Congressional Democrats, already reeling from dismal approval ratings, have a big problem on their hands: now “former” Congressman Eric Massa.

As one Congressional aide put it -

from the PRIsm Political Report:

 Texas Primary Results

Republicans and Democrats went to the polls yesterday to select their nominees for the fall races.  Gov. Rick Perry, running away with the race in the final laps of the campaign appears to have won renomination outright against US Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Wharton County GOP chair Debra Medina.  Perry captured 51.0% of the vote to Hutchison’s 30.4%.  Medina placed third with 18.6%.  Run-offs in Texas occur if no candidate receives 50% plus one vote.

 

The victory was huge for Perry, as he won nomination for a third full term as the Lone Star State’s chief executive.  He also finished George W. Bush’s final term as Governor, ascending to the top post from his post as Lt. Governor.  He is already the longest-serving Governor in the history of Texas, and will be a heavy favorite to win re-election in November in what is shaping up to be a strong Republican year in America’s second largest state. 

 

The results reflected a monumental collapse for Hutchison, who began the race early last year with a big lead over the Governor.  Her on again-off again resignation from the Senate, a lack of issues focus in her advertising, poorly delivered attacks on Perry for his failed Trans-Texas Corridor project, and highlighting her endorsements from liberal newspapers to one of the most conservative voting electorates in the country cumulatively proved to be a highly flawed campaign strategy, despite the presence of Bush advisor Karl Rove as one of her top consultants.  The endorsement of former President George H.W. Bush, ex-VP Dick Cheney, and most of the Republican congressional delegation also did little to help her. 

 

Perry successfully labeled Hutchison as a Washington insider who had lost touch with the people back home.  He lambasted her support of the Bush-Obama financial bail-out legislation, coining the nickname Kay “Bail-out” Hutchison.  Perry moved hard right, playing to the primary electorate, by claiming that President Obama was “punishing” Texas, and even mused that succession from the US might be a subject people would begin addressing if the federal government continued along its current path. 

 

The Governor now faces former Houston Mayor Bill White in the general election.  White easily won the Democratic nomination, notching 76.5% of the vote in a field of weak candidates.  It appears that under 5% of the registered voters will have participated in the Democratic primary when all of the votes are finalized.  White’s total vote of approximately 450,000, representing ¾ of the total Dem ballots cast, is still more than 250,000 votes under Perry’s total, and he had just half of the Republican vote.  Total turnout will break 15% — over 2 million voters — which is a very large number for a Texas primary.  In 2006, for example, combined total turnout was only 1.1 million.

 

Though Washington, DC was completely rejected in the Governor’s race, the members of the congressional delegation facing primary challenges all did very well.  For Republicans, Reps. Ralph Hall (57%), Kevin Brady (79%), Michael McCaul (82%), Mike Conaway (77%), Kay Granger (70%), Ron Paul (81%), Lamar Smith (81%), Kenny Marchant (84%), Michael Burgess (86%), John Carter (90%), and Pete Sessions (84%) all cruised to easy victories.

 

On the Democratic side, Reps. Ruben Hinojosa (85%), Sheila Jackson Lee (67%, though the vast majority of votes in this district remain uncounted), and Ciro Rodriguez (83%) likewise won comfortably. 

 

In races that could potentially become competitive in the general election, the 17^th district of Rep. Chet Edwards (D) and against Rodriguez in the 23^rd, run-offs will be held on April 13 to finally determine nominees in those two seats.  2008 nominee Rob Curnock (29%) and businessman Bill Flores (33%) will square-off for the right to face Edwards.  This race could quickly move into the toss-up category.  Former CIA officer Will Hurd (34%) and businessman Quico Canseco (32%) will duel in the Rodriguez seat.  The Congressman will be a decided favorite in the general election.

One of the things that I find most amazing about the Republican victories this cycle is that they have generally come in the least likely of places. Who would have thought just a year ago that the voters of Massachusetts would elect a REPUBLICAN to replace Teddy Kennedy!

