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POLL CHECK: VA and NJ Governor’s races
Barring an unforeseen circumstance of events in the final week leading up to Election Day, Republican Bob McDonnell will be elected the next Governor of Virginia. As you can see from the trend line, McDonnell continues to climb and Deeds ballot test number appears to be flat in the low 40’s. So long as the McDonnell campaign focuses on turnout in the final week, he appears to be headed to a clear victory, which will be a much needed pick-up for the Republicans.
The New Jersey race appears to be the wild card. While at first glance the trend lines appear to favor incumbent Governor Jon Corzine, his re-election number have remained flat in the low 40’s. This appears to be the result of Corzine’s heavy negative ad campaign he is waging against the Republican Chris Christie in the race. While the Corzine campaign has been successful in dragging down Christie’s number to their level, Politico reports that the most recent numbers coming out of New Jersey favor Republican Chris Christie.Â
National Democrats are looking closely at the New Jersey race as a blueprint as to how to beat Republican candidates in deep-blue states. The theory: if the Democrat’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are upside down, as are Corzine’s in New Jersey, then a highly negative campaign against Republicans will inherently benefit the Democrats nominee. If Christie pulls out the Governor’s race, then the Democrats will sense real trouble in the bluest of blue states. The go negative-early-often-and-continuously strategy that Corzine has waged may have drug Christie down to his level seems to be working, but is it enough to be successful on Election Day? The question will be answered in how many people turn out and vote for the more liberal of the three candidates, Independent candidate Chris Daggett, who theoretically should be siphoning off votes from Corzine. Stay tuned. This one will come down to the wire.
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Tags: Bob McDonnell, Chris Christie, Chris Daggett, Creigh Deeds, Jon Corzine
