In what will be one of the most watched Governor’s races in the nation this election year, Republicans are in prime position to covert a Democrat-held seat.  Recent statistics from the Department of Labor show that Michigan holds the highest unemployment rate of any State in the country and voter discontent with the current economic conditions are hanging around the neck of current Democrat Governor Jennifer Granholm based on her approval ratings. 

With a clear picture of voters hungry for a solid economic recovery plan from each of the candidates, current Oakland County Sherriff Mike Bouchard released details of his “Economic Rebound Plan” that highlights positions for the current state government to make it easier for businesses to hire workers in Michigan. 

Independent polling for the Republican primary race in Michigan shows that “undecided” is the leader, leaving the door wide open for each candidate to demonstrate to the electorate that they are the right candidate to lead Michigan back to a path of recovery. 

A recent statewide survey showed that 55% of Michigan voters believe that ‘improving the economy/creating jobs’ is the most important issue that the State must solve.  With this issue being the single most important factor in how a voter will cast their vote, expect the other candidates in the race to follow Bouchard’s lead in releasing their individual economic plans.  The candidate who positions them self as the best person to lead Michigan out of economic turmoil will ultimately prevail in the GOP primary, as well as the general election in November. 

Congressional Democrats, already reeling from dismal approval ratings, have a big problem on their hands: now “former” Congressman Eric Massa.

As one Congressional aide put it -

As the Democratic Congressional Leadership considers a number of options to pass the President’s health care reform, campaign challengers and third-party organizations prepare a number of attacks that weaken party members everyday (like this one).

It seems as Democrats are currently painted in a corner as they ponder failure or passage of the legislation through a parliamentary loophole (aka, without a real vote). From my perspective, the Dems are in a lose-lose-lose position.

First, Dems lose everyday health care reform is still alive. Dozens of Republican opponents (and even some conservative Democratic primary opponents) are campaigning that they would be the “no” vote. In virtually every competitive district in the nation, a majority of voters oppose the health care reform for a number of reasons. Even if the reform is passed, the benefits won’t start fast enough to put down the nay-sayers.

Second, Dems lose if they pass reform without a vote. Now that Republican Scott Brown holds the magical 60th vote in the Senate, Democrats are considering the use of a parliamentary loophole that would enact the legislation without a real vote. This serves to only rally the voters who strongly oppose the reform and excites a group of people hell-bent on ousting every Dem who allows passage in this way.

Finally, Democrats lose if they fail. Despite being the best option, failing to pass health care reform emboldens Republicans and renders the White House powerless and vulnerable for the 2012 elections.

There is no doubt that health care reform, no matter its fate, will be seen as a major reason for the coming Republican renewal.

from the PRIsm Political Report:

 Texas Primary Results

Republicans and Democrats went to the polls yesterday to select their nominees for the fall races.  Gov. Rick Perry, running away with the race in the final laps of the campaign appears to have won renomination outright against US Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Wharton County GOP chair Debra Medina.  Perry captured 51.0% of the vote to Hutchison’s 30.4%.  Medina placed third with 18.6%.  Run-offs in Texas occur if no candidate receives 50% plus one vote.

 

The victory was huge for Perry, as he won nomination for a third full term as the Lone Star State’s chief executive.  He also finished George W. Bush’s final term as Governor, ascending to the top post from his post as Lt. Governor.  He is already the longest-serving Governor in the history of Texas, and will be a heavy favorite to win re-election in November in what is shaping up to be a strong Republican year in America’s second largest state. 

 

The results reflected a monumental collapse for Hutchison, who began the race early last year with a big lead over the Governor.  Her on again-off again resignation from the Senate, a lack of issues focus in her advertising, poorly delivered attacks on Perry for his failed Trans-Texas Corridor project, and highlighting her endorsements from liberal newspapers to one of the most conservative voting electorates in the country cumulatively proved to be a highly flawed campaign strategy, despite the presence of Bush advisor Karl Rove as one of her top consultants.  The endorsement of former President George H.W. Bush, ex-VP Dick Cheney, and most of the Republican congressional delegation also did little to help her. 