Yesterday, Republicans once again won in Democratic territory—this time in the Empire State. The New York Republican Assembly Campaign Committee (RACC) successfully won three of the four special elections in the New York City area despite a massive snowstorm keeping people away from the polls. We at Wilson Research Strategies are extremely proud of RACC and congratulate them on their successes, especially Assemblyman-elect Dean Murray’s victory in the 3rd Assembly District, whose polling we conducted on behalf of RACC.

One month ago, there was a lot of talk about how Scott Brown’s nearly flawless campaign (compared to the disaster that was Martha Coakley’s) was the main reason why he won. I’m not saying this wasn’t the case, but I think a lot had to do with the fact that our base is finally motivated again. And just how motivated…that is a question that we need to answer sooner rather than later.

Wilson Research Strategies recently conducted an Optimal Republican Voting Strength (ORVS) analysis of New York for RACC. ORVS analysis is a way of creating partisan strength on the local district level based upon past success in statewide races. In all three of the seats that Republicans won or held yesterday, the Republican Voting Strength (RVS) was at least 49%.

You are probably wondering what this all means now. Let’s start with Assembly District 3, which encompasses the towns of Brookhaven and Patchogue in Suffolk County. Voter turnout was lower than expected, but in the end Dean Murray had a 186-vote lead over Democrat Lauren Thoden. The RVS in this district is 52.5%, which means that it is a winnable seat with a solid campaign and a motivated electorate. And that is exactly what happened here yesterday.

The other two Republican wins yesterday only provide further evidence that the winds are blowing in our favor right now. On the other side of Long Island, Republican Michael Montesano won Assembly District 15 with 70% of the vote over Michael Meng to keep the seat in Republican hands. Turnout was so low in this district that it wasn’t even monitored by officials according to Newsday, the local paper. This Nassau County District has a RVS of 58.3%, but the percentage of the vote that Montesano won, compared to that of his predecessor (60%) in 2008 further demonstrates how motivated our base is. And if this weren’t enough evidence, the biggest upset yesterday occurred in Westchester County’s 89th Assembly District (RVS 49.2%), where Republican Robert J. Castelli defeated Peter B. Harkham 55%-45%. This seat, which includes the towns of Bedford, New Castle, and White Plains, has not only been in Democratic hands for decades but in 2008 the Republicans didn’t even put up a candidate! And yesterday, we won it.

These three victories are something we should be proud of. They occurred because Republicans ran solid campaigns in tough seats and turned out the vote. But to win more seats like this, we need to continue getting our voters energized and then find a way to keep them excited for another eight months. And if we can do that, the sky may be our only limit in future elections to come.

National Democrats continue to lose sitting Members of Congress and top-tier recruits.  Rep. Marion Berry’s (D-Ark.) retirement and Beau Biden’s (D) decision not to pursue the US Senate came after Democrats said they expected the opposite. And now the Democrat party, which has said it doesn’t expect lots of retirements, is facing the possibility of several more.

And in a short time span, Republicans have taken a slight lead over Democrats on the “generic ballot” question of which party one would support in their vote for Congress. 

Let’s take a quick look at the Republican-scenario for taking back the House of Representatives.  Currently, the House stands at 257 Democrats and 178 Republicans; thus Republicans would need a net gain of 40 seats to obtain a 1-seat majority. 

As of today, various election analysts have the Democrats pegged at 174 safe seats.  Another 35 districts are considered “likely Democrat,” while 25 lean their way.  That gives them an advantage in 234 seats; a clear majority, but 23 under their current number.  Due to Republican recruitment efforts and Democrats retirements, the “likely” and “lean” categories continue to dwindle and it isn’t because they are moving into the “safe” category.

Republicans are safe or likely winners in 163 districts.  Another 16 seats lean their way for a total of 179 - 1 seat MORE than they control today.

22 districts are considered in the “toss-up” category, in which no party has a clear advantage to date.  But the “toss-up” number also continues to grow in a way where “lean Democrat” seats continue to move into this category.  The Republicans will virtually have to convert all of these toss-up districts to have any chance at winning the majority and then go onto beat 17 Democratic incumbents.

