The vote on the bailout was disastrous, as leadership, those connected to leadership and those retiring voted for the legislation, but rank-and-file members, on both sides of the House, voted against the bill.

Having a vote like this so close to the election is influenced heavily by politics and a fear of losing a cushy Congressional job.  Republicans and Democrats in soft seats (those seats that lean toward the other party, or are a toss-up/target seat) voted against the bill.  In their minds, they didn’t want to endanger their re-election for this vote.  This says a lot about the leaderships’ lack of convincing.

Polling is slowly coming in on the subject, but the breakdown is clear.  Those of moderate to higher incomes are solidly supporting the legislation because their investments are directly affected, while those of lower means are opposed to the bailout seeing virtually no connection to a collapsing economic system.

There is also the problem of perception.  The liberal voters don’t want the bailout because they view it as “corporate welfare.”  Conservative voters oppose the legislation because they abhor such deep government intervention.

But, all agree (in varying degrees) - the economy is in trouble and the government has to do something.  The question is how bad does it have to get for everyone to get on the same page.

Is there a difference between Republicans, Democrats and Independents on their confidence in their personal situation in regards to the economy or not?

Recent polling is showing growing concern among Americans in reference to the economy and their personal financial situations.  This could be a real concern for McCain and Republicans as the campaign presses on.

Currently the Consumer Index is just three percentage points above it’s all time low. It has dropped nearly 12 points in the last month alone.

Overall, only 10% of American adults give the economy good or excellent ratings, while 62% rate the economy as poor.  What is more interesting is that even among Party lines, Americans are fed up with the current economic situation.  Only 16% of Republicans give the economy positive ratings, and Democrats and Independents the numbers are half of that, at only 6%.

Investors are also weary of the market place, with only 11% giving the economy positive ratings, with 59% giving it poor ratings.

With today’s vote against the market bailout plan, and the numbers on Wall Street continually falling today to historic lows, one must wonder what these numbers will look like one week from now.

Both Party’s need to answer for this, and both party’s need to find a solution that works for ALL Americans to get our economy back on track without destroying capitalism and freedom of the business sector.  These numbers should be alarming to everyone, and especially to the McCain campaign.

The debate is on! Politico and Drudge Report have reported that McCain will be at the debate this evening. The question becomes will the debate affect voters? Historically speaking, most debates do little to move the numbers either way, with the exception of 1960, 1976, 2000 and 2004. In those election cycles, the debates moved the numbers because either the elections were extremely tight to begin with or because the debates were very influential in public opinion.

However, none of the debates were the same week of a major national crisis with a contentious presidential election. No debates were the same week of one of the most risky campaign moves seen in presidential campaign history- McCain’s suspension.

An assortment of debate moments over the years, whether the elections were tight or not, have made an impression with Americans.

In 1960 Nixon looked sweaty, pasty (Nixon had requested no makeup before the debate- which was a very bad decision) and rigid compared to Kennedy. Radio audiences reported Nixon won the debate, but TV audiences gave it to Kennedy.

1980- Because Carter did not debate Reagan until there was less than one week before the Election, there is not a data that shows how the debate affected voters’ decisions. Reagan led Carter by 3 points the week prior to Eday. He then won by 10 points. Again, without data to show the debate moved public opinion, it did not help Carter. The debate footage shows Reagan at ease, confident and ready to be President. He did well with “Here you go again,� while shaking his head and smiling to the American people.

Reagan Debates

1992, President George H. W. Bush kept looking at his wrist watch.

2000, Al Gore…sighed. A lot.

Tonight, regardless of everything that has happened in Washington, McCain needs to make sure he watches his temper. Obama needs to be able to say what he means in a short amount of time and pay attention (he has been accused of staring into space while others speak). Watch to see Obama interrupt McCain to push his buttons and McCain to force Obama to his point.
After McCain’s campaign suspension and the failure to come to a consensus on a financial bailout plan, the stakes are extremely high for McCain. He put a lot of political collateral in on his suspension this week and it does not appear to go as planned. To make sure that he ends this week on a high note and to mitigate the potential for tracking numbers to dip again, he needs to have a stellar performance tonight.

