While this isn’t research specific, I found it worth writing about on a slow day after Christmas. 

I served as Executive Director of the Republican Party of Texas when George W. Bush was elected Governor.  The first time I met the Governor elect was at a luncheon in which we were seated next to each other.  Rather than talk politics, we spent the entire hour or so talking sports.  The Governor knew that I was a University of Oklahoma grad, and he delighted in hazing me over the recent string of OU losses to the University of Texas.  I quickly changed the subject to the Texas Rangers. 

Point is, I found Governor elect and future President to be engaging, intellectual but still the type of regular guy you enjoyed hanging out with.  That’s not the same person most people have seen over the past eight years.

That’s why I found Karl Rove’s column in today’s WSJ to be so interesting.  Karl discusses an ongoing reading contest between he and the President, and details Bush’s reading list going back to 2006.  While Rove regularly wins the contest (one would imagine being President takes up enough time that finding time to read might be challenging), the length of Bush’s list in not unimpressive.

For instance, in the past year the President has read, according to Rove, 40 total books (compared to 51 in 2007 and 95 in 2006) — including David Halberstam’s “The Coldest Winter,” Rick Atkinson’s “Day of Battle,” Hugh Thomas’s “Spanish Civil War,” Stephen W. Sears’s “Gettysburg” and David King’s “Vienna 1814.” There’s also plenty of biography — including U.S. Grant’s “Personal Memoirs”; Jon Meacham’s “American Lion”; James M. McPherson’s “Tried by War: Abraham Lincoln as Commander in Chief” and Jacobo Timerman’s “Prisoner Without a Name, Cell Without a Number.”  Each year, the President also reads the Bible from cover to cover, along with a daily devotional.

Read the entire Rove piece at: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123025595706634689.html

TOPIC #1)  KENNEDY EDUCATION RECORD AT ISSUE

Joel Klein says Caroline Kennedy’s education experience has prepared her for the big leagues of the U.S. Senate and describes her as a highly focused, efficient and hands-on fundraiser who helped rake in more than $200 million in private-sector contributions for city schools. But several people who worked with Kennedy during her department service take a markedly less grandiose view of her accomplishments.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1208/16803.html

The only thing Kennedy has experience doing is raising money for NYC schools.  That may make her an excellent fundraiser, allowing her to build a war-chest of tens-of-millions of dollars, but it certainly doesn’t prepare her for the US Senate.

I’m really surprised that the message isn’t framed better here.  The message her camp and other supporters should be concentrating on is that she is an outsider with insider connections.  Appointing her to this seat would be the very definition of change.  New York would be putting a savvy, smart and strong woman who commands respect by her very name to take their problems to DC and get results.  I would imagine that after the mess with the Illinois appointment, the Obama messaging gurus are staying far away from this.

One article says that she brought “star power� to the NYC School System.  They used this “star power� to raise more money.  Make no mistake, Caroline Kennedy will only be bringing “star power� to Capitol Hill.  Trying to sell her limited role in NYC schools is a stretch.  Appoint a star or appoint someone else that has real experience.

The people of NY need to know that appointing a “star� has its advantages and disadvantages.  I think the issue of her only averaging approximately 3 hours in the office a day may be a glimpse of her overall work ethic.  The question should be, at this point, if she is appointed – will she commit fully?

Furthermore, will she be ready to make the tough decisions?  Everything coming out of her camp has been very “middle of the road.�  Can we expect her to be a whisper instead of a yell in DC?  It’s hard to be effective in the Senate without being capable of rocking the boat every once in a while.  She has given us nothing to judge her by that indicates that she will be a “take charge� type of Senator.  So, I ask again, do New Yorkers want a star or someone who has more experience?

TOPIC #2 ARE DEMOCRATS THE NEW ETHICS STORY? IS BLAGOJEVICH IS JUST THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122964897338520479.html

The Democrats have some serious problems that aren’t going to go away soon.  Blagojevich is just the one that’s making headlines now, there are probably about a dozen more Congressmen – many who were re-elected last month – who have to answer for some unethical, and perhaps even illegal actions.

