Yesterday, I had the opportunity to see the enthusiasm surrounding the campaign of Scott Brown first-hand in Worcester, MA (a city that my deep-rooted southern accent can’t pronounce).  Hundreds of supporters brave cold weather to wave signs and rally around a state senator who has achieved front-runner status by hard-work and an unwavering resolve that our Government is making the wrong choice on a number of issues including health care.

This morning we wake to several inches of fresh snow and a forecast of more ice/snow mix over the next 24 hours.  We also find out that the latest PPP survey puts Brown ahead of Coakley 51%-46%.

The question is what does the snow do to momentum?  Who does it help and hurt?

First, I offer an anecdotal thought.  I saw excitement surrounding Brown that I haven’t seen since the 2000 Presidential race.  I was a Bush guy, but the growing support for McCain was organic, powerful and visual.  Based on the level of dedication I witnessed last night, there is little that will keep Brown’s growing base at home.  However, it’s the squishy, undecided, swing voters that are the problem here.

Coakley enjoys a voter registration advantage, but the new survey shows her losing among Independents 64%-32% as Brown manages to pick-up 19% of Democrats.  That gives Brown a real fighting chance.

There is no real way to determine how the snow will effect turnout.  My guess is that both candidates will suffer in a way, but that the excitement surrounding the Brown candidacy will put him over the top.

It will be ironic that the state where health care reform began (with Senator Kennedy), will be the same place it dies.

Tags: health care, Martha Coakly, Massachusetts Senate, Polling Analysis, Scott Brown

This entry was posted on Monday, January 18th, 2010 at 10:43 am and is filed under 2010 Elections, Barack Obama, Congressional, News Commentary, polling. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.