This is my first blog post on our site, and I could not think of a more appropriate time to discuss my area of expertise in the WRS world—Pennsylvania Politics—than now. Yesterday, the state of Pennsylvania’s longest-serving Congressman (by two days, no less), John Murtha, passed away unexpectedly at the age of 77. While I am not a huge fan of the late Congressman (and his pork-barrel spending), his death—and the special election that it creates—further cements the Commonwealth’s role as the most exciting place for Republicans in 2010.

One of the reasons why I believe that Pennsylvania is the most exciting place is because we have an exciting (and winnable) race at every level of government all over the Commonwealth. First, former Congressman Pat Toomey is favored to win the U.S. Senate Seat that has belonged to former-RINO Arlen Specter for three decades now. Both the Franklin and Marshall and Rasmussen polls conducted last month have Toomey up by more than 8 points. On the Democratic side, Specter—newly endorsed by the PA Democratic establishment at their conference—holds a 17-point lead over Congressman Joe Sestak in the May primary. In Harrisburg, Jim Gerlach’s decision to leave the Governor’s race and focus instead on keeping his Congressional seat red helps furthers our chances of winning back the Governor’s mansion in November. We can only hope that the Democrats continue to beat themselves up in the primary enough to ensure Corbett’s win this fall.

On a more localized level, every corner of the state now has a competitive Congressional race on their hands. The Southeast houses three of the most competitive races in the nation, with Gerlach’s re-election battle in the 6th, the open seat created by Sestak’s Senate run in the 7th, and now former Congressman Mike Fitzpatrick’s bid for his old seat in the 8th. All of these seats, located squarely in the Philadelphia suburbs, will cost millions of dollars to win and can change on the drop of a hat. While whoever wins the May primaries will have a significant effect on the ultimate course of the race, as of now they are all winnable by Republicans in November. Driving up the Northeast Extension 100 miles, the 10th and 11th Districts—currently represented by Democrats Chris Carney and Paul Kanjorski, respectively—are once again top GOP targets. With Hazelton Mayor (and anti-illegal immigration candidate) Lou Barletta running against Kanjorski, we can only hope that the third time is the charm. The GOP also has several candidates exploring a run in the tenth, a seat in which Republicans held for more than forty years before Carney’s 2006 victory. In the Western part of the state, the GOP is still licking its wounds from its surprise loss in the 3rd District last cycle (Kathy Dahlkemper), and the 4th (Jason Altmire) and 12th (Murtha) are becoming more and more interesting every day with the addition of new candidates and, quite frankly, unexpected deaths.

Obviously, the first race to be decided will be the 12th, which should be filled through a special election sometime this spring. Governor Ed Rendell has hinted that that this election will coincide with the May 18th primaries; however, it remains to be seen who will actually run now that it is an open seat. Before Murtha’s death, there was a full primary on both sides of the aisle, with 2008 nominee William Russell looking to lead the GOP pack. Now everyone under the sun, including former Lieutenant Governor Mark Singel, has been mentioned as a possible candidate in this race. Today, the Cook Political Report moved the seat into the “toss-up� category. I personally believe that depending on who the candidates are, the Republican shift of the voting electorate in the district (as it was the only district nationwide that voted for Kerry in 2004 and McCain in 2008) and the current political climate make this seat one that Republicans have a solid chance of winning.

It is funny—eight years ago, the State Legislature redistricted Pennsylvania to make it more Republican. Today, Democrats hold 12 of the state’s 19 Congressional Districts. Maybe we will learn our lesson before gerrymandering the districts in 2012, but until then, Pennsylvanian Republicans can look forward to 2010 with optimism and excitement.

Tags: Barletta, Corbett, Fitzpatrick, Gerlach, Murtha, Pennsylvania, Specter, Toomey

This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 9th, 2010 at 5:13 pm and is filed under 2010 Elections, Congressional, Statewide, polling. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.