being built elsewhere - including two blocks from their own home.

–Tyler Harber

A new interactive map page from Gallup ranks states by party identification and ideology….

Politico released a survey this morning that included an oversample of 227 “DC Elites.”  This gives us a unique ability to see how the elites stack up against the American public (represented by 1,011 adults - geographically and demographically representative of the nation at large).

First, let’s examine the demographics of both populations to give perspective to the results:

Gender
General Population (GP): 48% Male - 52% Female
Washington DC Elites (DCE): 40% Male - 60% Female

Age
GP:
18-34:  34%
35-54:  41%
55-74:  25%
DCE:
18-34:  29%
35-54:  38%
55-74:  33%

Income
GP:
<$35,000:  41%
$35,000-$74,999:  40%
$75,000-$149,999:  16%
$150,000+:  3%
DCE:
<$35,000:  0%
$35,000-$74,999:  1%
$75,000-$149,999:  54%
$150,000+:  45%

Ethnicity
GP:
White:  74%
Black/AA:  12%
Asian:  4%
Hispanic:  6%
Native American:  <1%
DCE:
White:  85%
Black/AA:  1%
Asian:  6%
Hispanic:  0%
Native American:  0%

Party Identification
GP:
Strong Dem: 14%
Lean Dem: 21%
Independent: 23%
Lean GOP: 18%
Strong GOP: 14%
DCE:
Strong Dem: 26%
Lean Dem: 25%
Independent: 19%
Lean GOP: 17%
Strong GOP:  9%

Overall, the DC Elite are older, richer, whiter and more Democratic than the general population.  The elite also happen to be more female.

Now, let’s examine the opinions of both groups…

Direction of the Country?
Right Direction: 27% GP - 49% DCE
Wrong Track:  61% GP - 45% DCE

Direction of Economy?
Right Direction: 24% GP - 44% DCE
Wrong Track:  65% GP - 46% DCE

How has the economic downturn affected you?
More than most Americans: 27% GP - 6% DCE
Less then most Americans: 24% GP - 74% DCE
About the same as others:  47% GP - 20% DCE

Do you think the political system in DC is broken?
Yes, Broken:  72% GP - 64% DCE
No, not Broken:  15% GP - 31% DCE

Most Important Issue Facing Country?
Economy/Jobs:  87% GP - 86% DCE
Education:  67% GP - 59% DCE
Healthcare:  65% GP - 64% DCE

How Favorable are you of…
Barack Obama:  25% GP - 36% DCE
Sarah Palin:  14% GP - 3% DCE
Nancy Pelosi:  5% GP - 12% DCE
John Boehner:  4% GP - 1% DCE
Harry Reid:  3% GP - 5% DCE

If election were held today for Congress, would you vote…
Democratic Candidate:  32% GP - 53% DCE
Republican Candidate:  31% GP - 26% DCE

Clearly, the DC Elites are very Democratic leaning in regards to their view of the economy, direction of the country and even showing partiality to Democratic leaders in Washington over their Republican counterparts.  The bottomline is that the DC Elite represent the party in power.  And, for the moment, that party is the Democrats.  Aside from being heavy with female respondents, I see no problem with the oversample’s representative nature.

While Elites are “a world apart,” according to the Politico, they are easily able to identify top issues shared by the general population.  However, the Elites are much more optimistic about the state of the economy primarily because they have been among the least affected.

It is remarkable to see that a majority of Elites agree with the general population that “the political system in DC is broken.”

Polls and anecdotal reports indicate heavy Democratic losses in November, but it isn’t because Americans have new found love for Republicans.  In fact, Americans have the least confidence in Republicans in Congress to make the right decisions for the country’s future leaving both Obama and Democrats in Congress better equipped to deal with our problems.  But, these same respondents say that they are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate in November.

What gives?!?

