A Quinnipiac poll released this week shows President Barack Obama’s approval ratings taking a dive in Ohio with 48% approving and 44% disapproving of how he is handling his job as president. This is down from a 67-16 split in February. Independent voters disapprove of Obama’s performance by a ten point margin (48% disapprove, 38% approve). More troubling for Obama is that more Ohio voters disapprove his handling the economy than approve (48% disapprove, 46% approve). Again, among independent voters disapproval becomes more pronounced with 56% disapproving how Obama is handling the economy.
This survey follows on the heels of a survey by the Democrat polling firm Public Policy Polling showing Obama’s job approval dipping to 51% approve – 40% disapprove. While two surveys in the summer of 2009 will not put Ohio in the GOP column in November 2012, the trend in this critical swing state in encouraging for Republicans. If nothing else it shows that the “Obama Brand” is not immune to his mishandling of the economy.
Taking a look at other swing states the economic problems could spell trouble for Obama. In states where the margin in the 2008 Presidential race was less 5%, 5 states have an unemployment rate higher than the national average. Obama won 4 of these states (North Carolina, Indiana, Florida and Ohio), contributing 73 votes to his Electoral College total.
In these swing states, Obama’s job approval numbers have taken a hit. Currently, there is publicly available polling in three of the four swing states Obama won.
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North Carolina (view trend):
- Current: 50% approve, 37% disapprove (Insider Advantage, June 22)
- Down from: 66% approve, 25% disapprove (Public Policy Polling, January 18)
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Florida (view trend)
- Current: 46% approve, 50% disapprove(Rasmussen, June 22)
- Down from: 65% approve, 34% disapprove (Rasmussen, December 10)
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Ohio: (view trend)
- Current: 49% approve, 44% disapprove (Quinnipiac, July 1)
- Down from: 67% approve, 16% disapprove (Quinnipiac, Feb 2)
Assuming (and it is a big assumption) that these trends continue, and Indiana reverts to its historically Republican tendencies, the GOP could potentially pick up 73 electoral votes. While 73 Electoral College votes are not enough to get the GOP nominee to 270 votes in 2012, it does give us a place to start. The lesson here is that Obama, despite the media’s repeated assertions, is human. His overpromising and under delivering on the economy is beginning to take its toll.
