A poll released today in New Mexico reported a 5 point advantage for Barack Obama over John McCain. As both Senators campaign in swing states, the five electoral votes in fiercely competitive New Mexico become crucial to Electoral College mathematics.
In 2000, Al Gore squeaked through with 366 votes to take New Mexico’s electoral votes. In 2004, Rasmussen had President Bush trailing John Kerry by 7 points (43%-50%). In 2006, virtually every poll showed Heather Wilson losing without question.
Many political pundits have put New Mexico in Obama’s win column. While not even classifying the state as a possible toss up, they look to what the media says and not at what the numbers may show- possible room for McCain to overtake Obama’s advantage. They do not look at history has played out in the past- unexpectedly high turnout in conservative areas such as San Juan, Lea, Curry and Eddy counties, especially along the eastern and southeastern portions of the state.
Last month, Obama held an 8 point advantage. Two months ago, it was a 9 point advantage. Today, we are looking at Obama with a 5 point advantage. According to the poll, even when the “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 43%. For now, call it a 6 point Obama advantage. The poll shows that Obama “has a five-point edge among unaffiliated voters. McCain earns the vote from 82% of Republicans. McCain leads by thirteen among voters over 65 but trails among younger voters.”
Factors that remain to be seen: Popular Bill Richardson’s influence in turning out the Hispanic vote, particularly in the North Central region of the state. If Darren White, the Republican candidate in New Mexico’s 1st congressional district, will help mitigate expected hits John McCain will take in Bernalillo County. If the message McCain offers resonates well, as expected, with many New Mexico voters and his ties to the western states. Finally, if unaffiliated and independent voters break for the Maverick Senator from Arizona.
But this is not that great of news for John McCain. When looking back at 2000 and 2004, the national trend numbers were fluctuating and showing a greater variation. Currently, we have not seen that. Another area of major concern would be that most state polls give the advantage to Obama. According to realclearpolitics.com, Obama is currently leading in 26 states and McCain is currently leading in 24 states. Giving Obama 322 electoral votes and McCain 216. Obama is leading in every state carried by John Kerry in 2004 along with six additional states won by George W. Bush: Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, Nevada and Colorado. Virginia, which went for Bush, is considered a tie. Money, time and resources can move lean Democrat/ toss up states to John McCain. It is very possible this will occur in New Mexico. Which states can the McCain campaign compete in? It needs to be most of them. It is all about the electoral math.