The bottomline is that Americans haven’t forgiven incumbent Republicans for a number of transgressions that allowed the Democrats to take control of Congress and the White House in the past four years.  But, the key word here is “incumbent.”  The nation is fatigued of incumbents, with only 25% of registered voters saying that they would re-elect their representative for Congress while 62% would “look around for someone else to vote for.”  This means Republican incumbents are as much at risk as their Democratic counterparts.  We have seen this vulnerability manifest itself through the defeat of a number of establishment-choice candidates in primaries to date.  We have also noted that Republicans are more negative than Democrats about their own members in Congress, but are setting records for enthusiasm for the November election.

So, why are Republican voters excited about November if they are angry at their own members in Congress?

Bad memories of years past help keep the Republican brand negative, but the potential to vote for a non-incumbent Republican candidate is attractive - not only to the Republican base, but also to Independent/unaffiliated voters.

The Tea Party movement has also helped boost enthusiasm and focus on non-incumbent Republican candidates by helping ignite a renewed sense of fiscal conservatism that fell by the wayside during the 2000s.  The Tea Party-fueled anger has been proven to be more of a frame of mind than an actual defection from the Republican party; however, this has helped oust or weaken moderate and establishment Republicans. At the center of the movement is a belief that the “rank and file” should be in control, not the party fat-cats.  This sentiment hurts the Republican brand internally as well as taint a number of incumbent members by the behavior of the party at-large in previous years despite their own personal records.

The renewed interest by the Republican rank and file could help the Grand Old Party take back Congress.  But whatever the outcome of November, I expect pressure for new leadership to be palpable.  However, we have seen that change for change’s sake is not always the best choice.

Recently released polling data indicates that Obama may no longer be helpful to Democratic candidates.  Sure he can still raise money, but President Obama is currently holding net negative ratings for a number of major issues facing candidates on the campaign trail:

Obama handling Economy
43 Favorable - 54 Unfavorable (was 50 fav - 49 unfav in June)

Obama handling Health Care
45 Favorable - 50 Unfavorable (was 49 fav - 49 unfav in June)

Obama handling Federal Budget Deficit
40 Favorable - 56 Unfavorable (largely unchanged from June)

Obama handling Regulation of Financial Industry
44 Favorable - 50 Unfavorable (was 48 fav - 48 unfav in April)

Those numbers aren’t great for the guy who is meant to give gravitas to candidates about key issues.  Furthermore, overall confidence in Obama is on the decline:

Confidence in Obama
43 Confident - 57 Not Confident (was 47 confident - 53 not confident in January)

The bottomline is that Obama can still raise money for Democratic candidates, but will have a hard time convincing the same “wave” voters that elected him to show up for his comrades.  This takes away the Democrat’s last weapon (positive power of a popular President).

Look for Democratic candidates in traditionally Republican districts to distance themselves and even refuse a visit from Obama in their districts.  The bad news just keeps on coming for our Democrat friends!

Great article from pollster.com on the rapid increase of cell phone-only households and the problems pollsters are having with this group.  WRS utilizes the RBS (Registration Based Sampling) technique, which makes it easier to capture cell-phone only voters either through their voter registration or through a subsequent phone-match.

From politico.com - the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the healthcare “overhaul” will be $115 billion more than original projections.

It’s never a good thing when government is expanding faster than the private sector, as a recent Gallup study show’s below:

Bottom Line

Gallup’s Job Creation Index clearly indicates that state and local governments are in the midst of significant downsizing, no doubt reflecting budgetary issues resulting from recessionary pressures on the tax (and other) revenue that funds these governments.

Hiring at the federal level has apparently to date escaped these same fiscal pressures. Indeed, the federal government appears to be significantly outpacing the private sector in terms of the relative number of jobs created.

How long this pattern will continue is difficult to project. The federal budget deficit is likely to become a prominent element of political debate in the months and years ahead, thus opening up the possibility of increased employment pressures at the federal level. At the moment, however, the federal government is one of the brightest spots in the nation’s hiring picture.