GOP Strategist Mike Murphy has a great article in Time magazine that reiterates what I’ve been saying since the exit polling showed a huge win by Obama among youth and Hispanic voters - simply, the way for Republicans to retake power is to target Hispanics and youth with new messages.

Murphy suggests that the shifting demographics requires a change in ideology:

In 1980, Latino voters cast about 2% of all votes. Last year it was 9%, and Obama won that Hispanic vote with a crushing 35-point margin. By 2030, the Latino share of the vote is likely to double. In Texas, the crucial buckle for the GOP’s Electoral College belt, the No. 1 name for new male babies — many of whom will vote one day — is Jose. Young voters are another huge GOP problem. Obama won voters under 30 by a record 33 points. And the young voters of today, while certainly capable of changing their minds, do become all voters tomorrow.

Rather than face up to all this, too many in the GOP are stuck in a swoon of nostalgia. Most of our party leaders come from bloodred GOP states or safe districts, so they are far more at home in the tribal politics of Republican primaries than in those of the country as a whole. You could say their radio dials are stuck on AM. The result is we hear a lot about going back to “the winning ways of Ronald Reagan.” Well, I love Reagan too. But demographics no longer do. In 1980, Reagan beat Jimmy Carter by 10 points. If that contest were held again today, under the current demographics of the electorate per exit polls, the election would be much closer, with Reagan probably winning by about 3 points.

It is true that attitudes change. A magnificent Republican renewal may still be possible. Conservatism is traditionally energized by a reaction to liberal excess, and the unabashedly leftish tilt of the Obama Administration’s domestic agenda does give hope. But demography is a powerful force. Waiting and hoping didn’t do much for the Whigs. I prefer a Republican reformation right now.

Young voters need to see a GOP that is more socially libertarian, particularly toward gay rights. With changing demographics come changing attitudes, and aping the grim town elders from Footloose is not the path back to a Republican White House. The pro-life movement can still be a central part of the GOP — it has support among all ages (and a slim majority of Latino voters) — but the overall GOP view on abortion must aggressively embrace the big tent.

Latinos need to see a quick end to the Republican congressional jihad on immigration. That shouldn’t be a hard lesson for the GOP to learn; every 2008 presidential-primary candidate who went for the cheap applause of the anti-immigration right couldn’t win even the Iowa caucus, let alone the nomination. Instead, the GOP should support practical immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship. Republicans should differentiate themselves from the left by heating up the lukewarm American melting pot with a firm insistence on learning English and a rejection of the silly excesses of identity politics. A smart GOP would be deeply in the microloan and free-English-lessons business in immigrant communities. Illegal immigrants can’t vote. Their children will.

Much of this is still heresy to the party as it stands now. Many will support an alternative strategy: stand pat, fight it out on fiscal issues on which the GOP has strong support and exploit liberal-Democrat excess. In the short term, that could work, but eventually the demographics will win out. Saving the GOP is not about diluting conservatism but about modernizing it to reflect the country it inhabits instead of an America that no longer exists.

While I do agree that the GOP must take a drastically new approach, I disagree that a wholesale change in ideology is required.  As I’ve pointed out before (see related posts below), those voters who have defected from the Republican party didn’t necessarily leave because we were the party of pro-life, pro-guns and pro-traditional marriage.  These voters left because we didn’t communicate with them about issues they cared about more (economy, jobs, taxes, education, health care, etc).

The immigration fight, no doubt, is a major hurdle to cross with Hispanics and party faithful.  The truth is that there is likely no good answer, as compromise to attract this critically important group (Hispanics) will alienate core supporters - and, more importantly, major donors.  But, until we cross that bridge (or fence!), Republicans must address issues that resonate with these voters - hint, its more likely fiscal than social!

Youth voters require a similar, delicate approach.  First, I don’t buy that gay marriage is at the heart of the issue with the party’s split with younger voters.  In fact, I have yet to see any data supporting that theory.  The truth is that Democrats have done a much better job communicating with and attracting youth.  This has allowed Dems to paint the Republican party as a bunch of old, white guys who are out of touch.  Any political strategist can tell you that when you fail to communicate effectively with a subsegment, you will lose them to the opposition - no matter what message they’re selling.  I have a tendency to believe that is true in this instance.

The bottomline here is that our party will have to target and win back Hispanics and youth voters one race at a time.  There is no magic bullet at the national level to solve this problem.  Individual campaigns are working right now to attract these voters back to the party.  No RNC strategy or program can reintroduce the GOP to these voters better; however, the RNC can give campaigns tools and resources to target the subsegments effectively.

As I see it, a wholesale ideology change is not the answer.  A change in our communications strategy is what’s required.

Related Posts:

Voters may say they’re Independents, but are actually lost Republicans

Can Republicans win by Moderating?

2010 Looking better for GOP, as Independents Lean Right

Conservative vs Moderate Strategy Unhealthy for GOP

Tags: 2010 Election, Campaign Strategy, Conservatives, Hispanic Voters, Ideology, Mike Murphy, Polling Analysis, Time, Youth Vote

This entry was posted on Monday, June 15th, 2009 at 7:15 am and is filed under Issues, News Commentary, polling. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.