As the Democratic Congressional Leadership considers a number of options to pass the President’s health care reform, campaign challengers and third-party organizations prepare a number of attacks that weaken party members everyday (like this one).

It seems as Democrats are currently painted in a corner as they ponder failure or passage of the legislation through a parliamentary loophole (aka, without a real vote). From my perspective, the Dems are in a lose-lose-lose position.

First, Dems lose everyday health care reform is still alive. Dozens of Republican opponents (and even some conservative Democratic primary opponents) are campaigning that they would be the “no” vote. In virtually every competitive district in the nation, a majority of voters oppose the health care reform for a number of reasons. Even if the reform is passed, the benefits won’t start fast enough to put down the nay-sayers.

Second, Dems lose if they pass reform without a vote. Now that Republican Scott Brown holds the magical 60th vote in the Senate, Democrats are considering the use of a parliamentary loophole that would enact the legislation without a real vote. This serves to only rally the voters who strongly oppose the reform and excites a group of people hell-bent on ousting every Dem who allows passage in this way.

Finally, Democrats lose if they fail. Despite being the best option, failing to pass health care reform emboldens Republicans and renders the White House powerless and vulnerable for the 2012 elections.

There is no doubt that health care reform, no matter its fate, will be seen as a major reason for the coming Republican renewal.

The public still down on Obamacare (via Resurgent Republic)…

• By 52 to 39, Americans oppose President Obama’s handling of health care. Newsweek Survey, 2/17-18.

• By a 49 to 42 percent margin, Americans oppose the health care reforms proposed by President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Gallup Survey, 2/23.

• Should Senate Democrats use reconciliation to pass health care reform, they would be at odds with a majority of Americans, 52 to 39 percent. Independents agree, 53 to 38 percent. Gallup Survey, 2/23.

While we won’t know the effect on the public’s perception, the President’s Health Care Summit seems to have had an effect internally of further muddying the water for supporters of the would be health reform.

From the Politico:

Democrats wake up after Thursday’s health care summit staring down another deadline to get their bill done, exactly four weeks to Easter break.

They’ve blown through most every deadline before, so there’s no guarantee they won’t this time either. President Barack Obama didn’t help by leaving the door open to compromise with Republicans – even if it takes weeks.

So that means a party looking to emerge from the summit with a clear sense of the path forward instead find itself in the same old place – fighting the clock to finish health care, with an uncertain timeline, a complex legislative path and no idea if its leaders can muster the votes.

“We hope based upon this discussion that we can move forward, but move forward we will,â€� said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.).

But the truth is, the Democrats are no more certain of getting health care done after the summit than they were before. The seven-hour session did little to change the underlying dynamics of the debate.

The bottomline here is that the longer it takes, the less likely passage becomes.

When the Democrat Congress passed, and President Obama signed, the $787 Billion “stimulus� plan last year, was the American public really given an accurate idea of how their tax dollars would be spent?

As Michael Barone writes in The Washington Examiner, “One-third of last year’s $787 billion stimulus package was aid to state and local governments — an obvious attempt to bolster public-sector unions. And a successful one: While the private sector has lost 7 million jobs, the number of public-sector jobs has risen. The number of federal government jobs has been increasing by 10,000 a month, and the percentage of federal employees earning over $100,000 has jumped to 19 percent during the recession.â€�

Clearly, political payback was the end result of the first stimulus package.  Those who elected Barack Obama president and Nancy Pelosi speaker are enjoying the rising tides of public-sector union dues.  What remains to be seen is whether the public sector will get a better showing if Congress presses forward with a second stimulus this year?  While government bureaucracies – and their public sector unions – certainly benefited from last year’s “stimulus�, there are 7 million newly unemployed Americans, and their families, who likely no longer support the plan.

Interested readers may CLICK HERE to read Michael Barone’s article in its entirety.

Nothing can possibly compare to the devastation caused by the massive 7.0 temblor, or the ensuing catastrophe, which has struck Haiti.  While much of the world, including U.S. Marines (despite the objections of Hugo Chavez), struggle to save the missing and protect the survivors, a quaking of another sort is going on to Haiti’s north.