 

Perry successfully labeled Hutchison as a Washington insider who had lost touch with the people back home.  He lambasted her support of the Bush-Obama financial bail-out legislation, coining the nickname Kay “Bail-out” Hutchison.  Perry moved hard right, playing to the primary electorate, by claiming that President Obama was “punishing” Texas, and even mused that succession from the US might be a subject people would begin addressing if the federal government continued along its current path. 

 

The Governor now faces former Houston Mayor Bill White in the general election.  White easily won the Democratic nomination, notching 76.5% of the vote in a field of weak candidates.  It appears that under 5% of the registered voters will have participated in the Democratic primary when all of the votes are finalized.  White’s total vote of approximately 450,000, representing ¾ of the total Dem ballots cast, is still more than 250,000 votes under Perry’s total, and he had just half of the Republican vote.  Total turnout will break 15% — over 2 million voters — which is a very large number for a Texas primary.  In 2006, for example, combined total turnout was only 1.1 million.

 

Though Washington, DC was completely rejected in the Governor’s race, the members of the congressional delegation facing primary challenges all did very well.  For Republicans, Reps. Ralph Hall (57%), Kevin Brady (79%), Michael McCaul (82%), Mike Conaway (77%), Kay Granger (70%), Ron Paul (81%), Lamar Smith (81%), Kenny Marchant (84%), Michael Burgess (86%), John Carter (90%), and Pete Sessions (84%) all cruised to easy victories.

 

On the Democratic side, Reps. Ruben Hinojosa (85%), Sheila Jackson Lee (67%, though the vast majority of votes in this district remain uncounted), and Ciro Rodriguez (83%) likewise won comfortably. 

 

In races that could potentially become competitive in the general election, the 17^th district of Rep. Chet Edwards (D) and against Rodriguez in the 23^rd, run-offs will be held on April 13 to finally determine nominees in those two seats.  2008 nominee Rob Curnock (29%) and businessman Bill Flores (33%) will square-off for the right to face Edwards.  This race could quickly move into the toss-up category.  Former CIA officer Will Hurd (34%) and businessman Quico Canseco (32%) will duel in the Rodriguez seat.  The Congressman will be a decided favorite in the general election.

With House Republicans poised to seek a floor vote to remove Rep. Charlie Rangel of his Chairmanship of the Ways & Means Committee, House Democrats in potentially competitive races will be in a tough situation in the wake of the Ethics Committee’s findings that House rules were broken.

The Hill’s Susan Crabtree writes on their tenuous situation.  Key excerpts below:

Reps. Betty Sutton (Ohio) and Harry Mitchell (Ariz.) have joined the ranks of Democrats calling for the New York Democrat to relinquish his gavel in the wake of the ethics committee finding that Rangel violated House rules.

There are now seven Democrats who have publicly called and/or voted to have Rangel give up his chairmanship: Reps. Bobby Bright (Ala.), Travis Childers (Miss.), Paul Hodes (N.H.), Mitchell, Mike Quigley (Ill.), Sutton and Gene Taylor (Miss.).

Meanwhile, Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) is giving money Rangel donated to his campaign to charity while Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.) is returning funds to the 79-year-old chairman.

In a release, Kirkpatrick said, “The bipartisan ethics committee has found that Congressman Rangel did not live up to the standards Members owe to their constituents with this matter and continues to look into other serious breaches. While I deeply respect his lifetime of service as a soldier and as a U.S. representative, I can no longer accept his support.�

According to CQ Money Line, other Democrats who have received funds from Rangel this cycle include Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.) and Reps. Dina Titus (Nev.), Eric Massa (N.Y.), Dan Maffei (N.Y.), Gary Peters (Mich.), Debbie Halvorson (Ill.) and Mike McMahon (N.Y.).

