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Party of No Campaign A Loser for DEMs
An interesting strategy deployed by the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee), the organization charged with protecting Democratic Congressional seats, tries to revive the “party of no” attack on Republican incumbents using radio ads and robocalls. The Democrats are clearly scrambling to develop a strategy that will turn-back public anger.
Text from Robocall against Florida Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart (R):
Remember? We said it can’t happen again. But did you know Congressman [Mario] Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) voted to let Wall Street continue the same risky practices that crippled retirement accounts and cost taxpayers $700 billion, including unchecked bonuses and salaries for executives. Maybe the $81,204 he got from financial special interests mattered more than taxpayers.
According to the Politico - “A spokesman for the DCCC, Ryan Rudominer, said his committee’s message is not so much about Republican inertia as about the GOP siding with the very banks and financial institutions that many Americans blame for tanking the economy last fall.”
But, the article also highlights brutally honest thoughts from a top Democratic pollster:
“People are angry and what Democrats are trying to do is channel that anger,” said Democratic pollster Doug Schoen. “You’ve got to displace the anger onto the Republicans. If they can do that, Democrats have some hope but right now things are looking increasingly bleak every day.”
Schoen was blunt about the challenge Democrats are facing next fall. “The Democrats are trying to stem the bleeding,” the former pollster for President Bill Clinton said. “Obama’s in a free fall and, unless they stem the bleeding, they’re going to face unprecedented losses.”
Wow - harsh words from a Democratic pollster that confirms what we have been seeing nationwide. Even in deep-blue districts, voters are angry at Democrats and I doubt that this attack will move the needle. Take this data from a survey we conducted in November for Republican Congressional candidate Bill Hudak who is running against a seven-term Democrat in the very blue state of Massachusetts:
· In the 6th congressional district, which Barack Obama won 58% to 41% in 2008, a generic Democrat leads a generic Republican today by only 5 points, 43% to 38%.
· While voters approve of Barack Obama’s performance 57% to 40%, they disapprove of Congress 59% to 35%. 57% of voters have an unfavorable view of Nancy Pelosi, while 37% view her favorably.
· A plurality (49%) of voters oppose the healthcare reform legislation currently being debated in congress, while 45% support it. 68% of voters say they are very concerned about the growing national debt.
· Congressman Tierney’s “hard reelect” is at only 32%, lower than would be expected for a seven-term incumbent in a heavily Democratic district.
· Despite being nearly totally unknown at this stage of the campaign, Republican Bill Hudak earns 31% against Congressman John Tierney in a test ballot. Tierney wins 53%. Tierney won reelection in 2008 with more than 70% of the vote; the current political environment has narrowed the playing field.
Clearly, Republicans are gaining ground on Democrats in all districts. The bottom-line is that voters are pissed-off and ready for change. Of course, this anti-incumbent effect is not isolated to Democrats. But, the Democrats are catching the majority of the blame since they control both Congress and the White House.
Tags: 2010 Election, anti-incumbent, Bill Hudak, Campaign Strategy, DCCC, John Tierney, MA-6, Nancy Pelosi, Obama Approval, Politico, Polling Analysis