Here in the U.S., following the landmark GOP win of Scott Brown in the special election to fill the open U.S. Senate seat of the late-Ted Kennedy, the rumbling which began in Massachusetts can now be felt from coast to coast.  What follows is a brief synopsis:

…A report released yesterday, according to the AP, found that home sales in December had plummeted by 17% last month, the largest single drop in four decades.  Analysts were quick to place blame on a recent act passed by Congress extending the deadline for home buyers to take advantage of a tax credit, but less cheery is the equally-strong notion that sales for homes were down in December for the same reason retail sales were down for the holidays: America is still deeply mired in a recession.  With the unemployment rate holding around 10% and the outlook for new job creation grim, fewer families are making long-term purchases – while conversely, record numbers of homes continue to be foreclosed.

…According to a report out of Wisconsin, divorce is rapidly on the rise.  The culprit?  Once again, blame rests on the economy.  As Jeff Starck reports, “[I]n a recession, financial stress affects almost every marriage.�

…Every quarter, analysts and subscribers to Bloomberg are surveyed as to their opinions on economic and political issues.  Among the noteworthy findings of the latest survey, 77% of respondents said they considered President Obama to be “too anti-business�.  Conversely, embattled Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke earned a 68% approval rating in the survey.

…Not surprisingly, President Obama’s approval ratings continue to suffer as a result of the ongoing economic turmoil.  According to Rasmussen’s latest tracking poll released yesterday, 25% of respondents strongly approved of the president’s job performance while 41% strongly disapproved, a “-16 score� on Rasmussen’s presidential index.

…Last but not least, President Obama isn’t the only politician on the hot seat.  Here in sunny Arizona, from where I report weekly, U.S. Senator John McCain appears to be drawing a noteworthy Republican primary challenger: conservative talk radio host and former congressman J.D. Hayworth.  In a state where Border Security ranks just behind the economy among issues important to the electorate, McCain has outraged many GOP voters with his steadfast support for legislation offering amnesty to illegal immigrants – as well as for his leadership on campaign finance reform and opposition to the Bush tax cuts.  Hayworth’s challenge will be to raise the resources to compete against McCain’s deep campaign coffers, but it may prove to be a surprisingly competitive race.

Anyone close, or far, from this campaign will have an opinion about what contributed to Scott Brown’s win tonight in Massachusetts.  The fact is that a number of things pushed voters to abandon their Democratic-leaning electoral history to elect the first Republican U.S. Senator from this state in more than 30 years.

First, the environment.  As I have mentioned over the past several months, voters are pissed off (pardon my bluntness).  They are angry at a government that is spending without consequence selling promises of better days ahead.  It has been my observation that voters are not accepting the amount of debt that the Democratic-led Congress is taking on in the name of economic stimulus without any measurable results.

Second, voters are offended at the entitlement argument.  They don’t like being told that something is already predetermined.  This is not “Kennedy’s seat,” nor is it a “Democratic seat.”  They especially hate when they are told that they don’t have a real voice in a decision they deserve to make.  This was the case tonight in Massachusetts.  Advertisements featuring various Kennedy family members were given thousands of gross rating points trying to convince voters that they dare not trade this seat to Republicans because of “temporary” frustrations regarding the country’s economic conditions.  But, these ads deepened the anger and were based on a set of falsehoods.  Kennedy faced several close races - most recently against Mitt Romney.   Senator Kennedy, while a true statesman, still didn’t attract the vote for a randomly nominated Democratic candidate based solely on his post-mortem endorsement.  This points to an electorate that is fatigued with a one-party system.  This also points to the natural ebb and flow of American politics.

Third, Coakley was outworked.  The Democratic machine thought that the only race they faced was the primary.  They didn’t think that a lowly state senator with minimal statewide name recognition would ever be competitive.  The failure of Coakley to campaign strongly until the last three weeks put them woefully behind.

Fourth, Brown was the man of the people.  Scott Brown campaigned in his truck, literally.  Until the last few weeks, the Brown campaign was a long-shot, small budget affair.  But, that didn’t stop them from working hard to push the message that Brown wasn’t the pre-ordained choice for this seat; instead, he was just another guy that, like them, worried about higher taxes, bills and the health and education of his children.  Independent voters ate this message up!  This is exactly what they wanted.

Finally, health care killed Coakley.  Everyone in Massachusetts has insurance coverage.  Scott Brown was able to convince many of these voters that a universal, federal government-run health care system would do nothing more than to tax them to pay for coverage of people in other states.  The recession helped drive home that message.

Brown’s win tonight is proof that voters are fed-up with the status quo.

