Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research

WPA CEO Chris Wilson appeared on Fox News Your World with Neil Cavuto today to discuss a strategy in which McCain can still win.  This has been a campaign of swings, and you can expect at least one or two more between now and Election Day. This has also been called the “so you’re saying there’s a chance” strategy.

For this scenario to be plausible, you have to assume McCain wins West Virginia, Virginia, and North Carolina. That understood, McCain then needs to win…

1. Missouri
   1. The race remains in the Margin of Error of recent polling;
   2. Missouri is a very pro-life state, voters are not fans of Obama position on live birth abortions;
   3. McCain can use life issue, cloning, stem cell research, etc.
2. Ohio
   1. McCain was leading into late September in trend data, showing the electorate to be very volatile;
   2. Obama comments that voters “clinging to guns and religion” – make this about Obama being unacceptable;
   3. McCain need to capitallize on Obama’s connections to Bill Ayers, Fannie Mae executives and ACORN (voter registration fraud).
3. Florida
   1. Like Ohio, Florida has been very back and forth since the conventions;
   2. Florida voters are more hawkish on foreign policy than rest of country;
   3. McCain’s pro-Israel, pro-military stances will help here;
   4. Obama has not been seen as a strong supporter of Israel while McCain has—this matters to a large portion of swing voters in Florida.
4. Colorado
   1. This is a state Obama should have locked up through the convention, while McCain has lead in some polls as recently as last week.  However, it’s very up and down;
   2. Issue wise, domestic energy development in some parts of the state are big and this is an edge for McCain that needs to be pushed;
   3. Also social conservative issues in southeastern part of the state are key to winning—McCain has to drive up turnout CD 5 if he hopes to win.  This is a place Palin can help big.

New Hampshire is also winnable because McCain is personally popular there, but if McCain wins the first three and loses Colorado then you have a 269-269 tie and Obama wins when it’s thrown to the House.

Watch Wilson’s comments below: