GOP pollster Chris Wilson, who recently worked on the Utah Senate primary for Republican nominee Mike Lee, said if proven true, the charges pose challenges to new media organizations who are desperate for fresh numbers about elections across the nation.

“The organizations that have been implicated in these scandals – the R2K and Strategic Visions of the world – have sprung up over the last decade to service the needs of these kinds of clients,� said Wilson.

But he also said it should serve as a warning to those scanning the plethora of pollsters out there, attempting to separate the cream of the crop from the illegitimate.

“You can’t forge a live operator survey. That’s why live operator is the gold standard. Any legitimate pollster will be happy to tell you where their call center is located, will let you listen in on interviews via telephone and will send you their raw data set. Anyone using a pollster who won’t do these things should be concerned,� he said.
Read full article here.

In the latest Gallup survey, results show that more Americans identify themselves as politically conservative more so today than in the last 18 years.  Gallup has been tracking this trend for over two decades - see their charts below:

Seven in 10 Republicans continue to call themselves conservative, similar to 2009, while most of the remaining Republicans identify as moderate. Since 2002, however, the percentage conservative has increased by 10 points.

Independents today are slightly more likely to say they are moderate than conservative, with fewer than 20% identifying as liberal. While this is similar to 2009, it represents an increase in conservatism among this group since 2008.

Bottom Line

The ideological orientation of Americans seen thus far in 2010 would represent a record-high level of conservatism (since at least 1992) if it is maintained for the full year. This follows an increase in the percentage of conservatives in 2009 that was fueled by heightened conservatism among independents, a pattern that continues today.

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com posted a chart outlining the probablilty index of each party holding a particiular number of Senate seats after the 2010 election cycle.  Because national trends continue to be against the Democrats, one must wonder if the “toss-up” catagory will continue to expand.

WRS is happy to post a guest piece by Field Strategist Amelia T. Chasse.

Sharron Angle’s surprising but decisive win in the Nevada Senate primary has given veteran Senator Harry Reid an opponent who is his antithesis; a brash, fiery outsider competing with the ultimate insider for a vulnerable Senate seat in a critical midterm election. In order to pull off a victory against the entrenched Senate Majority Leader, Angle must quickly transition from the small-time retail campaigning that made her a State Assemblywoman into building the organized statewide campaign infrastructure that will make her a Senator. A few pointers:

1. Run against Reid, not Obama.
In states with relatively popular Democratic incumbents, Republican candidates would do well to tie their opponents to an increasingly unpopular President. This is not the case in Nevada. While Obama’s approval rating is at 45-50% according to most polls, Reid’s hovers around an anemic 35%, making him significantly less popular than the President. Angle needs to focus the campaign on Reid, and avoid engaging Obama if he shows up to stump for the Senator. Approval numbers for Congress as a whole are even lower than Reid’s, having recently dipped under 20%, so all attempts should be made to tie Reid to Nancy Pelosi and his other colleagues in the increasingly unpopular legislative body.

2. Run a tight ship.
Angle already has the support of the activists, which is great for building community organizations and recruiting volunteers. This type of support can be powerful when harnessed, and in turn, can become a liability if allowed to run wild. To run a successful general election campaign against an entrenched incumbent, Angle must bring in professional campaign staff and consultants, and do so quickly, in order to whip her very informal organization into the focused, disciplined campaign she will need to win. A campaign with a cohesive strategy and a solid infrastructure will be able to direct and manage Angle’s strong grassroots support, and convert it into votes on Election Day.

3. Message, message, message.
Angle will be the target of a constant barrage of attacks from Reid, high-profile surrogates, and Democrat special interest groups. Angle’s campaign must have impeccable message discipline when responding to these attacks in order to avoid being backed into a corner and looking inconsistent and amateurish. This requires a defined message, a strong communications team, and a rapid-response operation to rival Clinton’s famous 1992 “war room.� It also requires the candidate herself to be as disciplined and on-message as her campaign.

4. Use the enthusiasm gap.
According to a recent Gallup poll, enthusiasm levels among GOP voters are the highest they have been in decades, even higher than they were leading up to the 1994 Republican Revolution. There is also a 15-point enthusiasm gap between the two parties, with 59% of Republicans and only 44% of Democrats describing themselves as “more enthusiastic than usual� at the prospect of voting in the upcoming election. Nevada’s electorate is composed of 43% Democrats, 35% Republicans, and about 20% Independents. However, following the 2006 midterm election, the number of registered voters in each party was about equal, so it is likely that a statistically significant percentage of registered Democrats are so-called “Obama Democrats� that are less likely to vote in a midterm election. This means that a strong GOTV operation alone could carry Angle to victory.

5. Build out, not up.
Angle doesn’t need to worry about energizing the base, so however tempting it may be to revel in the adoration of thousands of hard-core supporters, it is essential she focus on coalition-building. Angle has voter enthusiasm and momentum on her side, but Reid is certain to have a strong turnout operation of his own. To ensure victory, Angle needs to have better numbers as well as a better operation heading into Election Day. Fortunately, Reid’s low approval numbers indicate that a significant amount of Independents and Democrats are disenchanted with their Senator. The Angle campaign needs to devote a significant amount of its energy and resources to reaching out to these Independents and soft Democrats, perhaps by garnering a few key bipartisan endorsements and emphasizing non-controversial policy proposals. If Angle is able to run an inclusive campaign focused on kitchen table issues that effect all Nevadans, it will pay off in November.

