Gallup tracking of 2010 midterm congressional election voting preferences shows 47% of registered voters saying they would vote for the Republican candidate and 44% for the Democratic candidate if the election were held today. Though down slightly from last week’s seven-percentage-point Republican lead, the GOP has held an advantage each of the past four weeks, the first time either party has done so this year.

The consistent Republican advantages are also notable from a historical perspective. In Gallup’s 60-year history of asking the generic ballot question, it is rare for the Republicans to be ahead among all registered voters. In fact, last week’s seven-point lead is the largest Gallup has measured for the Republican Party at any point in a midterm election year.

Even in two of the strongest Republican years — 1994 and 2002 — Democrats led or were tied in the final pre-election poll among registered voters. Republicans, however, led in those polls once turnout was factored in using Gallup’s likely voter model, which correctly forecasted that more voters would cast ballots for Republican than Democratic candidates. (Gallup will begin to provide likely voter estimates for the 2010 vote in October.)

Republicans usually make gains in their share of the vote after the likely voter model is applied, and generally hold an advantage in actual voter turnout in midterm elections, so a Republican advantage among all registered voters is an ominous sign for the Democrats’ prospects.

There are signs voter turnout in 2010 is not likely to go against historical patterns, with 46% of Republicans and 23% of Democrats saying they are “very enthusiastic” about voting this year. Republicans have led in reported enthusiasm throughout the year, and the current figures are tied for the largest enthusiasm gap by party this year.

Republicans’ relatively stronger showing on the generic ballot throughout August is due in part to Republican gains in party affiliation and a slightly higher level of support for Republican candidates among independent voters, as detailed in last week’s update.

In addition, though party loyalty in terms of voting is high on both sides, in August there are signs of slight but notable changes. So far this month, 96% of Republican registered voters say they would vote for the Republican candidate, exceeding Republicans’ party loyalty for any prior month. At the same time, the percentage of Democratic registered voters preferring the Democratic candidate — 91% — matches the monthly low for either party to date.

Bottom Line

Gallup’s generic ballot for Congress, which has been an accurate predictor of the national vote for the U.S. House in past midterm elections, continues to suggest 2010 will be a good year for the Republicans. The consistent Republican advantages among all registered voters in recent weeks are unusual from a historical perspective. Though a swing in the Democratic Party’s favor cannot be ruled out, voting patterns observed in the generic ballot in a given midterm election year generally hold throughout that year

Murray Re-nominated, but Under 50%

The unusual Washington State primary is actually one of the best pre-general election polls available.  With all of the candidates placed on one ballot and voters having only one choice per office, the primary results are often a strong predictor for the upcoming November election.  The 2010 mid-term is now just eleven weeks away.

 

 

Sen. Patty Murray (D) easily won the Democratic nomination last night, but will likely finish with under 50% of the total vote.  With the state’s mail election system that allows ballots to be post-marked on Election Day, it takes several days, if not a full week, to complete the count.  With about 59% of the vote tabulated, and only half of huge King County reporting, Murray attracted 46% of the total vote.  King County, which houses the Seattle metropolitan area, is heavily Democratic so Murray’s total could rise by a point or so.

 

Republican former gubernatorial nominee and businessman Dino Rossi won the GOP nomination getting 34% in what is often termed the “jungle” primary.  Ex-professional football player Clint Didier was second in the GOP column with 12%.  Total turnout, thus far in the counting, shows approximately 475,000 Republican votes and 460,000 Democratic.  This will likely change substantially when all of King County reports.  Still, only breaking even in primary turnout in a state the Democrats dominate could mean that the Senate race and at least two congressional races will be highly competitive in the general election.

 

Turning to the US House, all incumbents broke the 50% mark with the exception of 2^nd district Rep. Rick Larsen and 8^th district incumbent Dave Reichert.  In the open 3^rd district (Rep. Brian Baird retiring), former state House Majority Leader Denny Heck (D) placed first with 32%, followed closely by Republican state Rep. Jaime Herrera’s 27%.  The total 3^rd district turnout count, at this tabulation point, shows the Republicans attracting over 63,000 cumulative votes to the Democrats’ 53,000.  Sixty-nine percent of the precincts have been counted in this race.  WA-3 is a marginal seat, so this open district will be hotly contested in November.