One thought here – you get what you sow.  When Democrats took the majority in 2006, they did so because Republicans were facing significant sandals.  In 1994, when Republicans took Congress they did so because the Democrats were facing scandals, too.  Both parties promised to reform Washington – Republicans in 1994 and Democrats in 2006.  Both parties blamed lobbyists for the problem and passed law after law until lobbyists were so far removed from the process that many question their effectiveness now.  The problem now is that the problems are still present, but the lobbyists and lobbying loop-holes are no longer there to take the fall.  We have finally stripped away the layers to find the true root of the problem – greed.

The earmarking process is still the catalyst for corruption on Capitol Hill, and in this game of hot potato, Democrats have been caught with the spud.  The news stories about on-going investigations will not disappear in the near future.  I think you will see Obama distance himself from the machine on Capitol Hill.  Likewise, I think you will see Speaker Pelosi and other leadership make some tough decisions, hanging a few rotten eggs out to dry.

No matter what Obama and Pelosi do, we may see trials, investigations and embarrassing revelations come out about a number of Democrats, softening their stronghold going into mid-term elections.  One thing is certain – the Republicans have not forgotten how they were treated and will work to keep these stories in the news.

According to a poll by Fox News, almost eight in ten (77%) Americans will greet another person with Merry Christmas. That breaks down to 87% of Republicans and 72% of Democrats.

While I personally prefer to be wished a happy Festivus right before the feats of strength and airing of grievances begin, it’s clear from these numbers that the sensitivity surrounding our Holiday greetings is another example of political correctness run amok. 

According to this data, wishing someone “Happy Holidays” in an attempt to be inclusive could potentially backfire. Christians tend to take offense at the watering down of the holiday. Some department stores, who have instructed their employees to wish customers “Happy Holidays”, have faced angry boycotts as a result and this data shows they are doing more harm than good with their orders.  Some groups have assembled a “Naughty or Nice” list of retailers based on their Christmas greetings!

Democrats (28 percent), urbanites (28 percent) and Northeasterners (25 percent) are among those more likely to say they feel pressured to use a generic “Happy Holidays” greeting.  Conversely, in addition to Republicans (again, at 87 percent), regular churchgoers (82 percent) and rural Americans (83 percent) are more likely to say “Merry Christmas,” the poll found.

Curiously, the data also shows that one in five (21%) Democrats had their company holiday party canceled this year.  More change to believe in.

Two interesting new surveys are out today and they show an interesting story about perceptions of the U.S. economy. 

ABC News/Washington Post in data collected 12/11-14 among 1,003 adults nationwide show the following:

• Nearly half (48%) of Americans are optimistic about the state of the national economy over the next 12 months while 50% are pessimistic.
• More than two-thirds (68%) of Americans are optimistic about their own families’ financial situation over the next 12 months; only 29% are pessimistic.

In fact, according to ABC/WaPo optimism about the national economy is actually higher today than it was in December of 2007.

But, before we get too excited, Gallup gives us this headline, “Idea of Economic Depression Becoming Less Farfetched”.  According to Gallup data from the same period as the ABC/WaPo poll (December 12-14) and among the same audience (1,008 adults nationwide), 74% of Americans now believe it is likely that the U.s. will be in a Depression within the next two years and 35% think it is very likely to happen.

So which is it? Are Americans fairly well split on the future of the economy while still being optimistic about their own financial health, or are we all preparing for a Depression?

Some interpretation of the data suggests the former.  The Gallup report highlights the increase in the “very likely” response from 20% in March to 35% in the December survey.  This is certainly a jump but it also highlights something important–only a little over one-third of Americans are convinced the economy will slip into Depression, the rest are at worst unsure.

So, Americans are far from convinced that we are headed for a Depression.  And almost as many Americans are optimistic about the economy over the next year as are pessimistic.  Add to that the common observation that Americans remain much more optimistic about their own situation than about that abstraction we call “the economy” and we have a not-too-dire picture of Americans’ expectations for the coming year.

So what does this all mean?  To oversimplify a lot, the consumer side of the economy is about expectations.  If people think it is going badly then they will stop spending and it will go badly; on the other hand if people are generally optimistic, they’ll keep spending and things will go well.