Obama is in a great situation going into the debate. As long as he does not have any major gaffes and is able to provide substance in his answers, he could very well continue his trend and move undecideds on to his side.

At the highest rate so far, 53% of Americans rate the economy of poor. Gallup reports, “that it one point higher than we’ve seen on the current economy ever.� From their tracking, Obama has held a 3 point lead over John McCain. Obama’s numbers peaked over McCain last week when the Wall Street collapses began to hit the news and have faltered only slightly.

Now that John McCain has suspended his campaign to deal with the economic bailout plans, he may be able to sway public perception. This could be a game changer. The possibility exists that McCain comes off looking like a Maverick, not a politician playing games. Obama could lose trust if he is seen trying to dance around the issues and not help with the financial crisis. Good campaign move or not, more than half of Americans see our economy as poor. As the candidates strategize and campaign (or in the case of John McCain, show up at work and work on the bailout legislation), know that many pessimistic voters are watching how they handle the situation.

The tracking numbers for the next few days will be very interesting- whether or not there is a debate in Mississippi.

So where do Americans stand on the $700 billion economic bailout plan?

Recent polls show Americans really do not support the bailout with only 28% supporting the idea.  Nearly 37% oppose it and 35% are undecided.

Interestingly, of the 62% of Americans who are investors the numbers are also split on the bailout plan.  36% favor it, 36% oppose it and 28% are still undecided.  Non-investors, the numbers are worse.  Only 15% of non-investors support the bailout and 41% oppose it.

What makes this interesting is that 82% of Americans are saying they are following the bailout plans closely.  The Presidential candidates have all said they will not be voting on the matter.  And with these numbers, can you really blame them!

As of right now, less than you would think.

Across the board, we see that the economy as the most important issue. Last night, the federal government, under the direction of Secretary Paulson and at the directive of President Bush, met with lawmakers in an emergency meeting. Today, Secretary Paulson held a press conference to lay out the federal government’s next moves to insert itself in to the economy and inject tax dollars.

For months, the presidential campaigns have focused on the economy. Obama has worked to tie McCain to Bush. McCain has worked against that image. Today, we see the Gallup’s numbers from a survey conducted on Wednesday that shows the political effect of the financial crisis. While 4 in 10 voters do not see the current situation affecting their vote, Obama sees a 7 point advantage among those who would let the current meltdown influence their vote. Regardless of the advantage that Obama holds over McCain, voters do not see a difference in who they believe could handle the Wall Street crisis, with 43% saying Obama would handle it best and 42% responding that McCain would.

This week, both candidates have been on the road explaining why their platform is best for handling the current situation. Both have come across problems, with McCain having to dance around regulation issues and Obama avoiding detailed answers. Both have also attacked each other aggressively, with Obama taking more of an offensive position. Regardless of what the candidates say or do for the next few weeks, they can’t pull the trigger on any of their plans. The Bush administration will proceed as it sees fit and hopefully derail further financial disaster.

The issue of abortion is, and always will be a very sensitive issue in politics.  Candidates from both sides of the aisle, at all levels of government make it known where thy stand on this issue.

This year we saw a Pro-Life Democrat Senator speak at the Democrat convention, Sen. Bob Casey, PA.  Tom Ridge, former Homeland Security chief, Republican, was widely seen as a front runner for Vice President.

The Republican Party has had an anti-abortion view in it’s platform for years and the opposite in the Democrat Party.  But both Party’s have been more accepting of the opposite view among their candidates in recent years.

Americans are split down the middle on this issue.  See table below.

49% of Americans say that abortion should be legal in some form or another, while 47% say it should be illegal in one form or another, leaving only 4% undecided.

The reality is that abortion plays a more prominent role in Primary elections and among the Party faithful in determining who on would vote for.  But it is important for candidates of both political Parties to understand Americans truly are split right down the middle on the issue of abortion. 

We guard against this by using a combination or RBS and RDD sampling.  However, it is nice to see the ABC News/Washington Post poll tested the approach, finding slight changes at most when cell-only respondents were included with a traditional land-line telephone sample.