The ethics committee found that Rangel violated House gift rules when he accepted reimbursement for two trips to the Caribbean that were sponsored by corporations. House ethics rules Democrats passed in 2007 after they won the majority bar corporations that employ lobbyists from sponsoring travel that lasts more than one day.

This week in a National Journal interview, political prognosticator Charlie Cook views Republicans, “…on a trajectory,” to winning back the House of Representatives.

Cook: I’ve spent the last couple of days talking to some of the brightest Democrats in the party that are not in the White House. And it’s very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don’t lose the House. It’s very hard. Are the seats there right this second? No. But we’re on a trajectory on the House turning over….

In Nevada Senate news, the PRIsm Political Report give this analysis on recent survey results for embattled Majority Leader Harry Reid:

Liberal Poll: Reid’s Worst Numbers

 

Research 2000, the Maryland-based national polling firm who surveys the electorate for liberal organizations and newspapers, just completed a Nevada poll that reveals disastrous results for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.  The survey, for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC), was taken over February 9-10 and interviewed 600 likely Nevada voters.

 

While Reid has routinely trailed the two top Republican candidates, former state GOP chair Sue Lowden and ex-Secretary of State candidate Danny Tarkanian — son of the legendary University of Nevada at Las Vegas basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian — this new data, commissioned by a source group friendly to Reid, is revealing leads for both Lowden and Tarkanian are well into double-digits.

 

Against Lowden, Reid trails 39-53% and has a huge 36-60% deficit among male voters.  The former Republican chair, 1973 Miss America contestant, and casino owner enjoys a 46-42% advantage among females.  Lowden is attracting 88% support among Republicans when paired with the Majority Leader, 20% from Democrats, and leads the all-important Independent category 58-32%.  Tarkanian’s numbers are similar.  He tops Reid 54-40% in the overall vote count; has the same 60-36% whopping advantage among men; and leads with women 48-44%.  He gets 89% support from Republicans; 21% among Democrats; and Independents split 59-34% in his favor.

 

Not surprisingly, Reid’s best support group is African American voters, where he clears 73% against both Republicans.  He also does well with Obama voters, which certainly stands to reason.  Of the respondents claiming they voted for Mr. Obama in 2008, Reid keeps 56%, but even within this sub-group, a full third (32% for Tarkanian; 34% pledging to Lowden) are saying they will vote Republican for Senate. 

 

By a margin of 53-29%, the respondents believe President Obama and the Democrats in Washington have not delivered on their campaign promise to “change” America.  The healthcare numbers, in fact the purpose for which the PCCC sanctioned the poll, are quite disparate.  Overall, by a margin of 34-58%, the respondents oppose the healthcare bill that was before the Senate.  Conversely, the split is 56-38% in favor of the federal government offering the choice to buy into a government-administered health insurance plan that would compete with the private sector.  They also would look more favorably upon Reid if he could pass such a plan (34-15% more likely to support).

 

Though the Majority Leader’s numbers are poor, and reminiscent of former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine’s political position in early 2009 - a situation he never succeeded in reversing - there are some parts of the set-up equation that do play to his favor and don’t rule out a come back. 

Nevada has officially recognized the Tea Party as a statewide political entity.  This means the Tea Party has the right to field candidates for office and will likely nominate a U.S. Senate standard bearer.  If the race tightens, which is likely, the Nevada Tea Party’s candidate will presumably take votes away from the eventual Republican nominee, especially if it is Lowden, who many in the Tea Party movement term a “Republican in Name Only (RINO)”.  Secondly, Reid’s overwhelming ability to command campaign resources will certainly dwarf the Republican campaign dollar effort, but in a high profile race such as this, individual candidate and outside group spending becomes a bit less important.  Third, Nevada has been trending Democratic in the past few elections, meaning the state’s political and demographic trends are more beneficial to Reid and his party than the Republicans.