 

The surprise of the night was in the 2^nd district.  Rep. Larsen, originally elected in 2000, will clearly face his toughest re-election contest as he scored only 43% of the vote with 69% counted.  The Republican nominee will be Snohomish County Commissioner and former state Rep. John Koster who notched 41% of the vote.  Koster was Larsen’s first congressional opponent when the 2^nd district was last open and held the Congressman to a 50-46% victory in that year.  Though this current campaign has attracted little in the way of national attention, the closeness of the jungle primary suggests that WA-2 will rapidly move up the national target lists.  So far, turnout favors the Democrats by about 7,000 votes.

 

Closer to Seattle, GOP Rep. Reichert, always in a tough race in this marginal seat, scored 48% of the vote last night but easily outdistanced his Democratic opponent Suzan DelBene’s 26%.  Total Republican turnout exceeded the Democrats’ by about 18,000 participants with just over half the precincts tabulated.

 

Wyoming also held a primary election last night.  The Republicans featured a tight three-way gubernatorial race that could be headed to a recount.  Former US Attorney Matt Mead appears to have won the GOP nomination attracting 29% of the vote to state Auditor Rita Meyer’s 28% and former state Agriculture Department director Ron Micheli scoring 26%.  Colin Simpson, the state House Speaker and son of former Sen. Alan Simpson, managed only 16%.  It is likely that Mead will hold onto the nomination and be elected Governor in November.  Republicans swamped Democrats in terms of turnout.  More than 105,000 people voted in the GOP primary versus just 14,000 who chose the Democratic ballot.  Former state Democratic Party chair Leslie Petersen was an easy winner last night, but the general election is not expected to be competitive.  Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal is term-limited and was ineligible to seek a third term.

 

GALLUP -

Presidents above 50% lose average of 14 House seats in midterm elections

from the PRIsm Political Report:

 

Oklahomans went to the polls to choose nominees last night and the Democratic race for Governor proved to be an unexpected nail-biter with a surprise winner.  Despite late polling showing Attorney General Drew Edmondson with double-digit leads over Lt. Gov. Jari Askins, it was she who pulled out about a 1,500 vote victory.  The race was close all night, and Askins withstood an Edmondson onslaught from Tulsa where he racked up 62% of the vote.  Askins was consistently in the low 50s throughout the rest of the state.

 

On the Republican side, Rep. Mary Fallin (R-OK-5), as expected, won her nomination outright, scoring 55% of the vote against three other candidates.  Fallin and Askins will now square off in the general election for the right to succeed term-limited Gov. Brad Henry (D).  The Republican Congresswoman begins the race as the favorite.

 

In the Democratic race for US Senate, retired educator Jim Rogers won the right to face Sen. Tom Coburn this fall.  Coburn is rated a safe bet for re-election.

 

In the House races, all incumbents were re-nominated and cruise through easy re-election campaigns.  In the open 5^th district, college professor James Lankford surprised everyone by placing first in the Republican primary with 34% of the vote against former state Rep. Kevin Calvey, who was always believed to be strong enough to qualify for the second ballot.  Calvey finished a close second with 32%.  The August 24^th GOP run-off will be anybody’s game, but the winner will have the inside track to a November victory, as OK-5 is a solid Republican seat.  On the Democratic side, attorney Billy Coyle was an easy winner and will face the victor of the Lankford-Calvey run-off. 

Raising eyebrows in federal campaign political circles, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has reserved some $28 million worth of television advertising time to support the re-election bids of 40 incumbent Democratic Members of Congress and the Democratic nominee in Kansas’ Third Congressional District. While the reservation of advertising time is not necessarily an indication of what the DCCC will actually spend in advertising in each of these congressional districts, the reservations are a possible indication of DCCC’s level of concern about their prospects of holding these seats in November.

 

 

Of interest is the fact that the list of reservations only includes one open seat, so far (KS-3), and no seats currently held by House Republicans. Of the 41 seats in which reservations of advertising time have been placed, President Obama gained a majority of the vote in the 2008 election in 19 of those seats. In 26 of those seats, the Democratic nominee posted double-digit wins during the last election. In nine of those seats, the Democratic incumbent won with a margin or 20 percent or more.