House Republicans needs to segment their gain objectives into three categories.  First, they must realistically break the 200 mark needed to regain relevance in the body’s legislative process.  This would require a net gain of 23 seats and, considering the way the 2010 turnout model appears to be unfolding, such a goal is realistic.  Second, is to exceed the 210 barrier, thus almost attaining parity with the majority party.  Such a move would require a net gain of 33 seats; the more retirements occur, the more possible this scenario is.  Finally, winning a bare majority as we mentioned previously, would require a gain of 40 seats, but the Republicans would need to exceed even this number in order to have a working legislative majority.  Therefore, the party must realistically look beyond 43 seats.  With re-elect rates for incumbent Congressmen exceeding 93% even in tumultuous years (the incumbent re-elect rates in 2006 and 2008, for example, were 95.1% and 94%, respectively), the degree of difficulty for the GOP to reclaim the majority in this one upcoming election remains high, but not impossible.

Currently, Republicans feel a momentum switch because they sense a general negative reaction to the Democrats’ new policy direction.  The elections for the House of Representatives may give us the best read of the people’s mood, since all voters will have the chance to express themselves in their local congressional elections.  In fact, this is the precisely the reason the founding fathers gave Representatives two-year terms — to keep them closely aligned with the people they serve, and allow the electorate to quickly signal a response to new legislation.

from the PRIsm Political Report:

AZ-3: Shadegg Retirement Changes Governor’s Race

Two years ago, Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ-3) surprised almost everyone in and out of Congress by announcing that he would not seek re-election in 2008.  An outpouring of support and his Republican congressional colleagues’ petition campaign convinced him to change his mind and run for one more term.  Yesterday, Mr. Shadegg announced that, in fact, this is his final term in the House and he will retire at the end of the current Congress. 

 

With a likely Republican congressional seat now wide open in the Valley of the Sun, GOP potential candidates in particular, are sizing up their next move.  A great deal of media speculation pertains to state Treasurer Dean Martin who just recently announced a Republican primary challenge to Gov. Jan Brewer.  Many believe he will now switch out of the gubernatorial race and immediately organize a new campaign for Congress.  Before being elected statewide, Martin represented a state Senate district wholly within Shadegg’s 3^rd CD.

 

The attention being paid to Martin may be misplaced, however.  In fact, the person more likely to swing out of the Governor’s race and into a federal campaign is actually Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker.  According to sources intimately familiar with the Arizona political landscape, Martin is likely to stay in the Governor’s race for several reasons.  First, he has spent his whole career in state politics and has little desire to come to Washington.  Second, the timing of the Shadegg announcement may be somewhat politically driven as it comes directly on the heels of Martin formally declaring for Governor.  The Congressman’s longtime Arizona chief of staff, Sean Noble, is a potential candidate to replace his current boss and would view Martin as his toughest competitor, thus the Treasurer running for Governor benefits Noble and the Shadegg organization.  Third, Martin is in the best position of any Republican to deny Brewer the Republican nomination - remember, she ascended to the office when Janet Napolitano became Homeland Security Secretary so she has yet to be elected in her own right - so he is unlikely to abandon a campaign that he can conceivably win.

 

The crowded Governor’s race is a problem for both current challengers, Martin and Parker, in addition to self-funder with low name ID and several other minor candidates.  Arizona has a late primary (August 31^st) and no run-off, so it behooves both of the major candidates to isolate Brewer as much as possible.  As the sitting Governor, a crowded field requiring only a plurality of the vote favors Brewer despite her woeful job approval ratings.  Therefore, tacking to the congressional race makes the most political sense for Parker, who would clearly be a strong candidate in such a field.

  

The 3^rd district is fully contained within Maricopa County and contains some of the north Phoenix suburbs as well as the cities of Paradise Valley, Carefree, and Cave Creek.  The district is reliably Republican.  Favorite son presidential candidate John McCain scored 57% against President Obama in 2008; George W. Bush captured 58 and 55%, respectively, in his two presidential campaigns.  The seat was drawn to be safely Republican, but demographic changes in the Phoenix area have made the region slightly more competitive.  Shadegg’s 2008 win percentage dropped to 54-42%, and was just below 60% in 2006.  Previously, his elections finished closer to the 65% mark.  He becomes the 25^th current House member, and 14^th Republican, not to seek re-election.  Attorney Jon Hulburd, who claims to have already raised $300,000 for the race, has the inside track to the Democratic nomination.

