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Unemployment Forecast for 2010 Election: approximately 10%
A recent article in the Wall Street Journal reveals that very few economists favor another round of stimulus funding and believe that the unemployment rate will be similar to today’s level by the November 2010 election:
Just eight of 51 economists in The Wall Street Journal’s latest forecasting survey said more stimulus is necessary, suggesting an average of about $600 billion in additional spending. On average, the economists forecast an unemployment rate of at least 10% through next June, with a decline to 9.5% by December 2010.
This puts Obama and Democrats in a precarious situation, as voters are beginning to give ownership of the economy to Obama with each passing day. Blaming Bush and Republicans for the sour economy will prove to be an ineffective message in the mid-term election. This leaves only one choice for Democrats - attempt to prove that the economy is better than it actually is. Look for numerous case-studies and op-eds focusing on financial success stories as Democrats struggle to build the perception that they merely need more time. This strategy will do little to convince the millions of unemployed, who may be more engaged than Democrats would like.
Recent polling already indicates that approval of Obama’s economic policies is weakening. This puts Democrats on a slippery slope for the 2010 cycle. The question is now: can Republicans get their house in order to take advantage?
Tags: 2010 Election, Campaign Strategy, Economy, Obama, Polling Analysis