 

 

(* Special election margins)

See below an exerpt from Jonathan Allen and John Bresnahan of Politico

Republicans’ Enthusiasm Lead Persists

Overall enthusiasm for voting in the 2010 midterm elections held steady in the latest weekly average, with 30% of registered voters saying they are very enthusiastic, although this is down from the higher enthusiasm levels of late March and April. Republicans continue to hold a significant edge on this potentially important indicator of voter turnout rates. The current 13 percentage-point GOP enthusiasm lead is similar to the average 17-point lead the party has held since March.

from the PRIsm Political Report:

Following the defeat of party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter two weeks ago in Pennsylvania, northern Alabama Republican voters similarly rejected Rep. Parker Griffith who left the Democratic Party after being elected to the House in 2008.  Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks, despite being outspent by more than 4:1, easily defeated Griffith and avoided a run-off by claiming majority support within the Republican primary.  Brooks scored 51% of the vote to Griffith’s 33%.  Former Alabama Republican Party staff member Les Phillip claimed 16%.   Political consultant and former congressional aide Steve Raby easily won the Democratic nomination and must be considered a credible candidate in the general election since AL-5 has never elected a Republican to the House. 

 

Griffith’s home of Huntsville is the area largely responsible for turning him out.  While carrying the three small rural counties by huge majorities, Rep. Griffith could only manage 24% in the district’s most dominant county of Madison.  Brooks received 58% of the vote here, and it proved to be the difference in the race.  Brooks also racked up large percentages in the two counties adjoining Madison in the Huntsville metropolitan area.  Already during this primary season two incumbent US Senators have been denied re-nomination and a third could go down in the June 8^th run-off election.  Griffith is the second incumbent House member to lose.  Rep. Alan Mollohan was denied re-nomination in West Virginia earlier this month.

 

In the Governor’s race, the Democratic electorate was not kind to another US Congressman.  Despite leading in most polls, Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL-7) went down to a crushing 38-62% defeat to Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks.  Davis had moved significantly to the right during the current term in Congress, voting against such bills as healthcare reform and Cap & Trade.  Obviously trying to play to the general election voter composition, Davis’ strategy backfired as even African American organizations turned against him to endorse Sparks.  The Republican side is so close among three contenders that it is yet unclear as to who will move into the run-off election in July.  With about 100 precincts still to count, former Community College Chancellor Bradley Byrne had wrapped up one run-off slot with 28% of the vote.  State Rep. Robert Bentley and real estate developer Tim James, son of former Gov. Fob James, were separated by only a couple of hundred votes, each at 25%.  Former AL Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore finished a strong fourth with almost 21% of the vote. 

 

In other Alabama congressional races, Montgomery city Councilwoman Martha Roby just missed an outright win in the 2^nd district, garnering just over 49% of the vote.  She will face Tea Party activist Rick Barber in the July 13 run-off.  The winner, presumably Roby, will face freshman Rep. Bobby Bright in November.  This is one of the top GOP challenger races in the nation.  In Davis’ open 7^th district, a safe Democratic seat, attorney Terri Sewell and Jefferson County Commissioner Sheila Smoot will advance to the run-off election.  The winner will claim the seat in November.  Sewell captured 37% of the vote to Smoot’s 29%.  State Rep. Earl Hilliard, Jr., whose father held the seat before losing to Davis, in 2002 placed third with 27%. 

 

In Mississippi, the most watched race of the night was the 1^st congressional district Republican primary.  State Sen. Alan Nunnelee claimed the nomination with a 52-33-15% victory over former Eupora Mayor Henry Ross and ex-Fox News analyst Angela McGowan.  Nunnelee will now face two-term Rep. Travis Childers in a seat that is normally a Republican strong hold.

 

The New Mexico Governor’s race now figures to be competitive as Dona Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez won a big 51-27-12-7% win over former state GOP chair Allen Weh, consultant Doug Turner, and attorney Pete Domenici, Jr.  Martinez will now oppose Lt. Gov. Diane Denish who was unchallenged for the Democratic nomination.  Gov. Bill Richardson is term-limited. 

 

 

 

Congratulations to State Representative Raul Labrador on his victory in yesterday’s GOP primary in Idaho’s 1st congressional district.  Labrador will now face freshman Democratic Rep. Walt Minnick, who is among the most vulnerable of incumbents this year.  

Idaho’s 1^st congressional district is strongly Republican - Obama ‘08: 36%; Bush ‘04: 69%.  Minnick was elected two years ago because then-freshman Rep. Bill Sali could not solidify the Republican base and went down to defeat in the strongest of Democratic years.