WRS congratulates David Boutin on his win last night in the special primary election to fill a vacant State Senate seat in New Hampshire. Boutin defeated former state Rep Terry Pfaff and will now go on to challenge Democrat Jeff Goley in the special general election next month.

WRS is proud to be on Team Boutin and will continue to work hard getting him elected.

Just before Christmas, the Census Bureau released its annual growth projections.  While there were no big surprises about which states will gain or lose congressional seats, this data will provide a road map as to which states the national political parties and their non-party-affiliated allies will focus a unique portion of their attention in 2010.  Because reapportionment is handled by each individual state’s legislative process, expect the national party committees and their external forces to play in down-ballot state legislative races - not a usual place for them to devote resources.

The Electoral Data Services released their analysis on congressional reapportionment.  While the census has yet to be taken and the data is subject to change, each of the models in the EDS report that show population trend analysis give these states an additional congressional district: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Texas (who will gain at least 3 new seats). 

The states that are almost assuredly going to lose congressional districts are Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio (who is set to lose 2 seats). 

Other states on the watch list to potentially gain congressional seats are Oregon and Washington, while Missouri and Minnesota are states that could potentially lose a district. 

Because of the intense political and legislative maneuvering that goes into the reapportionment process, look for the above states to see increased resources from national party entities and their independent allies on the state-and-local front as we head into 2010. 

Much has been discussed among pundits, elected officials and consultants on which issues will drive the national debate leading into 2010.  For starters, there’s the pending health care vote in the US Senate, and while Senate Democrats and their House counterparts will continue to whip the votes necessary for their respective body’s final passage, public opinion isn’t on their side. 

While the health care vote(s) is an immediate snap shot about how the public views the role of government involvement on that specific issue, the major problem the Democrats are dealing with is the ECONOMY - JOBS - SPENDING issues.  A recent piece in The Hill gives a back-and-forth among experts who debate whether jobs or the deficit will be more of a driving issue.

After a post-election analysis of the New Jersey and Virginia victories by the GOP, it’s clear that independents, seniors and suburban voters broke toward the Republican candidates by decisive margins.  The reason: ECONOMY - JOBS - SPENDING.  While public opinion shows Americans can substantiate the different reasons behind each of issue, they equate them as a single issue: “Government is doing a bad job on the economy, thus the county is losing jobs, and we don’t trust the federal government’s continued spending of our hard earned dollars.”

The ECONOMY - JOBS - SPENDING issues will continue to be a force in districts and states with a high concentration of suburban and independent voters, as well as seniors.  The current health care debate will continue to force the Democrat-controlled Congress’ hand on how to deal with these issues.  The longer these issues stay in the forefront of voter’s minds, the better ammo the Republican candidates will have to contrast themselves to the national Democrat’s problems. 

Democrat strategist James Carville made the campaign slogan famous in 1992.  Last night, voters in New Jersey and Virginia (as well as numerous other states) echoed the decade-old catch phrase.  Carville’s response this year: “Well the Republicans were more gassed up tonight.”  Well put James.

The driving issues behind the 2009 election year:  JOBS - ECONOMY - SPENDING. 

For the first time in a long while, the elections of 2009 were truly about the issues.  There were no Mark Foley scandals and no “Macaca moments.”  The Democrats in Virginia attempted to distract voters from the issues by attacking now Gov-elect McDonnell on the college thesis nonsense, but looking at exit poll data tells us that strategy failed miserably and which issues stuck in the minds of voters.

New Jersey:

The Economy     31 percent
Property taxes   26 percent
Corruption         20 percent
Health care       18 percent

In Virginia:

The economy   46 percent
Health care      25 percent
Taxes              14 percent
Transportation    8 percent

Driving the Republican landslide of Virginia and the GOP victory in deep-blue New Jersey was the movement of independent voters into their corner.  Democrats did experience some erosion in their own camp among “soft” Democrats, but the self identified independent voters came through big for the Republican candidates.