Now that leaves out a lot of issues to do with credit and the production economy.

But at least in this one regard the data suggests that the fundamentals of the economy are…well, you know.

 

 

Every time I turn on the TV, read a newspaper, or puruse the blogosphere I see stories of major financial losses, families losing their jobs and houses, and the world economy slowly decending into hell.  Several days ago, several newspapers and TV news shows reported on anctedotal increases in church across the country; however, the truth is that recent polling indicates no such increase.

In fact, church attendance is among the lowest measured levels in years.

Americans may not be attending church more in these ever darkening days, but it doesn’t necessary mean that they are relying on God any less than before.  I would imagine that people all over the world are finding themselves praying more and more these days.

Recent polling shows that Americans in general are pessimistic right now about the future economic situation in the country, many are optimistic aboutPresident-Elect Obama’s performance so far.

With President Bush’s 8 years in office coming to end in just over 30 days, his job approval rating are up slightly to 24%, from 21% in October.  But 65% of Americans are pleased with the way President-Elect Obama has handled things recently, showing some optimism for the future.

Congress approval ratings, while jumping 2%, remain dismal at 10%.  And those Americans that feel the country is on the right track has actually fallen to 28%, from 30% in November. 

Those who felt secure in their jobs also fell from 64% to 59% now.  However, 71% of the respondents noted that they believed the economy would be doing better in the next year.

78% of Americans said they were cutting back on Christmas presents this year due to the economy and personal financial situation’s.

While the numbers are a bit gloomy for Americans right now, it is clear that President-Elect Obama’s message of hope is clearly still believed by Americans and a task that the President-Elect will have to live up to in the coming year or  Americans may quickly turn on him and the new Administration.

Earlier this week the United States Supreme Court issued a ruling against tobacco companies and effectively created a new approach for consumer lawsuits against the cigarette makers.  Specifically, the Court ruled that smokers may use state consumer protection laws to sue large tobacco companies in connection with marketing efforts surrounding “low tar” or “light” brand cigarettes.

This ruling seems to counter public opinion regarding individual responsibility where smoking is concerned.  A recent Rasmussen study showed that 71% of U.S. voters indicated that tobacco companies should not be held liable for health problems that smokers develop.  That sentiment holds among former smokers as well with an identical 71% saying that cigarette companies are not to blame.

While most voters (81% in this survey) state they are aware of the health dangers involved in smoking, the data suggests that personal responsibility should govern smoking decisions and the associated health risks and not the courts.

Rulings such as this may be why only 38% of voters gave the Court a “good� or “excellent� job performance rating.

We have conducted research for hundreds of clients that want to use the data gathered to prove their brand, product or service are superior to the competition’s.  This tactic is older than I am and is standard operation procedures for thousands of companies world-wide.

Occasionally, companies employ the execution of the research as the marketing tactic giving little attention to the actual data gathered.  One of the best known uses of the execution of research as a marketing tactic occurred in 1975 when Pepsi Cola initiated the Pepsi Challenge, hosting blind taste tests in malls, shopping centers and other public locations.  The Pepsi Challenge was taped and ran as a series of television and print ads highlighting that most of the people that participated in the taste test preferred Pepsi.

The methodology behind the Pepsi Challenge isn’t completely sound; however, the ads showing the execution of the research were very effective, helping start the “cola wars” while increasing Pepsi’s market share.

Now, Burger King is using a similar taste test ad campaign, scouring the earth to find people who have had no exposure to McDonald’s or Burger King.  These people are appropriately termed Whopper Virgins.

It’s too early to determine the success of this new campaign; however the full-length video available at their website is an excellent example of how to use the execution of research as a marketing campaign, proving that occasionally the results are less meaningful than the research itself.

Jason Hinton worked as a research analyst at WRS during the 2006 election cycle and was a first class person and a very valuable employee.  He left WRS after he was called up by the Guard and sent overseas.  It was a confidential assignment and he couldn’t tell us where he was being deployed to.  On Monday, Jason lost his battle with cancer.  He was only 29 years old.  Our hearts go out to his wife Samantha and his family will be in our prayers during this Christmas season.

