As widely reported, Republicans have taken an “unprecedented” 10-point lead in the generic congressional ballot.  With President Obama’s approval rating upside down and Congressional Democrats job rating taking a plunge, their message of a “Summer of Recovery” has failed.  One only has to look at Gallup’s consumer spending charts (below) and the consumer confidence index to see why the Democrat message has fallen flat.

Pundits are laughing at Biden’s latest quote about the upcoming election, but I think we should pay more attention to the idea behind it:

The reports of the death of the Democratic Party have been greatly exaggerated.  The day after the election there will be a Democratic majority in the House and a Democratic majority in the Senate. If it wasn’t illegal, I would make book on it.

Gallup points out that Republicans are much more enthusiastic, hold a 3-point lead on the generic ballot, and the Presidential approval rating is below 50%, all indicative of double-digit loses for Democrats in November.

While Biden may be overstating the Democrats’ strength, it is important that Republicans realize that this election is not yet “in the bag.”  Voters are clearly upset with Obama and Democrats, but recent polling suggests (pdf) that voters hold a very negative opinion of the Republican Party - worse than what they think about the Democratic Party.

Democratic Party
Positive   32%
Neutral  22%
Negative  44%

Republican Party
Positive  24%
Neutral  28%
Negative  46%

This means that voters aren’t going to be casting a vote for Republican candidates because they like the GOP.  Actually, swing and Independent voters will have to hold their nose to vote for a Republican.  The fact is that the GOP has done little to positively re-brand the Republican Party in a way that makes it attractive.  This makes our candidates just as vulnerable as the Democrats.  And we shouldn’t forget that no matter how many seats we win (or lose).

While many pundits think that the takeover of the US House is eminent, I am a bit more cautious.  We are seeing a lot of data that shows Republicans competitive in Dem-held seats.  But, with voters as upset with Republicans, we can’t take anything for granted.  We still have to run a superior race.  The seats that we are out-campaigned in, we will no doubt lose.

GALLUP -

Presidents above 50% lose average of 14 House seats in midterm elections

A new interactive map page from Gallup ranks states by party identification and ideology….

A recent survey by Quinnipiac presents us with more evidence that Americans are beginning to sour on President Obama.  Despite winning a number of key legislative victories, Americans clearly don’t want what Obama is selling.  Now, they are losing confidence in his ability to deal with the most important issue - the economy:

Handling Economy
39% Approve (was 44% in May 2010)
56% Disapprove (was 50% in May 2010)

Policies Hurt Economy  36% (was 32% in May 2010)
Policies Help Economy  41% (was 45% in May 2010)
Made no Difference  19%  (was 18% in May 2010)

Who do you trust to do a better job handling the economy?
Obama   41%
Republicans in Congress  42%
Unsure  17%

As a growing number of voters believe that Obama’s policies have actually hurt the economy, we are seeing a plurality choosing to trust a group (Republicans in Congress) that the public actually thinks less of than Obama to handle the fragile economy:

Republicans in Congress 36% favorable
Barack Obama 49% favorable

This is a disaster for Demcrats who were hoping that Obama could help them save their candidates in the upcoming fall elections.  With each passing day, Obama appears to be more and more of a liability for Democrats across the nation.  We are already hearing reports that Dem candidates in several swing districts are refusing to appear with the President at events.

Republicans seem to be ready to win big in November, but it certainly won’t be because our brand is good.  It seems like we may win in spite of ourselves this fall, especially with more and more bad news coming out about the RNC.

Gallup has released institution confidence results that show that Americans have very little confidence in Congress.  In fact, it is the lowest point on record:

Despite being at the bottom of the list, Congress did not have the largest drop from last year.  That honor belongs to “the presidency” who dropped 15 points from 51% confidence to 36% confidence in a single year.  That is more than double the movement of any other institution on the list.

The drop in confidence partners with one of the lowest approval rates in the past thirty years means that most Americans maintain strongly negative feelings for Congress.

Politico released a survey this morning that included an oversample of 227 “DC Elites.”  This gives us a unique ability to see how the elites stack up against the American public (represented by 1,011 adults - geographically and demographically representative of the nation at large).