Amelia can be reached at atchasse@gmail.com.

Congressional job approval remains in the basement according to a new Gallup Survey. Just 1 in 5 Americans (20%) approve of the job Congress is doing, which is only 4% higher than the historical low for a midterm election recorded in March.

As Election Day continues to get closer, Congress’s low approval rate bodes well for GOP pick-ups in the fall.

Congratulations to Mike Lee on his victory in yesterday’s GOP primary in for the Utah Senate nomination. With 99.2% of precincts reporting, Lee defeated Tim Bridgewater 51.1%-48.9%.

Lee will face restaurant owner Sam Granato, who ran uncontested for the Democratic nomination, in the general election. A Democrat hasn’t been elected to the Senate from Utah in 40 years.

See below an interesting chart on President Obama’s approval rating regarding his handling of the gulf oil spill.  The data reflects an average of all publically released survey results on the matter.

From the Prism Information Network:

Another series of primary/run-off elections will be held today featuring action in Utah and the Carolinas. Mississippi also has run-off voting scheduled for tomorrow but not for a competitive federal office.

 

Turning to the Senate, Utah Republicans will go to the polls to choose a replacement nominee for Sen. Robert Bennett who was defeated in the May 8^th GOP nominating convention. In the Beehive State, if no candidate receives 60% of the vote in convention, a primary is scheduled between the top two finishers. Bennett placed third behind business consultant Tim Bridgewater and Salt Lake attorney and former gubernatorial staff member Mike Lee.

 
 

Considering the winner of tomorrow’s race will be the eventual Senator and serve at least until the beginning of 2017 and quite possibly beyond, the campaign has been rather anti-climatic. Fundraising has been light. Through the June 2^nd financial disclosure report, the pre-primary filing period for Utah, Bridgewater had raised just shy of $575,000 with Lee only at $416,000. Alcohol Beverage Control Board Chairman Sam Granato is the Democratic nominee, and he only managed to gather $85,000 before his party’s convention. Granato is not expected to be a viable opponent in the heavily Republican state.

 
 

A low turnout primary suggests that both Bridgewater and Lee are alive to win the GOP nomination and become Utah’s next Senator.

 
 

Across the country in South Carolina, another incumbent appears to be on the precipice of defeat. Attracting only 28% of the vote in the June 8^th primary, veteran Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC-4) is the decided underdog to Spartanburg County Solicitor (District Attorney) Trey Gowdy. The challenger is attacking from the right, armed with Tea Party support. The incumbent talks about “changing Washington” and the “mistakes” that he has made, which is normally not a winning formula for an office holder on the ropes. In one of Inglis’ video promotions, he mentions Rep. Joe Wilson’s (R-SC-2) famous “you lie” comment, but says his colleague should have directed the remark toward every member of Congress. Inglis fails to mention that he voted in favor of the official resolution the House passed disparaging Wilson, however. Expect Gowdy to unseat Inglis tomorrow and win easily in November.

 
 

In the Governor’s race, the battle between state Rep. Nikki Haley and GOP Congressman Gresham Barrett (R-SC-3) will also be decided. Haley just missed winning the nomination outright two weeks ago, and is viewed to be a heavy favorite tomorrow. State Sen. Vincent Sheheen is the Democratic nominee by virtue of his outright primary victory.

 
 

In Barrett’s open 3^rd district, two conservative candidates are battling over who will become the GOP nominee and next Congressman from the safely Republican western Palmetto State congressional district.

 
 

Evangelical pastor Richard Cash, a father of eight who supports term limits and won’t accept PAC money, placed first in the original primary election. He faces state Rep. Jeff Duncan, who enjoys the backing of the Club for Growth and Red State founder Erick Erickson, along with a preponderance of local Republican officials. The outcome of this race is difficult to peg and could be close. Duncan has a decided money advantage. Cash is strong with grassroots supporters.

 
 

In North Carolina, a congressional run-off occurs in the Charlotte area’s 8^th district, where a heated battle is occurring between businessman Tim D’Annunzio and former sportscaster Harold Johnson for the right to oppose freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D) in November. The campaign has been marred with attacks about D’Annunzio and his past. Virtually the entire GOP establishment, including ex-Rep. Robin Hayes (R-NC-8), who represented the district for ten years, and the House GOP leadership along with many of the local county Tea Party organizations, have endorsed Johnson. This race has the potential to be close in the general election.

 
 

New Gallup data released this morning shows that the enthusiasm of voters identifying themselves as Republican is significantly higher than it was in 1994 when the GOP won dozens of seats to take control of Congress.

Enthusiasm is directly linked to turn-out.  The more enthusiastic an electorate, the more likely they are to vote.  In this case, Republicans are most likely to vote party-line giving the GOP a boost at the ballot boxes in November.  This phenomenon will flip a number of swing-districts back to Republicans, but is it enough to give the GOP enough wins to take back Congress?

While Democratic voters are less enthusiastic than their Republican counterparts, the lack of interest is not as low as it was in 1994.  One could argue that this is enough Democratic interest to be competitive.  However, the Republicans maintain a 15-point lead in enthusiasm this year (59% - 44%) and only a 10-point lead (42% - 32%) in 1994.  So, this lead could make the difference.  But, will it be enough?

Republicans must still run strong races.  That requires raising money, running strong ads, targeting swing populations, and getting their people to the polls.  The enthusiasm boost will help bring in more money and allow Victory operations to spend less to get people out to the polls, but we shouldn’t take for granted that Republicans will automatically turn-out.