New Jersey independent voters:

Chris Christie (R)   58 percent
Jon Corzine (D)      31percent

Virginia independent voters:

Bob McDonnell (R)   60 percent
Creigh Deeds (D)     35 percent

So what does the 2009 election results tell us?  It is a snapshot of the attitude of voters and will guide the political debate the next year.  One thing is clear: The trend of Democrat victories has been broken and independent voters moved heavily toward the GOP’s candidates.  This isn’t to say that these independent voters are now in the Republican column; they can be moved away.  But the JOBS - ECONOMY - SPENDING issues are favorable to Republicans and if the national debate is framed around them, Republicans stand to make major gains across the board in the 2010 midterms. 

from the PRIsm Political Report:

Both the Washington Post, through the TNS firm of Horsham, PA, (10/4-7; 1,001 certain VA voters) and Mason-Dixon Polling (10/5-7; 625 certain VA voters), for the Richmond Times-Dispatch, conducted highly publicized polls of the upcoming Virginia Governor’s race last week, but the down ballot and issue results may provide us with the most interesting conclusions.  Basically, both polls confirm that Republican Bob McDonnell has a lead beyond the margin of error, and that a GOP sweep of the three statewide offices is likely.
 
Below are the ballot test responses:
 
                                      
Governor:                      Post                Mason-Dixon
 
Bob McDonnell (R)        53                         48
Creigh Deeds (D)           44                         40      

Lt. Governor:
 
Bill Bolling (R)                49                         44
Jody Wagner (D)           40                         31
 
Attorney General:
 
Ken Cuccinelli (R)          49                         37
Steve Shannon (D)        40                         30
 
The fundamental responses and the intensity indicators confirm the ballot test numbers, especially for McDonnell.  The other candidates have lower name ID, suggesting that a ticket sweep based upon the results of the top office, which normally occurs in Virginia elections because of the off-year turnout model, is likely.  The Post ran the more extensive interview schedule, thus providing us more clues into what could be the viewed as the opinions of the average Old Dominion voter as this gubernatorial election enters its final three weeks. 
 
In terms of intensity, both candidates score well in terms of enthusiastic support among their voters.  Eighty-five percent say they are very or fairly enthusiastic about voting for McDonnell, whereas 79% say the same about Deeds.  A stark difference, however, is present among those who are “very enthusiastic”.  Thirty-five percent of McDonnell’s supporters rate their preference of him in this manner, versus just 20% for Deeds.  This is highly significant as it relates to the all-important turnout factor.
 
McDonnell seems to have overcome the flap about his controversial social issues thesis, written more than 20 years ago when he was a graduate student.  Though people are more aware that he crafted the document according to the Post poll (55% registering familiarity with the thesis issue versus 44% in September), McDonnell seems to have fended off the brunt of the attack.  Though Deeds is viewed as more favorable to women’s issues by a 47-41% margin, his lead over McDonnell on the issue of abortion is only 44-42%.  Deeds is taking a huge hit, however, over the negative tone of his campaign.  The respondents say, by a 46-30% margin, that Deeds is running the more negative campaign. 
 
The negativity of the Deeds campaign is further confirmed in other campaign tone questions, thus giving us another clue regarding turnout motivation.  By a margin of 60-32%, the voters believe McDonnell has run a positive campaign.  Conversely, the same respondents, on a 37-56% count, say Deeds’ effort is negative.
 
Several factors confirm that the candidates’ ballot test margins are probably accurate.  In looking at the issues and demographics, though the Post only shows a one-point Democratic edge, 31-30%, in party ID among the respondents, the answers to the issue questions, overlaid with their opinions of state and national Democratic leaders, makes the macro numbers consistent and credible.
 
In terms of issues, McDonnell is viewed more favorably on the economy and jobs, transportation, the state budget, education, gun control, healthcare, and taxes.  Deeds has the advantage only on issues of special concern to women and abortion.  Thus, the Democrat needs to improve his standing in many critical issue areas in a very short period of time.
 
The poll gains further credibility when looking at the approval ratings for Gov. Tim Kaine, President Barack Obama, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.  Though one could argue that the Republican cell is over-sampled, the ratings for the Democratic leaders do reflect national trends.  Kaine has a surprisingly favorable 60:37% ratio, especially when compared to other polls; Obama registers 53:46%, while Pelosi scores only 38:58%.