First, let’s examine the demographics of both populations to give perspective to the results:

Gender
General Population (GP): 48% Male - 52% Female
Washington DC Elites (DCE): 40% Male - 60% Female

Age
GP:
18-34:  34%
35-54:  41%
55-74:  25%
DCE:
18-34:  29%
35-54:  38%
55-74:  33%

Income
GP:
<$35,000:  41%
$35,000-$74,999:  40%
$75,000-$149,999:  16%
$150,000+:  3%
DCE:
<$35,000:  0%
$35,000-$74,999:  1%
$75,000-$149,999:  54%
$150,000+:  45%

Ethnicity
GP:
White:  74%
Black/AA:  12%
Asian:  4%
Hispanic:  6%
Native American:  <1%
DCE:
White:  85%
Black/AA:  1%
Asian:  6%
Hispanic:  0%
Native American:  0%

Party Identification
GP:
Strong Dem: 14%
Lean Dem: 21%
Independent: 23%
Lean GOP: 18%
Strong GOP: 14%
DCE:
Strong Dem: 26%
Lean Dem: 25%
Independent: 19%
Lean GOP: 17%
Strong GOP:  9%

Overall, the DC Elite are older, richer, whiter and more Democratic than the general population.  The elite also happen to be more female.

Now, let’s examine the opinions of both groups…

Direction of the Country?
Right Direction: 27% GP - 49% DCE
Wrong Track:  61% GP - 45% DCE

Direction of Economy?
Right Direction: 24% GP - 44% DCE
Wrong Track:  65% GP - 46% DCE

How has the economic downturn affected you?
More than most Americans: 27% GP - 6% DCE
Less then most Americans: 24% GP - 74% DCE
About the same as others:  47% GP - 20% DCE

Do you think the political system in DC is broken?
Yes, Broken:  72% GP - 64% DCE
No, not Broken:  15% GP - 31% DCE

Most Important Issue Facing Country?
Economy/Jobs:  87% GP - 86% DCE
Education:  67% GP - 59% DCE
Healthcare:  65% GP - 64% DCE

How Favorable are you of…
Barack Obama:  25% GP - 36% DCE
Sarah Palin:  14% GP - 3% DCE
Nancy Pelosi:  5% GP - 12% DCE
John Boehner:  4% GP - 1% DCE
Harry Reid:  3% GP - 5% DCE

If election were held today for Congress, would you vote…
Democratic Candidate:  32% GP - 53% DCE
Republican Candidate:  31% GP - 26% DCE

Clearly, the DC Elites are very Democratic leaning in regards to their view of the economy, direction of the country and even showing partiality to Democratic leaders in Washington over their Republican counterparts.  The bottomline is that the DC Elite represent the party in power.  And, for the moment, that party is the Democrats.  Aside from being heavy with female respondents, I see no problem with the oversample’s representative nature.

While Elites are “a world apart,” according to the Politico, they are easily able to identify top issues shared by the general population.  However, the Elites are much more optimistic about the state of the economy primarily because they have been among the least affected.

It is remarkable to see that a majority of Elites agree with the general population that “the political system in DC is broken.”

Polls and anecdotal reports indicate heavy Democratic losses in November, but it isn’t because Americans have new found love for Republicans.  In fact, Americans have the least confidence in Republicans in Congress to make the right decisions for the country’s future leaving both Obama and Democrats in Congress better equipped to deal with our problems.  But, these same respondents say that they are more likely to vote for the Republican candidate in November.

What gives?!?

The bottomline is that Americans haven’t forgiven incumbent Republicans for a number of transgressions that allowed the Democrats to take control of Congress and the White House in the past four years.  But, the key word here is “incumbent.”  The nation is fatigued of incumbents, with only 25% of registered voters saying that they would re-elect their representative for Congress while 62% would “look around for someone else to vote for.”  This means Republican incumbents are as much at risk as their Democratic counterparts.  We have seen this vulnerability manifest itself through the defeat of a number of establishment-choice candidates in primaries to date.  We have also noted that Republicans are more negative than Democrats about their own members in Congress, but are setting records for enthusiasm for the November election.

So, why are Republican voters excited about November if they are angry at their own members in Congress?

Bad memories of years past help keep the Republican brand negative, but the potential to vote for a non-incumbent Republican candidate is attractive - not only to the Republican base, but also to Independent/unaffiliated voters.

The Tea Party movement has also helped boost enthusiasm and focus on non-incumbent Republican candidates by helping ignite a renewed sense of fiscal conservatism that fell by the wayside during the 2000s.  The Tea Party-fueled anger has been proven to be more of a frame of mind than an actual defection from the Republican party; however, this has helped oust or weaken moderate and establishment Republicans. At the center of the movement is a belief that the “rank and file” should be in control, not the party fat-cats.  This sentiment hurts the Republican brand internally as well as taint a number of incumbent members by the behavior of the party at-large in previous years despite their own personal records.

The renewed interest by the Republican rank and file could help the Grand Old Party take back Congress.  But whatever the outcome of November, I expect pressure for new leadership to be palpable.  However, we have seen that change for change’s sake is not always the best choice.

See below an exerpt from Jonathan Allen and John Bresnahan of Politico