Following is the notice from his wife and Mother-in-Law:

I am sending this out in the hopes of reaching everyone who knew Jason, even if just for a moment. He lost his battle to cancer on Monday. I would love to see everyone he ever knew at the memorial service. He was such and amazing man, and I am honored to have been on this journey with him. I know email is a bit impersonal for news like this, but his cell phone was new, and didn’t have many numbers in it. The important thing to me is that we don’t miss getting this information to anyone that knew him. Feel free to contact me with any questions, or just to talk about him. Texting is easiest, but feel free to email or call if you can. Thank you.

Samantha

Dear Everyone:
Please forward this to anyone I may have left out.
Jason passed at 4:15 pm on December 15th, quietly and peacefully, surrounded by people who love him. He was 29 years old and had battled lung cancer for 14 months after an initial Stage 3 diagnosis. Jason was a healthy non-smoker. This was one of those insidious genetic things. Doctors think he may have had the disease an amazing 2 to 2 ½ years total. It is a testament to his strength, and to Sam’s, that he battled so long.
He had been in ICU for 2 days and in the hospital a few days before that. He stayed home with his wife as long as he could because that was his favorite place. He spent most of Thanksgiving week in Muskogee, where he was born, with his beloved Grandma Mary and lots of extended family and, amazingly, had a strong appetite. What a wonderful gift for everyone to have had that time.
Kelly told me that some American Indians believe that if precipitation falls from the sky soon after a person passes, then the steps of heaven have been cleared for that person to enter. Happily, we did have some precipitation today, the morning after, in the form of freezing rain. The heavenly steps may be a bit slippery but they are all cleared.
One of the last bits of national news Jason heard before passing was that a football player named SAM (Bradford) who is from his alma mater, OU, had won the Heisman Trophy Award. I am sure Grandee and Jason are talking about that right now, as well as OU’s chances for next season! I’ve heard that the part of heaven reserved exclusively for University of Oklahoma alumni like them is right over the 50 yard line, but I can’t confirm that…
It was such a pleasure and a privilege to be Jason’s MIL (that’s mother-in-law for you non-texters out there). Sam is planning a wonderful tribute for her beloved. They enjoyed their new church. Sam said the Methodist church was the perfect compromise for his Baptist background and her Catholic one. Jason’s remains will be cremated but memories of him will go on forever in our hearts.
Thank-you everyone for all of your support.
Love, Rita

Here is Sammy’s announcement. The weather should be nice and clear. She will have more details later about a post-service food gathering:
 
Family & Friends,
 
Jason’s memorial service will be this Saturday, December 20, 2008 at 4:00pm. The service will be held at Chapel Hill United Methodist Church - 2717 West Hefner Road Oklahoma City, OK 73120. The service will include full military honors and a 21 gun salute. In lieu of flowers, please make a donation to your favorite charity in memory of Jason Hinton. The economy is bad, and charities are hurting. It is a nice Christmas tribute to the man who changed my life and made me the woman I am today. I love you all.

Samantha

With so many books, movies and shows trying to prove the accuracy of the Bible and the events in it, one would wonder as we enter this Christmas season what peoples views on such issues are.

Well, a recent poll asked Americans what they believed to be true, the book, The Da Vinci Code or the Bible?  Among the entire sample of respondents, 72% of people believed the Bible to be closer to the truth, while only 6% accepted the book on the Da Vinci Code as the truth.

23% of all Americans in the survey said they had read the Da Vinci Code and were familiar with its contents.  Among those that had read the book, 60% believed the Bible to be a more accurate account, while 10% believed the Da Vinci Code to be more accurate.

Interestingly however, there seems to be a correlation between reading the Da Vinci Code and then seeking the truth in the Bible.  Of those that read or heard about the contents of the Da Vinci Code, 44% were more likely to then read the Bible for the facts, while only 20% were less likely to study the Bible.

Interesting numbers to look at when we hear so much about keeping religion out of the classroom, in the public theater or in courtrooms.  The facts seem to show that an overwhelming amount of Americans are interested in the Biblical accounts and will search out the truth in the Bible when they are faced with differing views.