Rassmussen’s most recent poll from July 23, 2008 shows Barack Obama with a 47%-42% lead in the swing state of Pennsylvania.
Voters in PA seem to view both candidates favorably, with McCain at 61% favorable and Obama at 58%. McCain overwhelmingly leads with those voters in PA who feel National Security is the number one issue facing America, while Obama leads among those that feel the economy is the number one issue.
All of these numbers are very similar to generic Party voting, Republicans are viewed as better with national Security issues, and Democrats with the economy.
But PA is an odd state. In the Southeast, Philadelphia and the surrounding counties, one must expect Obama to come out with a sizeable advantage. In the “T” of PA, McCain will do very well, assuming the staunch conservatives stay on board. It is in the Southwest and Northeast portions of PA that this race will be decided.
The Southwest is full of blue-collar, conservative Democrats, that I believe will have a difficult time voting for Obama. Rick Santorum in his previous wins had always done well against liberal Democrats here because of the life issue. It was not until the Democrats fielded a Pro-Life candidate in Bob Casey, Jr. that they were able to win in the Southwest.
The same holds true in the northeast portion of PA where many voters are Italian, Catholic and pro-life. It will be hard for Obama to win these voters given his stance on the abortion issue.
So while Obama leads right now in PA, don’t forget that come November it will be geography that wins in PA, not necessarily who is better on what issue.
