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McCain could lose popular vote and still win
There are two scenarios that could help McCain win the election, while still losing the popular vote:
1) McCain will earn a great majority of undecided voters, putting him over the top in all the states that have close races.
2) There is a real and substantial Bradley effect that will keep Obama from getting many of the remaining undecideds. One could say that this happened in 2006 to Harold Ford, Jr in the race for US Senate in TN.
I’m more inclined to believe that the undecided voters breaking to McCain is more likely. The reason for this is the same as it was in 96 when Dole won nearly all the undecided votes and in 1980 when Reagan did the same. With Obama outspending McCain nearly 5 – to – 1 and the enthusiasm behind Obama’s race, those who say they are undecided are not likely to vote for him. They are afraid to tell the pollster that they are bucking the “popular” candidate, and generally break away from the race leader.
This would allow McCain to win several key states that could put him over the top in terms of Electoral College votes. This race will be, and really has been for the past several weeks, a state-by-state strategy. Both campaigns are looking at the states they need to win and NOT the national polling averages. As we found out as recent as 2000, you can win the popular vote and still lose the Presidency.
States McCain is above 50% in (pollster.com regression estimate based on public polls):
UT, ID, OK, AL, WY, NE (all CDs), KS, TN, LA, AK, TX, KY, SC ,AR, WV=122 Evs
States where he has a significant advantage though not 50%:
GA, AZ, SD bring his total to 150.
Now, in the worst case scenario that’s it for McCain and Obama wins a 388 vote electoral landslide….that’s not beyond the realm of possibility.
But, if we buy one of two scenarios I listed above, then we can give McCain other states where Obama remains under 50%: IN, MT, FL, MO, NV, NC, ND which get’s him only to 225…you can begin to see how big the challenge is.
So we have to make some assumptions about the effects of strategy and messaging.
- If there is a really big Bradley effect and the McCain “Joe the Plumber” plus “Obama pals around with terrorists” strategies can work, OH (where Obama leads by 5 and has 50% in the pollster.com average estimator) could go McCain.  That gets him to 245 and now we start talking a path to victory.
From there there are two paths.
- Put it all on PA: Team McCain could be right about their ability to score a shocking win in PA.  If that’s true it puts McCain at 266 and he needs one of the following states to break his way (all of which Obama leads by single digits and is above 50% in….): CO, NM, VA, WA, MN, WI, MS
- Swing States Strategy: If Team McCain is wrong (and it seems like their fundamental assumption about PA isn’t being borne out), then he could win by grabbing states where Obama is only at 50%: NM and MS plus adding two of MN, WI or CO (or NH plus 1 Maine CD)…all places where Obama has single-digit leads and is around 51%.
PA certainly allows them to concentrate resources, but it also seems like a real long shot at this point.  A strategy around NM, MS, and two others is more complicated logistically and that may be why they have chosen to focus on PA.  But there’s another advantage to a swing-state strategy rather than a PA strategy—McCain could contribute resources and his presence to as many as four or even five (if he includes NH) embattled GOP Senators and could help a number of House candidates with close races with this strategy.
In PA he does little for the Party other than possibly (depending on resource allocation within the state) help a couple of Congressional candidates.
I covered this briefly in my appearance on Neil Cavuto’s show on Fox News. Also, major Kudos to Bryon Allen for his analysis:
Tags: Election, McCain, Tyler Harber