 

Across 100 response categories the biggest difference was 2 points, which occurred in three cases. The rounded difference was 0 in 56 of the comparisons, and 1 point in 41.

 

During election season the ballot is of particular interest. Registered voters in the late August ABC poll split between Barack Obama and John McCain by 49-43 percent in the landline sample and 49-42 percent with cell-only respondents included. Among likely voters, it was 49-45 percent among landline respondents and 50-44 percent with cell-only respondents included.

 

Read the full ABC Blog post here.

Smart Money ran an article last month “3 Charities That Let Donors Call The Shots� highlighting three non-profits that entice donors by pledging to spend the money however they deem necessary.

“The opportunities these organizations offer run the gamut. GlobalGiving, for example, sponsors projects ranging from AIDS prevention in India to energy saving in the United States, while Kiva.org allows philanthropists to finance microloans to entrepreneurs in poor countries.�

This creative solution to non-profits concerns of tightening purse strings did earned media and no doubt brought in more new donors, but they have lost control over the direction of their non-profit. While it may seem ideal to let donors dictate how money should be spent, it may not always line up with the non-profit’s mission statement, budgetary needs or past and future contributions. The lack of control in recruiting donations is inherently flawed and cannot sustain long term goals. The article goes on to say:

“”Having that control is something that a lot of [donors] feel very attracted to,” says Cohen. It’s especially true for new donors.â€�

Donor enhancement is the process of increasing donations through current donors and new donors, by finding out what messages work to motivate current donors to give more and new donors to write a check. Knowing what to say when pitching to donors is half the battle. You may already know they support your cause, but you do not know why they do so or what will encourage them to invest more financially. WRS’s Donor Enhancement page has detail on new and current donors, our methodology and your deliverables. Projects like donor enhancement allow you to keep control, give the donors what they want and increase your donations.

McCain “Original Mavericks�
Overall the ad performs very closely to the Air Was averages. Republicans, of course, have very high opinions of one of the first McCain/Palin joint advertisements. Democrats remain unimpressed, finding the ad to be less than credible. This will become the case more and more as the political environment polarizes.

Obama “No Maverick�
The Obama campaign’s response to the “Original Mavericks� goes after not only McCain but also tries to beat back the Palin sensation. Democrats respond very well, giving the ad high rankings for credibility, appeal, and effectiveness. Though they find it less appealing, Independents do give the ad higher than normal ratings, indicating the Obama campaign’s success in rebutting the “Orginial Mavericks.� This is Obama being reactive, they know Palin motivated the base Republican voters and bolstered the chance for a McCain presidency. The Democrats are scrambling to find an effective hit, but I’m not sure this is it.

DSCC against Elizabeth Dole
A very workmanlike effort from the DSCC gets slightly lower ratings overall. Republicans tend to reject no only it’s message, but also its memorability, while Democrats feel the opposite. Independents give the ad low rankings across the board, demonstrating the failure of the ad to reach into the middle.

Freedom’s Defense Fund against Obama
The harsh no commentary approach used by Freedom’s Defense Fund in their ad linking Obama and Kilpatrick gets mixed results. Overall it’s strong message left impressions, despite the fact that it was not thought to be very appealing. While Independents agreed with Democrats that it wasn’t a very appealing ad, they also agreed with Republicans that it had a strong message.

Keith Fimian
Virginia CD 11 candidate Keith Fimian’s second foray into tv meets with mixed results. While voters thought its message wasn’t very strong or memorable, they also ranked it as very appealing and credible. This indicates that voters are beginning to know and like Fimian despite a less than effective message.

Overall, Freedom’s Defense Fund’s attack on Obama narrowly edges out Obama’s “No Maverick� for the most effective overall ad in voters eyes. John McCain’s “Original Mavericks� finished a close third and Keith Fimian’s “Someone� took a respectable fourth. Republicans were particularly impressed by Freedom’s Defense Fund’s ad, while nearly half of all Democrats voted for Obama’s response to McCain “Original Mavericks.�

Voters almost entirely agreed that Sarah Palin’s addition to the Republican ticket would help McCain in November. Democrats were the only group that was unsure whether her effect on the race would benefit or harm McCain.