 

Another negative, however, concerns Reid’s own son.  Rory Reid is a Clark County (Las Vegas) Commissioner who is openly talking about running for Governor.  Though Republican incumbent Jim Gibbons is in deep political trouble, it is more likely that not he will be defeated in the GOP primary, assuming he even runs for re-election.  Any other Republican will be stronger against the Democrats, meaning the fact that both Harry and Rory Reid will be on the ballot could then become troublesome for both men.  Candidate filing closes on March 12^th, so the younger Reid has only several weeks to officially enter the race.  The Nevada primary is June 8^th. 

 

As Bayh announced his retirement, he offered advice to his Democratic peers.

“My advice to my fellow Democrats is the only way we can actually govern in this country is make common cause with the independents and moderates,” the Indiana centrist said during an appearance on MSNBC. “Sometimes half a loaf is better than none.”

Some pundits believe that the move allows Bayh to concentrate on building his bonafides for an eventual run for President.  But, others opin that his retirement was a way to preserve his power and image by not being beat by a former Senator during a year that Republicans retake seats across the nation.  Either way, losing solid party members is never good news to a party struggling to convince Americans that the Democrats are acting in their best interest.  This is going to be a long year for Dems at all levels.

David Catanese of Politico had this as the title of his article yesterday.  Some key excerpts:

-[Sen. Evan Bayh's]departure now places 10 Democratic-held Senate seats at risk. If all are swept under by a November GOP wave, Republicans are back in control of the Senate.

-The situation in Arkansas continues to deteriorate

-Romanoff roughs up Bennet in Colorado

-A Gillibrand challenge jells in New York

-Third time’s a charm for Rossi in Washington ?

-Specter’s campaign trail vigor in Pennsylvania

Each of the races highlighted were seats the Democrats had no expectation of even being in-play this cycle.  With a new poll out showing 52% of Americans saying President Obama doesn’t deserve re-election, the situation continues to get worse for Democrats. 

As Catanese sums it up: “The lesson of the tumultuous past 45 days is that the contours of the political landscape can change in an instant — and a death, a retirement or a top candidate’s decision not to run can wreak havoc on the best laid political plans.”

Heidi Przybyla and Kim Chipman, both of Bloomberg News, don’t say so explicitly, but in their article today about the just-announced retirement of moderate-Democrat Evan Bayh (D-IN) from the U.S. Senate, they do consider the possibility.

“Indiana Democrat Evan Bayh’s decision to retire from the U.S. Senate complicates his party’s efforts to retain control of the chamber at a time when public disapproval of Congress is at its highest level in 18 years,� write Przybyla and Chipman.

With Democrats still smarting from losing their 60-seat, veto-proof majority with the election of Scott Brown in last month’s Massachusetts shocker – combined with Congress’s 75% disapproval rating – there is growing worry among the Left that majority control of the self-proclaimed “most deliberative body� in the world may indeed be at stake this November.

Interested readers should CLICK HERE to read the full article from Bloomberg online.

New data out indicates that voters are beginning to sour on Obama as the generic Republican candidate is in a statistical tie with the President on a generic ballot.

The problem is not an issue with the Democratic base (although many of the wave voters will not turn out again), but Independents are sorry that the change they voted for was not necessarily the change they wanted:

Most Democratic voters and Republican voters plan to support their own party’s candidate for president in the 2012 election. Independents currently show a greater preference for the Republican candidate than for Obama, by 45% to 31%, though about one in four do not have an opinion.

Losing Independents by this margin during mid-terms is an indication of impeding losses by Democrats - especially the Republican-leaning seat they’ve picked up over the past two election cycles.

Will Republicans win enough seats to win back the house?  I’m not sure yet, but we will certainly win enough to make a stand on the rest of Obama’s legislation.  Regardless, Obama’s political strength is eroding.  Not just in this survey, but he was unable to motivate “wave” voters to turn out in Massachusetts, New Jersey and Virginia.

This is going to be a tough cycle for Democrats.