A new poll commissioned by CBS News finds that President Obama is losing further ground among Americans on what has become the latest signature issue of his administration: health care.  According to the survey, completed January 10^th and released yesterday, just 36% of Americans approve of the president’s job on health care while 54% disapprove.

From the CBS analysis, this is a continued decline from last December when 42% of Americans approved, and last October when 47% of Americans approved.

Evidently, the devil’s in the details.  As more Americans continue to lose their jobs, lose their homes, lose their savings and feel increasingly skeptical about the future economic outlook, the prospect of the federal government creating a new trillion-dollar program guaranteed to raise taxes has left many (outside of Congress) reversing course.

Interested readers may CLICK HERE for more details on the poll.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Excuse the cliche’, but it is all too fitting for the Democrats current situation.  Longtime North Dakota Senator Byron Dorgan announced that he will not run for re-election, and hours later breaking news indicated that Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd will not seek re-election to his seat. 

Last week, we examined in this post why incumbent Democrats were not running for re-election or switching to the Republican party.  As tough votes loom over the pending health care bill, many of them realize in swing districts (or states) that they will not be able to face the voters for supporting very unpopular legislation.  Not running for re-election frees them up to vote for unpopular bills with no direct repercussions from the voters. 

How many more ‘retirements’ will we see from House and Senate Democrats in the upcoming weeks?

Let’s start off the new year with a little game.  Who among you, dear readers, can guess the speaker of the following quotation?

“The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies… Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that ‘the buck stops here.’ Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.â€�

If you answered then-Senator Barack Obama, you’d be right.  It came from a speech he gave in the Senate in March of 2006.

Fast forward almost four years.  Now-President Obama’s FY-2010 budget, according to the Republican Policy Committee in the Senate, “would make debt limit increases regular occurrences, as the projected annual deficit never gets below $730 billion (3.9 percent of GDP) in any year for the next ten years.�

This is likely just one of the leading factors behind Scott Rasmussen’s latest Presidential Tracking Poll, which found that just 26% of American voters strongly approve of President Obama’s job performance while 41% strongly disapproved.

As the unemployment rate continues to hover at or over 10% nationally, and Americans seem increasingly concerned that the only people not scrimping these days are in Congress and the White House, another factor weighing down the president’s ratings may be the continued decline in support for a massive new government health plan.  The less people have in their pockets, the more dismayed they become when Washington wants to tax and spend, especially when the amounts total hundreds of billions, or even trillions, of dollars.

Also according to Rasmussen’s latest, 52% of voters now oppose the health care plans proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats (up from 45% last June) while 42% favor them (down from 50% last June).

Since I moved to Arizona, I’ve been shocked to read each year at least one or two news reports about someone who drives their car over the edge of the Grand Canyon.  Typically, weather (snow, ice, rain, etc.) is a factor.  But still, it’s a pretty big canyon and most of us stay safely on the road.  Now, it’s 2010 – an election year.  Recent polling seems about as easy to analyze as the Grand Canyon is to see on a sunny day.  At some point, Democrats in Washington are going to run out of time to put on the brakes.

And, sadly, we’re going to be footing the bill.

We’ll file this blog post under the “ICYMI� (in case you missed it) category, and I’ll justify this all ahead of time by telling you that THIS ARTICLE (CLICK HERE) may have be my favorite from the WSJ for the year.

According to James Taranto in the Wall Street Journal, it wasn’t just President Obama and congressional Democrats who earned an “F for Effort� in 2009.  Sure, Taranto begins with a very strong look into the health care debacle currently bogged down in Congress (focused mostly on why liberals don’t like the bills they’re voting for).

But the Taranto piece continues onward after the health care section, becoming a year-in-review sort of op-ed, which I know we all love.  After all, who wants to let 2009 head into the history books without remembering, one last time, some of these precious moments from our beloved politicians and the oh-so-talented media:

…as when the AP ran a story with the following headline: “NFL to Ask Its Players to Donate Brains for Study“

…or this classic from FOX News: “Cat Found Glued to Minnesota Highway“

…which was only surpassed by the prowess of the investigative journalists at ABC News: “Hangover Impairs Judgment in Young Adults“

All these classics and more are just a click away right here.  Next week, I’ll be back with the latest, breaking news in the jobs/economy battle from Washington.

Until then, a very happy new year to one and all!

~Sean